Today's Who to Watch Update

[615dawg]

Last night was brutal. I felt like it was a losable game, but the way we lost it just hurts so much. This team is an aggregate of 10 points away from being 3rd in the SEC yet we find ourselves squarely on the bubble and 11th in the SEC standings. We face a real possibility of playing on Wednesday in the SEC Tournament.

A lot of basketball tonight to watch, and I'll get to that in a second, but what did last night do to our NCAA Tournament chances?

We remain 43rd in the NET, and my calculations have us as the last of the last four in, meaning we have no room for error and can't afford a bid stealer. The good news is that the mid-majors are pretty weak, but the bad news is there are some pretty decent teams on the outside looking in - meaning there are teams like North Carolina or Oregon that could get hot and win their respective conference tournaments.

Only one Power 6 (Big East) team in NET history has been in the top 40 and been left out. It was an SEC team - Texas A&M, and they were 38th. So 37th in the NET is the presumable "100% chance of making the NCAA Tournament" number. A win last night would have put us at 40th with a huge opportunity Saturday.

Texas A&M is simply a must-win game for Mississippi State to have a shot at the NCAA Tournament. Take a look at these scenarios:

MSU finishes 3-0: 87% chance of making NCAA Tournament
MSU finishes 2-1 with loss to Vanderbilt: 51% chance

These two scenarios would need a run to the SECT Championship game to get to >50% odds
MSU finishes 2-1 with loss to Texas A&M: 38% chance
MSU finishes 2-1 with loss to South Carolina: 11% chance

These two scenarios would not get to >50%
MSU finishes 1-2 with win over Texas A&M: 9% chance
MSU finishes 1-2 with win over Vanderbilt: 3% chance

All other scenarios have less than a 1% chance of making the tournament without winning the SEC Tournament.

Games to watch tonight:

We need Kentucky to beat Florida. We are getting into dangerous territory with our SEC Tournament seed. Right now we are tied for 10th, but lose the tiebreaker with Georgia (H2H). We are one game back of Florida, and we also lose the H2H tiebreaker with. But if we get two games behind Florida, Florida would lock us out of passing them, as they still have a game with LSU left.

Syracuse over Clemson
New Mexico over Boise State
NC State over Wake Forest
Iowa over Wisconsin

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Really informative stuff.

I’m not loving where we sit in terms of SECT seeding. Tied with Georgia and they have an easier last three games than us (Mizzou, Florida, @ SC).

So in theory, we could go 3-0, basically lock up an NCAAT bid, and still have to play Ole Miss or LSU on Wednesday night in the SECT.

I will say, other than the fact that you’d have to play one extra game, there’s an argument to made that the 11 seed isn’t a terrible spot to be in if you want make a run in Nashville. That path would mean you don’t have to play Bama or A&M before the semis.

At this point I’m very much in one game at a time mode. Saturday is a crucial, crucial game for us that we desperately need to win on our home court.

 

[Herbert Nenninger]

If we get to the tournament in a position where we don’t have to win it all, I dont see why a Wednesday game would be a bad thing. That would likely mean an easier chance to win 1-2 games and pad our total.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Where are you getting the calculations?

 

[SteelCurtain74]

Are these percentages based on all other games and conference tournaments going chalk?

 

[FlotownDawg]

The SEC standings are so frustrating. We were 1-7 and in 11th place. We then won five of six games and stayed in 11th place. The ridiculously hard opening schedule really 17d us. We really need to get to 10th so we don’t have to play on Wednesday. If we’re 11th, we have to play a game that cannot help us but only hurt us. We get no benefit from playing LSU or SC in the opening round. If we’re the 10 seed we play the 7 and we have a chance for a quality win. We need as many quality wins as we can get.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

LSU has beaten Vanderbilt. I don't know if that help us, but I think it does if we can win out.

Kentucky is just about to eliminate Florida. It's strange, isn't it? Every season Kentucky is going to miss the tournament, it's not your daddy's Kentucky, and then at the end of the season they put together and start winning.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

UNC struggling with a terrible Notre Dame team, a loss here would probably sink them, which is insane considering they were preseason number one in the polls.

 

[615dawg]

Where are you getting the calculations?

I take an XML file that has every game in the nation's result as COMPLETED, ASSUMED or PROJECTED.

COMPLETED results are just that. The actual results of completed games.
ASSUMED is where I adjust Mississippi State's future results.
PROJECTED is just that, a projection of results of non-Mississippi State games.

I run scenarios 1,000 times and get a percentage. Alabama was a 92.1% chance of winning at South Carolina tonight, so out of 1000 projections, 79 had South Carolina winning.

So when I run 1,000 simulations of future contests except for assumed results for Mississippi State, we end up with a certain NET ranking. 37th or higher is the assumed 100%. 38 is assumed 92%, 39 is assumed 78%, etc. This is based on historical data and what the committee has done. There is also the bid stealer outlier. The most bid steals that seem possible this year is 4, because mid-majors are down. The median bid steal scenario for 2023 is actually 1. Santa Clara is the most likely bid stealer, with Gonzaga and St. Mary's locks. Santa Clara is a 20-win team that has dominated the rest of the WCC.

So all those factors go together to pump out an IF ASSUMED+PROJECTED=CHANCE of ending season with NET of X. The lowest NET we could have with a shot at an at-large bid is 45. We are 43 now.

Saturday is a must win. Could be worth +4 in the NET.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

I take an XML file that has every game in the nation's result as COMPLETED, ASSUMED or PROJECTED.

COMPLETED results are just that. The actual results of completed games.
ASSUMED is where I adjust Mississippi State's future results.
PROJECTED is just that, a projection of results of non-Mississippi State games.

I run scenarios 1,000 times and get a percentage. Alabama was a 92.1% chance of winning at South Carolina tonight, so out of 1000 projections, 79 had South Carolina winning.

So when I run 1,000 simulations of future contests except for assumed results for Mississippi State, we end up with a certain NET ranking. 37th or higher is the assumed 100%. 38 is assumed 92%, 39 is assumed 78%, etc. This is based on historical data and what the committee has done. There is also the bid stealer outlier. The most bid steals that seem possible this year is 4, because mid-majors are down. The median bid steal scenario for 2023 is actually 1. Santa Clara is the most likely bid stealer, with Gonzaga and St. Mary's locks. Santa Clara is a 20-win team that has dominated the rest of the WCC.

So all those factors go together to pump out an IF ASSUMED+PROJECTED=CHANCE of ending season with NET of X. The lowest NET we could have with a shot at an at-large bid is 45. We are 43 now.

Saturday is a must win. Could be worth +4 in the NET.

South Carolina trying really hard to get the game back to Alabama. They're in overtime now.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Bama wins in overtimen78-76. Good thing Miller wasn't in jail because he made the winning basket while scoring 41 points.