Here is the latest:
it is still up in the air but when NWS office in Memphis is suggesting the phrase tornado outbreak late Tuesday into that night. With strong tornadoes even possible. They have a tendency to be conservative on severe weather forecasting,
NWS Memphis Discussion Link
All of these parameters, at these levels signal severe weather with all modes on
the table. If these parameters hold at current levels or increase, a
tornado outbreak is possible with a few strong tornadoes. A limiting
factor here is the instablity. Some models have shown as little as
700 J/kg of CAPE. While there is still uncertainty as to how much
instability we can get from this system, severe weather is still
likely.
Jackson NWS is warning nighttime event
Link - NWS Jackson Forecast Discussion
This could be a long duration event as warm
advection showers into Tues aftn could develop early along N Gulf
Coast late Tues aftn & spread to the E-NE. Some potential better sfc
frontal forcing are expected into the evening & overnight hours,
with global models, including the NAM, more aggressive on QPF
stripes, indicative of supercell potential into the evening hours.
Timing will mainly be late Tues aftn through early Wednesday but
some veering will occur as the front moves in. Kept the ongoing
"Enhanced" ongoing across west of I-55 corridor & no changes are
needed at this time, but added mention for some strong tornadoes
possible in this area.
^^&STP Index^^
it is still up in the air but when NWS office in Memphis is suggesting the phrase tornado outbreak late Tuesday into that night. With strong tornadoes even possible. They have a tendency to be conservative on severe weather forecasting,
NWS Memphis Discussion Link
All of these parameters, at these levels signal severe weather with all modes on
the table. If these parameters hold at current levels or increase, a
tornado outbreak is possible with a few strong tornadoes. A limiting
factor here is the instablity. Some models have shown as little as
700 J/kg of CAPE. While there is still uncertainty as to how much
instability we can get from this system, severe weather is still
likely.
Jackson NWS is warning nighttime event
Link - NWS Jackson Forecast Discussion
This could be a long duration event as warm
advection showers into Tues aftn could develop early along N Gulf
Coast late Tues aftn & spread to the E-NE. Some potential better sfc
frontal forcing are expected into the evening & overnight hours,
with global models, including the NAM, more aggressive on QPF
stripes, indicative of supercell potential into the evening hours.
Timing will mainly be late Tues aftn through early Wednesday but
some veering will occur as the front moves in. Kept the ongoing
"Enhanced" ongoing across west of I-55 corridor & no changes are
needed at this time, but added mention for some strong tornadoes
possible in this area.
^^&STP Index^^
