We just passed UK no longer last in the league in RPI

[PirateDawg]

Let's hope that continues and we are in a regional!

I'm just wondering about the trade off of SEC record and SEC record. Florida is 13th in RPI but they have a 6-12 SEC record. What happens if they are like 20th RPI and finish 12-18 in the SEC????

 

[Go Budaw]

Let's hope that continues and we are in a regional!

I'm just wondering about the trade off of SEC record and SEC record. Florida is 13th in RPI but they have a 6-12 SEC record. What happens if they are like 20th RPI and finish 12-18 in the SEC????

They got swept by Tennessee, just like 4 other teams did. They are much better than their conference record currently shows. But to answer your question, they would probably still make the regionals as a 3-seed, provided that their overall record is over .500. Based on their current record, I think that would be a guarantee at 12-18.

(Edit) In 2011, UGA tested the other end of this spectrum. They were Top 10 in RPI basically all season, but struggled mightily in their nonconference schedule before picking up the pace in SEC play. They finished with 15 or 16 SEC wins, and 31-30 overall to just barely squeeze into the Corvallis regional, where they went 2-2. NCAA has a prerequisite for at-large bids that requires teams to finish at or above .500. So if they had won just one fewer games in Hoover than they did, they would have been out.

 

[PooPopsBaldHead]

View attachment 24343

 

[8dog]

They would not make it. Conference record is really the secondary metric and is used for the very situation Florida may be in

 

[Go Budaw]

They would not make it. Conference record is really the secondary metric and is used for the very situation Florida may be in

I think if the RPI held, they would be in. Whether or not it would hold in the Top 20 with that record is the ultimate question.

Honestly though, any 12-18 SEC team is still a Top 35-40 team in the country, at worst. So its hard to say they shouldn’t get a bid if the other metrics hold up.

 

[MSUDC11]

If Florida goes 12-18 it will largely depend on what they do in Hoover. Bama got in last year with a 12-17 record but also won two games in Hoover, including one against Tennessee.

If you're 12-18 and then one and done in Hoover, you have no chance. But Hoover wins technically count the same as regular season SEC wins in the eyes of the committee. So Bama technically was considered to have 14 SEC wins last year instead of just the 12 they won in the regular season. The Gov. Cup tonight is similar, it has no bearing on the SEC standings or Hoover seeding but is considered a conference game for NCAA Tourney purposes.

Hoover matters if you're on the bubble. Good chance it will matter for us, too. It's a LONG wait until the selection show if you go one and done at The Met.

 

[Go Budaw]

If Florida goes 12-18 it will largely depend on what they do in Hoover. Bama got in last year with a 12-17 record but also won two games in Hoover, including one against Tennessee.

If you're 12-18 and then one and done in Hoover, you have no chance. But Hoover wins technically count the same as regular season SEC wins in the eyes of the committee. So Bama technically was considered to have 14 SEC wins last year instead of just the 12 they won in the regular season. The Gov. Cup tonight is similar, it has no bearing on the SEC standings or Hoover seeding but is considered a conference game for NCAA Tourney purposes.

Hoover matters if you're on the bubble. Good chance it will matter for us, too. It's a LONG wait until the selection show if you go one and done at The Met.

I don’t necessarily agree with that. If true, we had 21 SEC wins in 2012. That’s a lock for a national seed if you count them the same, but we didn’t even host that year.

I do agree that you don’t want to go 0-for in Hoover with that record, though. No question that it would be bad for business.

 

[8dog]

The committee has said for a while they count like Conference wins. Its dumb but thats their position.

 

[8dog]

Back to 80. The road to the Top 50 seems almost impossible. Because the Florida series isn’t a great opportunity to move up.

 

[MSUDC11]

Back to 80. The road to the Top 50 seems almost impossible. Because the Florida series isn’t a great opportunity to move up.

Going into the night the Boyd’s World needs report had us needing to win 12 of our last 15 to finish in the Top 45. So with tonight’s loss I assume we would need to finish 12-2. Seems basically impossible we do that.

I think we still probably get the benefit of the doubt if we get to 15 SEC wins though (including Hoover). In other words, I think we need to either finish 15-15 or go 14-16 with at least one win in Hoover.

 

[8dog]

And we still have North Alabama left. Thats an RPI a negative game. Whoever put together this schedule does not need to do it again. The schedule alone is gonna keep us out.

 

[MSUDC11]

And we still have North Alabama left. Thats an RPI a negative game. Whoever put together this schedule does not need to do it again. The schedule alone is gonna keep us out.

I would try to buy that game out ASAP if I were Lemonis.

 

[msstate7]

We're back in last, 80th. Need a sweep this weekend

 

[MSUDC11]

We're back in last, 80th. Need a sweep this weekend

You hate to say we need a road sweep but you may be right. Mizzou’s RPI has started to drop too, they’re only at 45 now. Probably won’t be in the Top 50 after this weekend, unless they win the series against us which would obviously be bad.

 

[8dog]

Its entirely possible we could win 6 SEC series and get left out.

 

[msstate7]

Its entirely possible we could win 6 SEC series and get left out.

