Or we are NIT bound. Some of you don't want to believe, but it is what it is.
We'd better beat the Cocks
- Thread starter msudawg1200
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No I’m with you now. I had no indication that we would go get our *** kicked by an NIT team but this is a game changer in a bad way. I’m mad as hell. Zero excuse for a showing like this.
Congratulations, you’ve now given yourself a must win against a team that’s 24-6.
Congratulations, you’ve now given yourself a must win against a team that’s 24-6.
Never forget that its only a must-win because we lost a home game to mother17ing Southern. Again, worst and most inexcusable loss in MSU sports history. Singlehandedly made “right side of the bubble” the absolute ceiling for this season.
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I think most everyone will still have us in the tourney after tonight and probably still around the low 8 to 10 seed range. Don’t think we are in Dayton territory yet. But yes, a home loss on Saturday would get us close to that if not all the way there. SC is tricky because they’re a good team with a meh NET. Losing to them at home would hurt more than any of our recent losses, including tonight.
What tonight did probably do is kill any chances we had for a 7 seed. Unless we go win the SEC tourney or something.
What tonight did probably do is kill any chances we had for a 7 seed. Unless we go win the SEC tourney or something.
*ahem*….”Remember the Maine”**********
Our net is 39 which is 10 seed without Auto Qualifiers. We are VERY VERY much on the bubble right now. We are probably more like an 11 or play in right now
Making matters worse is a lot of the bubble teams jumped us last night.
Even TxAM is now a net of 49. They have 2nd most quad 1 wins in the SEC. They have double the quad 1 wins we have (3 to 6) and they are 10-9 in Quad 1 & 2, we are 7-10. AND they now have the H2H over us.
Saturday is a must win, considering its only a quad 2 game. Or we need 2 in the SECT
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We’ll see what some of the bracket types think in a little bit when some of their seed lists are released. I don’t think many will drop us to “Last Four In” territory just yet. But obviously lose on Saturday and the risk of that is much higher. I think we have fallen from borderline 7/8 to borderline 9/10, maybe even straight up 10 seed, in the span of 8 days. That sucks. Need to right the ship and the time to do it is immediately.
Seton Hall and FAU both winning isnt good for us.
Going 0-3 while other teams beat anyone in that stretch can make a shift of 7-8 spots quiet likely. I never saw us in 7 territory. Our net has moved 10 points. If we were a solid 8 and drop the same as our net did. We are solid 10 or worse
Our blind resume just isnt very good. We are very reliant on the NET and the strength of our conference. But if we finished 9th in the conference and below 500, its going to be hard to justify putting us in as one of the last ones.
BTW: Just saw Palm, he's got us 10th, but listed as on the bubble.
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Unfortunately we have fans that actually want us to fail, they don't want us to make the tourney. Any set back and they are off the wagon, spouting negativity.
As long as we win our first SEC tourney game, we're solidly in.
Concur, but even if we lose, we're probably still in if we win our first SEC tourney game.
Losing a quad 2 game at home
Then winning a quad 2 game
Then getting losing a quad 1 game
In the above scenario.. L to SC, W to LSU, L to Tenn-- the last 2 are obviously guesses at this point but they will be similar foes.
Puts us essentially 9-11 vs the SEC. 3-7 vs the QUAD 1. 8-12 vs Quad 1 and 2.
And our NET will without question drop even more going 1-2.. likely 3-4-5 points.. meaning our net will be in the mid 40s.
A mid 40s net, with our resume isnt going to get in.. unless we get a lot of luck with no upsets with the auto qualifiers.
Then winning a quad 2 game
Then getting losing a quad 1 game
In the above scenario.. L to SC, W to LSU, L to Tenn-- the last 2 are obviously guesses at this point but they will be similar foes.
Puts us essentially 9-11 vs the SEC. 3-7 vs the QUAD 1. 8-12 vs Quad 1 and 2.
And our NET will without question drop even more going 1-2.. likely 3-4-5 points.. meaning our net will be in the mid 40s.
A mid 40s net, with our resume isnt going to get in.. unless we get a lot of luck with no upsets with the auto qualifiers.
If the SECT was at the hump, we could win 2, but this team isn't focused enough for going 1 full game on the road.
I’ve mostly enjoyed watching this team play over the last couple seasons, but one thing I’ve come to grips with is that we may have the worst depth in the entire conference.
In games against an SEC caliber team, we cannot afford Tolu or Hubbard to have an off night because there just aren’t other options to consistently pick up the slack. Then, if both of them have off nights, we can basically lose to anyone.
