Utah State to the Pac-12…

Maroon Eagle

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More like a sign that they are trying to keep it regional.
Maybe.

I’ve been checking out Twitter and there’s talk about UConn — UConn? — joining as a football only member and Gonzaga in basketball only but maybe other sports too…
 

Dawgg

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They’re going to peel off enough MWC teams to dissolve the MWC so they don’t have to pay the exit fees and poaching penalties. They need 9 MWC team to defect, then they’ll start trying to woo outside the MWC. Utah State saw the writing on the wall and got in the boat first.

UNLV will be next, then probably Air Force, and at least two more of the remainder. I’m thinking SJSU and Wyoming, but could be any of them outside Hawaii. I think Hawaii ends up in the FCS after this is all over.
 
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leeinator

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Good addition. Utah may not like it though. Gives them a natural in-state rival (usually it's BYU). Will give USU a boost in recruiting capability.
 

leeinator

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Well.. Utah and BYU are in the Big 12, so that would still be the state’s rivalry.

Utah State will be in the Pac-12.
My bad.....read it wrong. Thought it was the B12. I didn't even know there was a PAC12 conference any more.
 
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Dawgg

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My bad.....read it wrong. Thought it was the B12. I didn't even know there was a PAC12 conference any more.
Well… they were in dire straights, but last week, they managed to poach SDSU, Boise St, Fresno State, and Colorado State from the Mountain West. Now, they’ve picked off Utah State. If they get 4 more, they can dissolve the MWC. They’re going to survive, but as more of an AAC level G6.
 
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patdog

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My bad.....read it wrong. Thought it was the B12. I didn't even know there was a PAC12 conference any more.
PAC12 is up to 7 schools now. Only 1 more to remain an official conference. I expect they’ll add another 3-7 schools.
 
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Trojanbulldog19

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Good addition. Utah may not like it though. Gives them a natural in-state rival (usually it's BYU). Will give USU a boost in recruiting capability.
I don't really see how. If only two of the old pC 12 remain it's not really the pac12 the brand is not the same by adding more g5 schools. Big 12 ACC SEC and Big 10 are only conferences with legitimacy. If pac 12 wants to add they need to steal a few back from power 4 then add extemely strong G5 schools.
 

Dawgg

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I don't really see how. If only two of the old pC 12 remain it's not really the pac12 the brand is not the same by adding more g5 schools. Big 12 ACC SEC and Big 10 are only conferences with legitimacy. If pac 12 wants to add they need to steal a few back from power 4 then add extemely strong G5 schools.
He thought USU was going to the Big 12 when he posted that.
 

Dawgg

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Gonzaga is leaving the WCC for the Pac12. Of course they don’t play football so they’re still short a couple of schools.


Wow. A full share with no football? That sounds a little strange and I wonder if it’s going to deter potential expansion candidates.
 
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Maroon Eagle

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Wow. A full share with no football? That sounds a little strange and I wonder if it’s going to deter potential expansion candidates.
I expect it’ll be a full share in everything but football.

I’ve also seen tweets that have said that Gonzaga to P12 is not happening— at least not yet.

That said, the Pac-12 has the strongest basketball teams in the West (New Mexico notwithstanding) and I think the conference wants a solid league in that sport.
 
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Dawgg

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It’d be cool if Gonzaga just started a football team from scratch. It probably wouldn’t take long to have a full team with the new portal
The biggest hurdle they're going to have is building a stadium in Spokane. Spokane tore down their 30,000 seat stadium 2-3 years ago and built a 5,000 seat stadium. The minimum for an FBS stadium is 15,000. It would likely be north of $100 Million to build a new FBS caliber 15,000 seat stadium.

Also, they're only 75 miles from Pullman, so I don't know that Washington State would want to bring them in knowing they'll have a conference football rival that close.
 
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MStateDawg

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PAC12 is up to 7 schools now. Only 1 more to remain an official conference. I expect they’ll add another 3-7 schools.
3 of those seven don't play baseball (Boise State, Colorado State & Utah State) and I think minimum for a baseball league is 6. Rough time to be an Oregon State baseball fan. Even if they do come up with more teams to fill out for baseball, it's going to be a pretty terrible conference outside of the Beavers
 
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Dawgg

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I expect it’ll be a full share in everything but football.

I’ve also seen tweets that have said that Gonzaga to P12 is not happening— at least not yet.

That said, the Pac-12 has the strongest basketball teams in the West (New Mexico notwithstanding) and I think the conference wants a solid league in that sport.
That makes sense. It's just the way Brett's tweet read "Gonzaga, even w/out a football team, will receive a full conference revenue share in Pac-12, source said" made it sound like they're getting the same money as everybody else in the conference.

I didn't look up the original source of the Gonzaga story, but whatever position John Canzano is taking, it's safe to assume that the opposite will be happening.
 
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Maroon Eagle

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3 of those seven don't play baseball (Boise State, Colorado State & Utah State) and I think minimum for a baseball league is 6. Rough time to be an Oregon State baseball fan. Even if they do come up with more teams to fill out for baseball, it's going to be a pretty terrible conference outside of the Beavers
Yeah. That’s kind of why I’m hoping there’s some truth behind the Gonzaga rumors.

They would be a top 3 team in the Pac-12 if they’re in it.
 
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Dawgg

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3 of those seven don't play baseball (Boise State, Colorado State & Utah State) and I think minimum for a baseball league is 6. Rough time to be an Oregon State baseball fan. Even if they do come up with more teams to fill out for baseball, it's going to be a pretty terrible conference outside of the Beavers
That's a good point. I didn't think about baseball being a consideration of which Mountain West teams to go after, but with Oregon State being one of the 'pickers', that could be a factor.

