The SEC is staying pat at 16 teams…

[travis.sixpack]

For now. The doom merchants in the sports press have been been speculating for the past week about the SEC expanding again. Maybe they will when the ACC GoR runs out or becomes more buyout friendly, but it’s not happening anytime soon.
https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/s...wants-to-end-expansion-race-stay-at-16-teams/

 

[HamSammich]

Sorry, but I don’t buy it. One “anonymous” AD does not mean they are staying put. As more conferences expand, the SEC is not going to sit there and stay at 16 teams and allow market revenue to go to other conferences.

 

[birdawg]

What potential school(s) could be added to the SEC and make the $55 million per year per school figure go up, or at least stay the same (not go down)?

I think that's the challenge for the SEC. Why add schools if they don't increase revenue per school.

 

[patdog]

Key words, "for now." The SEC and Big 10 will expand again. But they're probably done for a few years. Only really attractive schools to add are in ACC, and that grant of rights is a *****.

 

[travis.sixpack]

Sorry, but I don’t buy it. One “anonymous” AD does not mean they are staying put. As more conferences expand, the SEC is not going to sit there and stay at 16 teams and allow market revenue to go to other conferences.

The BigTen is playing catchup with the SEC and what the Big12 and PAC12 does is irrelevant. Even if ND goes to the BigTen with another team, I doubt the SEC does anything. If the SEC had the desire and capacity to be a super conference, it would already have happened.

Also, if the BigTen wanted to be a super conference, why didn't it already add UW and Oregon?

 

[The Maroon Pug]

Saturday Down South? Probably means the exact opposite is going to happen.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

What is not mentioned here is who is driving this. ESPN and Fox are the people directing the super conference moves. If FSU and Clemson want to join the SEC, the powers that be will make it happen. They control the purse strings in all the conferences including the ACC. A deal will be made, it's not up to the ACC

 

[travis.sixpack]

Again, why hasn't it happened yet? Maybe: 1.) it's not worth it to the SEC to expand past 16; 2.) ESPN already has rights to the ACC and isn't going to stupidly bid against itself; 3.) $100 million buyouts/per team is not nothing, and the networks aren't going foot that bill.

 

[johnson86-1]

Sorry, but I don’t buy it. One “anonymous” AD does not mean they are staying put. As more conferences expand, the SEC is not going to sit there and stay at 16 teams and allow market revenue to go to other conferences.

I'm not sure the SEC cares about revenue going to other conferences as long as their per school revenue is the highest. There aren't a lot of schools left that are feasible adds that are going to be net positives.

UNC is an obvious one. Virginia probably also. Florida is big enough and growing enough that FSU would make sense. I think ideally you'd have a south Florida presence instead of two schools in the north, but not sure Miami brings enough to the table. Going all the way to Arizona would be get a presence in a growing state, but the logistics would be miserable for an Arizona team. Or alternatively, they could try to beef up the basketball side of the conference by adding schools like Kansas and Indiana. That would also give the blue bloods some in conference patsies to put on the schedule for football. Not sure if basketball revenue would justify that or not.

All that to say, I think it's very plausible that the SEC is sitting tight right now because the schools that make the most sense are ACC schools and they need to get closer to the end of the ACC deal for the economics to work.

 

[Smoked Toag]

Now, the big question is what does the Pac-10 do? Stand firm with 10 teams and fend off the Big 12? That's a hard decision for a Colorado or Utah or Arizona to make.

 

[onewoof]

Place your bets (yes you can in Vegas no joke) on who's next. I'm going to tell you that you can bet on Virginia and North Carolina by the 2024-2025 season.

 

[patdog]

You have to think either the PAC or Big 12 will raid 4-6 schools from the other conference. Maybe depending on whether any PAC schools will be successful in getting a Big 10 invite (they won't be).

 

[patdog]

All that to say, I think it's very plausible that the SEC is sitting tight right now because the schools that make the most sense are ACC schools and they need to get closer to the end of the ACC deal for the economics to work.

This is exactly what's happening. The SEC will expand when it makes sense to expand. The time is not right now though.

 

[Smoked Toag]

You have to think either the PAC or Big 12 will raid 4-6 schools from the other conference. Maybe depending on whether any PAC schools will be successful in getting a Big 10 invite (they won't be).

Saw an article today that says that they've discussed an alliance and both conferences see the benefit of one (yeah, yeah, I know, alliance means nothing).

 

[Smoked Toag]

Place your bets (yes you can in Vegas no joke) on who's next. I'm going to tell you that you can bet on Virginia and North Carolina by the 2024-2025 season.

