Well, it had to be done. Buy/Sell
- Thread starter gtowndawg
- Start date
simply b/c its a crapshoot and the odds are against you. You can build a great team, the team you've always wanted and never sniff Omaha. See MSU 89 and Ole Miss 05.
The current format makes it even harder. You need to be pretty hot for a month straight.
The current format makes it even harder. You need to be pretty hot for a month straight.
Coaching wins out when the field is fairly even. Polk had several CWS attempts with the best team and couldn't get it done because he refuses to play certain parts of the game (bunting, changing pitchers before the damage is done, swinging at the 3-1 underhanded pitch, etc.).
Cohen will do it. </p>
Cohen will do it. </p>
Ill wager you don't even make the CWS in the next 10 years. Cohen is a good coach, but what has he done?
the guy has hosted a regional at possibly the worst program of any of the 3 big sports in the SEC. He's taken them to 2 regionals in 5 years when they had previously been to 4 in school history.
We haven't even been trying the last 7 years and we got to Omaha.
Im baffled by people who aren't impressed with Cohen. It shows a lack of knowledge about college baseball.
We haven't even been trying the last 7 years and we got to Omaha.
Im baffled by people who aren't impressed with Cohen. It shows a lack of knowledge about college baseball.
AnalRetentiveReb said:
</p>1.elevated piss ant NW St to a level high enough to beat LSU.
2. recruited enough talent to Fla to play for a NC. Also coached them to a top 5 hitting team
3. won Kentucky's ONLY SEC Championship
4. Coached Kentucky to 2 of their 4 40 win seasons
5. recruited a top recruiting class there for 09. To freaking Kentucky
Every place he goes gets alot better- so, alot better for Miss St would be a NC. Its no coincidence McMahon got fired after he left
<table summary="user post and replies"> <tbody class="expandable thread-post even post reply Optimus-Prime-4 post-read" id="post-id-38430"> <tr> <td class="th post-subject"><span class="post-title">odds are very good for a CWS, but hell, just look at ASU and UNC</span></td> <td class="th post-number">#13</td> <td class="th post-url"><a name="reply-38430"></a></td> <td class="th toggle lastcol"><span class="collapse-button">[-]</span></td> </tr> <tr class="collapsible-content"> <td class="firstcol poster-detail"> <div class="avatar-block"> <p class="user-avatar"> </p> <p class="post-count"> </p> </div> </td> <td class="lastcol post-content" colspan="4"> <div class="post-body"> <div class="scrolling"> <div> aren't they both still trying to win a title after a ton of trips? </div> </div> </div> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
as the question was first posed. A whole lot of really good programs have failed to win a nat'l title in the last ten years to include ASU and FSU to name just two. This premise is absurd. </p>
Oregon friggin State won back to back titles for goodness sake. It is conceivable for State to win a title and is therefore a totally legitimate topic to discuss. Now, I personally am not going to bet on it happening. But, by the same token, I'm not going to blast people for believing we could win a title, or even just discussing the possibility. A team gets hot at the right time and they can blow through to the title. We've seen it happen before. State was a freak injury away from the championship game in 1985.
And you didn't win and the college baseball landscape has changed a lot since then. There are just too many good college baseball programs around today to reasonably think it is a 51% probability (which is what a buy sell is after all) that state wins a title in 10 years but you are free to dream.
a buy sell after the 1988 CWS that said "Stanford or Florida State will win a national title by the end of 2007", almost everyone would have bought. And they would have been wrong. Great programs...its just a crapshoot.
Think about it...its hard enough to win a regional and a super. Then you have to go to Omaha and do it all over again against teams that are likely as hot or hotter than your team.
Think about it...its hard enough to win a regional and a super. Then you have to go to Omaha and do it all over again against teams that are likely as hot or hotter than your team.
