With the weak side of schedule coming at the end, I think it's really difficult for us to move off the bubble, but it's really easy for our bubble to pop.
All of our 'elite' opponents occurred before February. We've had 5 mid-tier games since Feb 1 (Mizzou x2, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Kentucky) and we split those 3-2. The rest of the February schedule has been dreck (SC x2, LSU, Ole Miss) so we've had a lot of 'must wins', but they're not 'must win' because they give us a boost. They're 'must win' because losing them would be a disaster.