Of the remaining Mountain West teams, these guys all have baseball teams:
Air Force
Nevada
New Mexico
UNLV
SJSU

I already believed UNLV, Air Force, and SJSU would be the next MWC teams to go Pac-12, but I thought Wyoming would be part of the group too. Having baseball might make Nevada and/or New Mexico a more attractive option though.
 

BIGDAWG44

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The biggest hurdle they're going to have is building a stadium in Spokane. Spokane tore down their 30,000 seat stadium 2-3 years ago and built a 5,000 seat stadium. The minimum for an FBS stadium is 15,000. It would likely be north of $100 Million to build a new FBS caliber 15,000 seat stadium.

Also, they're only 75 miles from Pullman, so I don't know that Washington State would want to bring them in knowing they'll have a conference football rival that close.
They could build a cool stadium on the Spokane River. They have a beautiful campus
 
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Dawgg

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Ross Dellenger brings up an interesting point about UNLV and Nevada:

Basically, the Nevada System of Higher Education and its board of regents govern both schools, including conference affiliation. It could be that they won’t allow UNLV to leave Nevada behind.

I also think some of the remaining 7 MWC school were posturing by signing the MWC agreement because they knew Utah State wasn’t going to. This way, they get to say “welp, we tried to keep the Mountain West together, but we have to do what’s in the best interest of our school, athletics department, and student-athletes. Sorry, Hawaii.”

I think I’m also leaning a lot more towards Air Force ending up in the AAC. The American has teams in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, so it’s not ridiculously out of geography. Plus, both of the other service academies are there now, so it does make sense.
 
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Dawgg

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Annnnnnnnd the Pac-12 is suing the Mountain West to make the poaching fees unenforceable.

And they were all such good friends a month ago.***


 

patdog

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Memphis, Tulane, South Florida & UTSA officially not interested. Translation, none of us can get the Big 12 or ACC to take our calls so we’ll just stay where we are.
1727233841401.png
 

Dawgg

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Big 12 should have taken WSU and OSU. Oregon State had a very good team recently and WSU is projected to win 10 games this year.
ESPN contractually would have had to pay up because of the pro-rata clause that stated they would scale the per team payout as long as the Big 12 added Power 5 teams, but Fox didn’t have that same pro-rata clause and apparently had no appetite for adding those two, which means adding OSU and WSU would have resulted in a smaller piece of the pie for the other teams.

Also, Oregon State and Washington State got an absolute windfall from the Pac-12 collapse. If they had jumped to the Big 12, they probably would have had to forfeit a lot of that cash.
 

L4Dawg

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That's a good point. I didn't think about baseball being a consideration of which Mountain West teams to go after, but with Oregon State being one of the 'pickers', that could be a factor.

Of the remaining Mountain West teams, these guys all have baseball teams:
Air Force
Nevada
New Mexico
UNLV
SJSU

I already believed UNLV, Air Force, and SJSU would be the next MWC teams to go Pac-12, but I thought Wyoming would be part of the group too. Having baseball might make Nevada and/or New Mexico a more attractive option though.
Football is driving this, baseball is an afterthought, if that.
 
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Dawgg

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Football is driving this, baseball is an afterthought, if that.
Well obviously football is driving this, but if it comes down to Wyoming or New Mexico, I’m not sure there’s any real daylight between them in terms of football program quality, popularity, or marketability. Their other sports and how they align with the Pac-12’s goals could come into the decision making.
 

Dawgg

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Looks like the Mountain West are going to give UNLV and Air Force $25 Million each to stay in the conference. That’s crazy. UNLV’s athletic department is millions of dollars in the red, so this makes sense they would take the deal.

Once the Pac-12 sued over the poaching penalties, I kind of thought that meant they didn’t have their nine defectors. Looks like that is the case.

Also, fun fact: since the implementation of the MWC championship game in 2012, the teams leaving have won 10 of 11 MWC championships.
 
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Dawgg

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So, the remaining 7 Mountain West teams signed a "memorandum of understanding" to stay in the Mountain West until 2032. That creates a real problem for the Pac-12 and the MW teams that have announced Pac-12 membership because now, unless they get some sort of legal victory over the Mountain West, there's no hope for them to dissolve the Mountain West and get out of paying the exit fees and poaching penalties. So, a huge chunk of their Pac-12 windfall is going to end up going to the Mountain West, plus they didn't even get their 8th team to solidify themselves as full conference.

So now unless something changes:
The Pac-12 and/or the defecting Mountain West teams will have to pay the Mountain West about $160 Million total.
The conference will consist of:
Oregon State
Washington State
Boise State
Utah State
San Diego State
Colorado State
Fresno State
Some other school that they'll have to poach from another conference or the FCS before the 2026 season. Gonzaga wouldn't count because they need a football playing member.

The Mountain West will pay UNLV and Air Force each $10-$14 Million in 2025 to stay, then about $1.5 Million a year for the next 6 years. Nevada, SJSU, New Mexico, and Wyoming will get about half that amount. Hawaii with get about a fifth of that amount.
The conference will consist of:
Wyoming
UNLV
Nevada
New Mexico
San Jose State
Air Force
Hawaii (football only)
Two more full time schools that they'll have to poach from another conference or the FCS before the 2028 season. The biggest targets are allegedly Texas State and Northern Illinois.

One other interesting note for UNLV is that they negotiated the ability to go to a Power 4 without penalty.

As of right now, it kind of looks like the Pac-12 took a big gamble and lost big. Also, UNLV is apparently deeply in the red so an upfront cash infusion was probably really attractive.

1727447409471.png

The MW later sent a corrected retention bonus percentage:
Air Force -- 24.5%
UNLV -- 24.5%
Nevada -- 11.5%
New Mexico -- 11.5%
San Jose State -- 11.5%
Wyoming -- 11.5%
Hawaii -- 5%
 
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