Weather
- Thread starter Tractorman
- Start date
It’s impossible to predict weather that far out. Someone found a cold scenario in all the model runs and posted a picture.
With that being said it could get pretty cold in the next couple of weeks. Polar vortex is shifting around. Looks like the west half of the US is going to get blasted next week.
It looks like the areas near the coast in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama might see some severe weather before the cold air gets here.
They can’t get 2 days from now right. Don’t trust 2 weeks from now.
That is from the CFS model. Its accuracy is about the same as getting drunk and throwing darts at a list of weather events. However, the long range models have been trying to bring down arctic air for the last month. It just never happens. I suspect that at some point in late January or early February it'll finally happen, but I have serious doubts it will be that cold. It always ends up modifying more than first thought.
We're due for damn sure.
It's hard to explain to people who don't derive pleasure from the same absurd hobby that I do, but South Mississippi has been a ghost town for any form of inclement weather in the past two years. Really since Easter 2020, which I'm still trying to wrap my head around. Atmospherically speaking, this has been the most boring two years in history. Even if they "chased themselves" they wouldn't have had a chance to south of 84 in 2022/2023. Brandon Clement's red dot has been totally absent from roaming South Central MS and it needs to end.
Hugh knows exactly what I mean.
I'll take my brutal TX summer over that any day! Obviously you went the other direction. Do you ever get used to that weather??
That's actually next valley over. We will *only* have a low of negative 9°. But more important than the low is the daily high. We had a low around -20° one day last year and by 2 pm it was 25° and sunny. At our elevation the sun will nuke you, so 25° and sunny feels like 48° and cloudy.
We are up over a mile high in a big valley near the western slope of the Rockies. The warm Pacific winds kinda fight the cold Arctic air here. 200 miles east of here across the Continental Divide in Montana and Wyoming, there is no fight, the Arctic blast always wins.
This winter has been mild so far. I just wear a pair of jeans tennis shoes and a sweatshirt most of the time. Jacket is only for when I am skiing or out in the snow for long periods of time. It's in the 30's nearly every afternoon. You definitely get accustomed to it winter living in the mountains. For 15 years I sweated my balls of in Texas for 4 months and never got accustomed to it.
So to answer your question... Nobody gets used to below zero temps. 15° and above is fine. @grinningmule and I went snowmobiling last year in the Sawtooths and when we got on the sleds it was -10 or so. Don't think it got much above zero that day. Pretty 17ing cold cruising down trails at 40 mph, but we had good gear.... And while we figuratively froze our nuts off, it was tolerable. That said, snowmobiling in the Sawtooths was badåss.
If I recall this is a pic of @grinningmule 's sled when he walked away to take a piss and fell in a tree well pecker in hand.
Here's the view from the condo we booked.
We have done more amazing things in the last 3-4 years than I did in over 40 before moving here. I'd probably tolerate the Texas heat a lot more if it meant I got to live in the heart of the Northern Rockies.
My wife and I have an arrangement. When the kids are gone, I’ll get a condo in the N Rockies/montana, and she’ll get a beach house. I’ll see her in the summer….
Hitting me next weekend, but until now it’s been a dry upper 20s to mid 40s. Haven’t layered other than a hoodie over a tshirt. Wear shorts to run errands/go to gym. There’s not even snow on the ground, but there is some leftover in piles from the plows. Last couple winters were much snowier, but it’s generally lows in the 20s highs in the 30s here in the winter without many dips below that.
Raise your hand if you were on the driving range in shorts and flip flops last weekend.Raise your hand if you clear snow off the car in shorts and flip flops.
It was more like "pecker in two fingers" that day. But, I'll take Idaho weather over MS weather any day. I rarely wear more than a light jacket in winter and don't sweat through my drawers walking to my car in the summer. Need to hit another trip this year if it actually snows.
It's beautiful for sure! I just wish I could deal with the cold. The older I get the weaker I am against the cold.
It really is amazing the difference between 32 in the southeast and 32 in the mountains. I always assumed it was the lack of humidity more so than the sun and altitude. But whatever it is, it’s a massive difference.
Make no mistake. 25 degrees with a 30-40 mph gale blowing at 10,000 feet of elevation with 23 percent humidity is COLD. 17n cold.
Went skiing in Colorado back when I was in high school and we walked around town in just a light fleece jacket in single digits. It didn’t feel cold.
I totally get the shorts and flip flops too. When we had all the snow in 21 and it stayed pretty cold for 2 weeks the first day that it was 35ish outside felt like 65 degrees.
Canadian article on humidity effects on cold
Humidity has nothing to do with it. At low temps, when there is very little moisture in the air, the humidity is still high because the cold air can't hold moisture like warm air. Here's a current pic of my weather station.
97% humidity is pretty high. But if you walk outside it feels dry. On ultra cold sunny days it will feel dry as a bone, but the humidity will be at 100% and when you look outside there are billions of little sparkles fluttering in the air. It accumulates on everything like crystals. It's a phenomenon called "diamond dust." Here's some on the a fiberglass snow marker in my driveway last year on a sub zero morning.
There's rarely such thing as low humidity at really cold temps. I imagine you could however see a difference in the upper 30's or 40's. The biggest thing is acclimation. We have 85-90° afternoons in August with 45-50° mornings. On those crisp mornings we light out on long hikes and are jumping in 55-65° lakes and rivers by afternoon. So by winter, 25-35 feels fine.
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Yeah it’s completely acclimation. That 65° day in March feels way warmer than that 65° day in October.
Concur, 10 out of 10. I spent 3 years in northern Maine, I didn't get use to it. The 100 degree temps we had in Jxn this summer didn't bother me at all. I've spent time in the deserts of the Middle East, I'll take the heat over the cold any day. The older I get, the more than rings true.
When you wear your jeans, tennis shoes, and sweatshirt, do you wear a braided fake leather belt also.
(Asking for a friend)
Pretty accurate, except its mid Jan not late. Forecast low for -1 and snow Monday night for North MS. Heads up to prepare ahead of time.
Latest official NWS forecast for us is a low of 8 on Tuesday night, so no sub-zero temps predicted. But, the local NWS Forecast Office tends to be pretty conservative, especially this far out. It's not been below 0 here this century, but in the 70s and 80s wasn't all that unusual.
Outlying areas away from the airport, where official readings are taken, tend to be several degrees lower, so we shall see.
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