Speaking of Vegas, that's exactly where I'd go if I'm the Pac-10. My HQ would be there in a second, and I'm likely adding Nevada or UNLV (probably Nevada, they have a better football history, and are big state U). Don't know who else I'd add after that, maybe Colorado State? Probably wouldn't make Colorado happy. Boise State I suppose.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

It hasn't happened yet because it's a very complicated situation. The networks are trying to maneuver the conferences around so they are not paying for the rights to low viewership programs. Pull a few teams out of the ACC and how valuable is the contact ? We saw what happened to the big 12. Not much left to bid for. Oklahoma State ? Not sure what the end result will be, but it's not over yet

 

[patdog]

It hasn't happened yet for the same reason Texas & Oklahoma are still in the Big 12 for another 1-3 years. The buyouts & rights agreements in the media deals are prohibitive and are pretty airtight.

 

[travis.sixpack]

The ACC’s grant of rights contract runs through 2036! Why should ESPN rip that up when they’ve already got Clemson and FSU?

 

[johnson86-1]

The ACC’s grant of rights contract runs through 2036! Why should ESPN rip that up when they’ve already got Clemson and FSU?

It's not clear to me how the grant of rights work. But if ESPN just has to make a fixed annual payment to the ACC for, say, FSU's home games (for all sports), And it's worth more than an incremental $17M (the payment per school in 2021 to the ACC I think), then ESPN would make enough money to pay that $17M to the ACC and keep FSU whole. But I'm not sure it's really worth an incremental $17M to ESPN.

If any money generated by broadcasting home games must be paid to the ACC (so if ESPN ups the payment for being in the ACC, those payments still have to go to the ACC), then I don't think it happens until the end of the term, or maybe a year or two early if a school decides that getting into the SEC is important enough to give up a year or two of TV revenue.
and also pay the ACC an will make enough money to keep FSU I'm honestly not sure that ever happens. It sounds like ESPN will have to pay the ACC for any revenue generated from FSU home games throughout the term of the Grant of Rights.

 

[patdog]

ACC owns the broadcast rights for FSU games through 2036. FSU is free to leave at any time. But ESPN still writes the check to the ACC through 2036. Essentially, to buy the ACC out, you'd have to pay at least $25,000,000/year to the ACC before you paid FSU (or the SEC) a dime. And that's if the ACC chose to be cooperative.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

Not a lot of attractive options out there. No one is leaving the Big whatever and ND ain't coming. UNC is probably pick number one and UVA pick number two, these will get the SEC in new, larger markets. Clempson, FSU, Louisville, Miami would probably be the next up. I'm assuming BYU has a large fanbase, but they just doesn't fit in our footprint.

 

[onewoof]

ESPN/Disney owns the live broadcast rights to the ACC Network and the SEC Network, and the Longhorn Network. Whatever will grow the revenue for either best collectively is what they will do and it will not be an issue, unless ACC member universities lose yearly revenue payout.

(Fox Sports owns Big10 live rights)

 

[bully12]

Not a lot of attractive options out there. No one is leaving the Big whatever and ND ain't coming. UNC is probably pick number one and UVA pick number two, these will get the SEC in new, larger markets. Clempson, FSU, Louisville, Miami would probably be the next up. I'm assuming BYU has a large fanbase, but they just doesn't fit in our footprint.

It's also all about viewership. In that regard, Clemson and FSU will outdraw UVA and UNC more than 2 to 1. So if I'm the SEC, I take the former rather than the latter in a NY minute.

 

[coachnorm]

What potential school(s) could be added to the SEC and make the $55 million per year per school figure go up, or at least stay the same (not go down)?

I think that's the challenge for the SEC. Why add schools if they don't increase revenue per school.

Is it not the schools or is it the markets they have? How many SEC schools in small areas can generate as much as Miami or Charlotte, NC for ESPN? Also how many SEC schools will be able to compete in the new NIL environment with local businesses contributing?

 

[ckDOG]

Which 16 teams though?

For now. The doom merchants in the sports press have been been speculating for the past week about the SEC expanding again. Maybe they will when the ACC GoR runs out or becomes more buyout friendly, but it’s not happening anytime soon.
https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/s...wants-to-end-expansion-race-stay-at-16-teams/

nm

 

[Ralph Cramden]

Just say for the sake of argument that FSU and Clemson decided they were leaving regardless of the penalties. Then ESPN would have every right to void their contract with the ACC due to the huge conference change up. Renegotiating the contract would certainly not be beneficial to the ACC. There are always ways of getting around things, esp if you control the purse strings. And ESPN does.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

It's also all about viewership. In that regard, Clemson and FSU will outdraw UVA and UNC more than 2 to 1. So if I'm the SEC, I take the former rather than the latter in a NY minute.