On ED, they're convinced 14 sec wins gets us in. I'm not sold on that at all. Georgia last year was 31-25 (13-17) RPI 44, and they were left out. Bama last year was 32-26 (12-17) rpi 36, and they got in. We're effin 80th

 

[8dog]

14 isnt getting us in without 2-3 tourney wins and cancelling N AL. We could be a test case for a team with a lot of conference wins in a great conference with a bad rpi

 

[Go Budaw]

I would try to buy that game out ASAP if I were Lemonis.

And replace it with a trip to Hattiesburg, if that’s on the table (it probably isn’t).

 

[MSUDC11]

To me the most realistic scenario is we go to Hoover needing at least a win or two.

 

[Go Budaw]

The committee has said for a while they count like Conference wins. Its dumb but thats their position.

What they say and what they put into practice are often different things. They also say RPI is just one tool they use that doesn’t carry any more weight than the others, even though it’s been proven time and again that it’s by far the most important thing they look at. In fact if that were true, we’d have nothing to worry about with 13-14 wins.

 

[8dog]

I don’t think anyone disputes that RPI is by far and away the primary factor with conference em record second. 13 wont get our RPI inside 60

I have had trouble finding the lowest RPIs to get at larges. It would be nice to see

 

[MSUDC11]

D1 and Baseball America both have us in the First Four Out in todays projections. That’s better than I would have expected with our RPI. Just need to keep accumulating wins.

 

[patdog]

We're going to be more attractive to the committee than our RPI ranking. Not buying that we're first four out as of now though. Not even next 4 out. But if we get to 14 SEC wins + a win in Hoover, I think we're in. I put our odds at 30%.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Don't count on getting what we need to make the tournament. We don't have the middle relief or closing pitching that we can count on when the game is on the line and it's not going miraculously appear somehow in the next couple of weeks. I won't even mention that we have to face Tenn (the hottest team in the country) for our last home weekend. It's just gonna be one of those years so we might as well suck it up and face the music. Maybe we'll see some development for next season down the stretch from some of these pitchers but I m not counting on it.

 

[PirateDawg]

Our early season schedule is killing us. We win games and the teams we played earlier are losing so we drop with them. Teams like Dallas Baptist played the tough teams and are bolstered by their wins.

 

[PirateDawg]

This weekend will decide what happens with this team. If we win the series we're still in the running. If we lose the series we are toast. Even losing one game to a 5-13 team makes us suspect for the regionals. Our pitching has looked better when you consider we only lost the first game to OM because of the error. We have reached do or die time and our fate is in their hands.

 

[Go Budaw]

Not just this weekend. Need 6-3 over the next 9 at worst. That still may not be enough. But we’re in trouble if we head into the UT series with any fewer than 14 wins.

 

[patdog]

I think we win 1 against Tennessee. No team can stay this hot for an entire season. And when teams on a hot streak cool down, they tend to go into a bit of a slump. We'll catch them in the slump. At least I hope so.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

I think we win 1 against Tennessee. No team can stay this hot for an entire season. And when teams on a hot streak cool down, they tend to go into a bit of a slump. We'll catch them in the slump. At least I hope so.

I hope so. I think Tennessee is really gonna come in looking to sweep us since we are the reigning champions.

I don't feel I can count on it but if we could pull off winning that series it could really put a positive spin on this entire season.

 

[Go Budaw]

I think we win 1 against Tennessee. No team can stay this hot for an entire season. And when teams on a hot streak cool down, they tend to go into a bit of a slump. We'll catch them in the slump. At least I hope so.

We very well could win 1….but if we enter with 13 or fewer wins, that 1 won’t be good enough. We’ve got to get to 15 wins, and even then will probably need more in Hoover.

 

[maroonmania]

We very well could win 1….but if we enter with 13 or fewer wins, that 1 won’t be good enough. We’ve got to get to 15 wins, and even then will probably need more in Hoover.

14 wins would likely get us in given the RPIs of the teams we have on the remaining schedule. Just playing TN 3 times will help the RPI especially if we do win one. Regardless I don't see us doing much, but it would be nice to at least get in the field of 64.

 

[patdog]

Good lord. I just looked at Warren Nolan's RPI sheet for us. We're 7-11 in Q1 games, 4-4 in Q2 games and 1-2 in Q3 games. But hey, we're 12-1 in Q4 games. Looking at that, I tend to agree with you that it would take at least 15 SEC wins to get in the tournament. And it probably should. For what it's worth, he predicts we'll finish 12-18 with an RPI of 64, which sounds about right to me.

 

[dawgphd]

Not just this weekend. Need 6-3 over the next 9 at worst. That still may not be enough. But we’re in trouble if we head into the UT series with any fewer than 14 wins.

Correct.

6-3 in the next 9 puts us at 14-13 hosting UT.

Statistically you have to plan for UT sweep. Winning 1 would be bonus.


No 15 -15 has ever been left out.
Only one 14-16 SEC team.

 

[8dog]

Not true. 15-15 has been left out. Bama was one of them in 2016. Because their RPI was 61

Mizzou in 2015