This team can beat very good teams, but there is minuscule margin for error when it comes to what is needed from those two
In games against an SEC caliber team, we cannot afford Tolu or Hubbard to have an off night because there just aren’t other options to consistently pick up the slack. Then, if both of them have off nights, we can basically lose to anyone.
This team can beat very good teams, but there is minuscule margin for error when it comes to what is needed from those two
The committee has shown repeatedly they don’t care about the conference tournaments. If we lose to SC I would think we have to win it.
Weirdly enough we are undefeated in neutral sites this year. Played extremely well in those neutral nonconference games. Beat a couple of tourney teams even. But outside of Mizzou and LSU we just totally failed on the road this year. I don’t mind losing at Auburn or at Kentucky or something like that. But we’ve played five non-tourney teams on the road and went 2-3 against them. That’s less than this team was capable of.
It matters to the bubble teams. The immediate bubble that is. But agree you wont see a team jump 10 spots due to a deep run in a conf tourney.
Big thing that matters in those is how many auto-bids are stolen. We benefitted a graet deal from that last year, as there was almost no bid stealers.
I do think you’re sweating if your only win the rest of the way is LSU in Nashville. But also at that point a lot would depend on what others do. Might be in but might not.
Just need to beat SC and be done with it. This has become a lot more stressful than it ever should’ve been.
Well a 10 seed is the same as a 7. If at any point this team was good enough to be a 7 seed, then they should be able to beat a 7 seed from the 10 line. It is all about matchups with this team. And teams that have strong post play destroy our former All-SEC post player this year. While at the same time, our Achilles heel is slow starts, poor free throw shooting and no perimeter defense. But other than all that, we are dangerous!
First reputable projection I’ve seen this morning (Dave Ommen) still has us as a low 8 seed. That’s probably higher than some others. But a decent indication that’s it’s not as perilous just yet as some fear. That said, still don’t need to lose on Saturday.
anyone that has us an 8, with a net of 39, isnt very reputable. Thats basically seeding us 7 positions higher than our current net. Just isnt going to happen. The resume doesnt warrant that, and its a drastic over seed.
I mean there’s more to it than NET. There are teams with worse NET’s than us already as tourney locks.
Dave usually knows his stuff, usually ranks pretty highly on the bracket matrix ratings in terms of accuracy.
and the more to it than net... we dont have. 3 quad 1 wins. 7-10 quad 1 and 2. Its just not a good take, no one will have us that high. Where he has us is basically the high water mark for us if we have a successful end of the year.
Palm who you dont like has us a 10 and a bubble team. Even though i dont always agree with Palm, thats a much more realistic take.
A 10 seed isn’t an unreasonable opinion for us. But neither is a low 8. There is a lot of fluidity in that 30-40 range. I think an 11 would be too low and if we’re an 8 it’s just barely. I previously said I probably would have us as a 9, maybe 10.
The main thing helping us right now is the Tennessee and Auburn wins. Yes we only have 3 Q1 wins but two of them are against Top 10 teams and one of those teams has a legit chance to be a 1 seed. That stands out when you’re sorting through fringe tourney teams.
Auburn is likely going to be a 4 seed. Agreed both help. UT helps immensely. But to me, that gets sorted out by the bad loss. Its very unlikely (I havent sorted thru it) any of those bubble teams have the loss we have either.
The resume just doesnt add up to what the guy you reference is putting out there. We have a lot more marks (3-7 quad record, road record, last 5 record if we lose out, conference record, etc) than we do pluses (UT win, Aub win, Net which is middling at the moment)... I'll wait on lunardi to see what he says, think hes the most accurate, everyone else is kinda guessing.
Never forget the Maine, but….
A men’s basketball team in the 4th place of the SWAC…..by far the worst Division I athletic conference in every single sport….going on the road and beating an NCAA at-large tourney contender is FAR more inexcusable and ridiculous than a crappy FBS program with an awful coach in the midst of heavy NCAA sanctions and its 4th straight season of winning 3 or fewer games losing to an average FCS program.
Neither are excusable, but one is just absurd based on the talent gap, coaching gap, and resource gap that are in play that were not in play for MSU vs. Maine.
We're gonna get screwed when it comes to the tourney draw.
If we lose to SC, they won't even bother with trying to screw us.
Either way, WE'RE SCREWED!
If we lose to SC, they won't even bother with trying to screw us.
Either way, WE'RE SCREWED!
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