Concur, they have more football fans, but UNC/UVA puts the SEC in new markets and are two of the most prestigious public universities in the country. If I had to add four, they'd be UNC, UVA, FSU and Clempson

 

[patdog]

Nope. ESPN is obligated to pay the ACC to broadcast FSU & Clemson football through 2036, whether those schools stay in the conference or not. FSU & Clemson can’t sell those rights to a new conference until 2037. This article explains it. It would cost Clemson $468,000,000 to buy out of that contract right now.

https://news.yahoo.com/explaining-accs-grant-rights-roadblock-100134802.html

 

[snoopdog]

I listened to a quick podcast today and there is an out…

Nope. ESPN is obligated to pay the ACC to broadcast FSU & Clemson football through 2036, whether those schools stay in the conference or not. FSU & Clemson can’t sell those rights to a new conference until 2037. This article explains it. It would cost Clemson $468,000,000 to buy out of that contract right now.

https://news.yahoo.com/explaining-accs-grant-rights-roadblock-100134802.html

According to the North Carolina folks doing the podcast. They said if a majority (8 schools) vote to disband The ACC then the Grant of Rights is void. I have no idea if it is true. So are 8 teams better off to disband if they have a home with Big 10 or SEC? My thoughts as of now…

Boston College No
Clemson YES
Duke NO
Florida State YES
Georgia Tech ?
Louisville NO
Miami YES
NC State ?
North Carolina YES
Notre Dame ?
Pitt NO
Syracuse NO
Virginia YES
Virginia Tech YES
Wake Forest NO

 

[IPMdawg]

I don’t think the state governments are going to let them split from Virginia Tech and NC State. When the ACC expanded in 2004, the VA governor wouldn’t let UVA vote yes on any expansion team if Tech wasn’t included. The state of North Carolina wants to keep the ACC HQ in the state. It’s about to move from Greensboro to Charlotte. Also, UNC and Duke not playing twice in basketball will upset most of the state. Unlike Oklahoma, the state government will keep them together.

My prediction: The SEC stays at 16 until Notre Dame joins the Big Ten. It will take the Big Ten teams, including USC, to say they can’t play ND in non-conference games anymore due to the difficulty of the 9 game schedule. Fox will pay all the ACC buyout fees to get ND to the Big Ten. Then they add Oregon, Washington, and Stanford. The SEC will respond by adding Florida State, Clemson, and probably Miami and Oklahoma State if UNC and UVA are stuck like I think they will be. The ACC will poach Kansas, UCF, West Virginia, Baylor, and TCU. They aren’t going to be interested in managing four time zones. They will operate as a 16 team league, and you’ll have 2 super conferences, 1 semi-super, and the remainder of old Power 5 teams will end up in G5 teams. G5 conferences will need to go to 9 conference games too because they are losing opportunities to play with Power 3? conference schedules expanding.

 

[Smoked Toag]

Nope. ESPN is obligated to pay the ACC to broadcast FSU & Clemson football through 2036, whether those schools stay in the conference or not. FSU & Clemson can’t sell those rights to a new conference until 2037. This article explains it. It would cost Clemson $468,000,000 to buy out of that contract right now.

https://news.yahoo.com/explaining-accs-grant-rights-roadblock-100134802.html

ACC should launch a pre-emptive strike now while they have stability, and go get West Virginia and somebody else, to at least get to 16 and establish themselves as #3.

 

[IPMdawg]

An interesting thing I heard on some podcast recently is that if an ACC school did bolt for the SEC, ESPN could place all of their home games in ACC television spots due to the grant of rights. You could see Tennessee @ Clemson in the prime time ACC spot. If the SEC got 3-4 ACC teams, essentially ESPN could punish the ACC with giving them all less desirable tv times and channels. The grant of rights would grant them the money, but how will rankings, recruiting, and their fans be affected by it. That threat definitely lowers the buyout of the grant of rights.

 

[Dawgg]

Boston College No
Clemson YES
Duke NO
Florida State YES
Georgia Tech ?
Louisville NO
Miami YES
NC State ?
North Carolina YES
Notre Dame ?
Pitt NO
Syracuse NO
Virginia YES
Virginia Tech YES
Wake Forest NO

I think it would be either UVA OR VT and Miami OR FSU... whichever school from each state ended up with the SEC invitation.

I think you can safely say NC State & Georgia Tech are going to be NO’s without an invite to the SEC.

 

[travis.sixpack]

I love how I started this post saying the SEC was staying at 16 teams and it devolved into which teams will the league take when it expands to 20+. Never change sixpack.

 

[Dawgg]

Not sure about the credibility of this. It’s SDS quoting a single AD, speaking on behalf of 14-16 presidents.

This could be Ross Bjork still in his feelings about Texas being allowed in.