That MSU team was loaded and looked to be cruising to the championship game at Omaha, and then a freak injury happened to the pitcher and they suddenly lose that game and the next game to be eliminated. My brining up of this wasn't to show that MSU could make it close, but to show that anything can happen in baseball. Again I point to Oregon State winning back to back titles. Who would have thought OSU would win last year after they barely slid into a regional? Who would have thought 3 years ago that OSU would win back to back titles? If a team gets hot, if things line up right (Ole Miss in 2005 being a good example of a tough draw), and if you have good luck you can win it all. Crazy things happen in baseball all the time. To say that discussing the possibility of MSU winning a national title is absurd is, well, absurd. Again, I don't really think it will happen but it is a legimate discussion.
Not once have I ever considered a buy sell topic to be 51% or whatever. I've always considered it as "here's a proposal or statement, do you agree or disagree?" For instance, I could make a Buy/sell topic like this: "Buy/Sell Ron Polk will publicly apologize to Greg Byrne" and then I would sell that topic because I don't think it will happen. Your stance is that buy/sell topics should be mostly buys, but I've seen a lot with majority sells.
Again, it is a legitimate discussion to have. I don't think it will happen but we can still talk about it.
Again, it is a legitimate discussion to have. I don't think it will happen but we can still talk about it.
I think what he's saying is that if you're buying, you're saying you think there is a better than 50% chance that something will happen. If you're selling, you're saying there is a better than 50% chance something will not happen.
For instance, if you were to say Buy/Sell MSU wins 7 games this year, you would buy if you thought there was a better than 50% chance that it happens, and you'd sell if you thought it was a less than 50% chance of happening.
In this case, to buy that MSU will win a title in the next 10 years, you're basically saying you think there is a better than 50% chance that it happens. I disagree with that, mainly because I think it'd be hard to agree that any program has a better than 50% chance at winning a title in the next 10 years.
If the buy/sell had been about making a CWS, then yea, I'd buy. However, once you get to a CWS, there are so many good teams that even if you're the best in the country, there is a good chance something will happen and you won't win it all.
For instance, if you were to say Buy/Sell MSU wins 7 games this year, you would buy if you thought there was a better than 50% chance that it happens, and you'd sell if you thought it was a less than 50% chance of happening.
In this case, to buy that MSU will win a title in the next 10 years, you're basically saying you think there is a better than 50% chance that it happens. I disagree with that, mainly because I think it'd be hard to agree that any program has a better than 50% chance at winning a title in the next 10 years.
If the buy/sell had been about making a CWS, then yea, I'd buy. However, once you get to a CWS, there are so many good teams that even if you're the best in the country, there is a good chance something will happen and you won't win it all.
I guess there's a 50% chance of anything happening then? Because either it will happen or it won't.
-there is a 50% chance aliens will invade us tomorrow
-there is a 50% chance we will all lose our jobs in the next month
-there is a 50% chance that i will have a penis shaped like a coke can
-there is a 50% chance aliens will invade us tomorrow
-there is a 50% chance we will all lose our jobs in the next month
-there is a 50% chance that i will have a penis shaped like a coke can
OMAHA = Ole Miss At Home Again
17 off
edit: I'll bet you $1000 that MSU is in the CWS in the next 10 years. Put up or shut up.
17 off
edit: I'll bet you $1000 that MSU is in the CWS in the next 10 years. Put up or shut up.
if anyone places bets, they will be archived so we can actually remember the terms. Just let me know once it's finalized.
It's really pretty simple.
Buy/Sell is asking for your opinion on whether or not you think the chances are greater that something will happen or it won't happen. If you think there is a 75% chance MSU will win a title in the next 10 years, then you buy. If you think the chances are closer to 40%, you'd sell.
I'm going to guess with all 3 of the things you listed that the chances of any of those things happening are very slim. Therefore, you would sell. I thought the concept was pretty well understood.
Yes, there is always a chance that anything might happen or it might not, but that doesn't mean the chances are 50/50 all the time. The chances of the sun being around tomorrow are better than 50%. The chances of Ole Miss winning the football national title this coming fall are less than 50%. In both cases, it could either happen, or it couldn't, but that doesn't make the odds 50/50. It doesn't take a math major to figure this out. Or at least I didn't think it did.
There are currently 8 teams still playing baseball. Now if the odds were all the same, each team has a 12.5 % chance of winning it all. That's obviously not the case. Miami and UNC have better odds, at least in theory, than say Fresno State.
But not a damn one of the teams has a better than 50 % chance of winning it all. So using this logic of "51 %", every response to a thread titled "Buy/Sell - LSU wins the national title" would require a sell since they don't have a 51 % chance of winning it all. If you think they do, then you haven't watched much college baseball and, quite frankly, your opinion on the matter should be considered useless.
I think that LSU has no better than a 20 % chance of winning the title. But I buy like hell that they win it.
But not a damn one of the teams has a better than 50 % chance of winning it all. So using this logic of "51 %", every response to a thread titled "Buy/Sell - LSU wins the national title" would require a sell since they don't have a 51 % chance of winning it all. If you think they do, then you haven't watched much college baseball and, quite frankly, your opinion on the matter should be considered useless.
I think that LSU has no better than a 20 % chance of winning the title. But I buy like hell that they win it.
You said that you were willing to wager on it, so back it up. Cohen is about to dominate Bianco and the rebels. Get ready, bc it is going to happen. I'll also make a wager that Cohen wins an outright SEC title before Bianco does. </p>
I'm selling. We are going to have to rebuild first- that's two years right there. By Cohen's third or fourth year, he will finally have everything "in place" so to speak as far as his recruits. I do think that he will at least try, which is something that I feel pretty confident saying that we haven't been doing lately.
If it was 15 years, I might buy.
The key is going to be getting three top 5 round draft pick pitchers and then have our fourth guy be someone like a Pigott. Then we need two or three Will Clark types, and then an Aaron Weatherford type closer. Yes, that is going to be hard to do. So, it will come down to recruiting elite types of players, which we haven't been doing unless they happen to swing by the camp.
If it was 15 years, I might buy.
The key is going to be getting three top 5 round draft pick pitchers and then have our fourth guy be someone like a Pigott. Then we need two or three Will Clark types, and then an Aaron Weatherford type closer. Yes, that is going to be hard to do. So, it will come down to recruiting elite types of players, which we haven't been doing unless they happen to swing by the camp.
I understand you have no idea what happens to a team after they win a Super Regional, but when Cohen starts getting us hosting regionals aGAIN, our trips will be a lot easier to Omaha. Just look at the crowd we had at last years Super in Starkville. No school in the country can match our ability to put butts in the seats or $$$$ bid on hosting regionals. Winning a regional at DNF helps the chances at hosting a Super at DNF, which increases the chances of going to Omaha. Just because your team can't get there doesn't mean we will suffer the same fate.
Sans a freak injury as mentioned above, we coulda won it in 85 (yeah, coulda/woulda/shoulda). I'm sure Brantley & Morgan went in the top 5 rounds, but I can't even remember who our 3rd starter was (anyone remember?). I know Steve King (EE with me) was on that team & became a starter later (maybe the next year). Certainly we had a good reliever (who played like crap in both CWS games he appeared in; although he did get a grand salami as a hitter against the Canes). Plus that recruiting only by camp **** is over. I think we CAN do it in the next 10 (note, I didn't say WILL).
Edited to answer the original buy/sell: I sell simply because I have been an MSU fan too long to think anything really good will happen.
Edited to answer the original buy/sell: I sell simply because I have been an MSU fan too long to think anything really good will happen.
Here are my proposals with the 1st wager based on your statement. I'll take either one individually or both. You make the call unless your scared.
1. Cohen makes the CWS within 10 years.
2. Cohen wins an outright SEC title before Bianco.
I'll wager whatever amount you want to on the 2 seperate bets.
</p>
You are the one that said you were willing to make the wagers, so what's it going to be. Guess you don't have the balls to back up your statement. Name your price for each individual wager. </p>
1. Cohen makes the CWS within 10 years.
2. Cohen wins an outright SEC title before Bianco.
I'll wager whatever amount you want to on the 2 seperate bets.
</p>
You are the one that said you were willing to make the wagers, so what's it going to be. Guess you don't have the balls to back up your statement. Name your price for each individual wager. </p>
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