Well, ****....
- Thread starter Xenomorph
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Well, I see one place that I'd never want to go on a cruise to visit. Just to the right of Cuba on the map is lovely Cockburn Town. No thank you.
G
Goat Holder
Guest
There is no way they can be that for sure that this thing will B-line straight for MS-LA. Like cowbell said, it's just a better story. As many twists and turns as this mfer has made already, it's just effing irrational.
I'm sure it is pretty nice. However, I do think it's probably best when naming a city to avoid naming it after an STD symptom. I'm guessing that they have a town on the other side of the island named Crotchwart Town.
Is this true? I understand it will be closer, but how can we better predict it based on where its location? Does the storm's history help?
G
Goat Holder
Guest
While the storm is in the area of the Carribean, it is in the general area known as "the doldrums"; an area where the steering currents are usually weaker and erratic. As a storm moves into the Gulf, it moves into an area of steering currents known as "the westerlys", which are stronger and relatively more predictable. Of course, other major weather systems, such as the current high pressure system over Florida, combine to ultimately deternine the track, forward speed and intensity of the storm. When the storm moves into the Gulf, the prediction models can be initialized with a great deal more accuracy than they can while the storm is in its current location and, consequently, result in a better forecast. Additionally, a storm in the Gulf will normally be within the three-day landfall forecast period the National Hurricane Center feels much more confident with than the five-day period.
He's going to ease back east and chug right into LA/MS border. Look at the GFDL and here's Masters at WeatherUnderground:
The trough of low pressure moving across the Midwest U.S. expected to pull Gustav northwest towards the Gulf Coast is expected to weaken and be replaced by a ridge of high pressire on Monday. This means that Gustav may stall just before or just after landfall near Louisiana, and be forced westwards. The models are split: the GFS, HWRF, and GFDL models all carry Gustav into Louisaina or Mississippi on Monday, with a possible turn to the west after landfall. The ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET all foresee a turn to the west before Gustav reaches the coast. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models predict an eventual landfall near Corpus Christi, Texas, while the UKMET bends Gustav southwestwards towards Mexico. NHC usually makes their forecast a blend of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, and UKMET model forecasts. A forecast of that blend would show a track to the Texas/Louisiana border region. <span style="font-weight: bold;">However, the current (11 am EDT) forecast cycle throws this cautious approach out the window, and gambles that the GFS/HWRF/GFDL model solution is correct. These models are currently forecasting a stronger hurricane, which would be less likely to be forced westwards. Residents of Texas should be prepared in case the alternative solution materializes, and Gustav takes a sharp turn to the west on Monday.
Masters Blog Link
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The trough of low pressure moving across the Midwest U.S. expected to pull Gustav northwest towards the Gulf Coast is expected to weaken and be replaced by a ridge of high pressire on Monday. This means that Gustav may stall just before or just after landfall near Louisiana, and be forced westwards. The models are split: the GFS, HWRF, and GFDL models all carry Gustav into Louisaina or Mississippi on Monday, with a possible turn to the west after landfall. The ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET all foresee a turn to the west before Gustav reaches the coast. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models predict an eventual landfall near Corpus Christi, Texas, while the UKMET bends Gustav southwestwards towards Mexico. NHC usually makes their forecast a blend of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, and UKMET model forecasts. A forecast of that blend would show a track to the Texas/Louisiana border region. <span style="font-weight: bold;">However, the current (11 am EDT) forecast cycle throws this cautious approach out the window, and gambles that the GFS/HWRF/GFDL model solution is correct. These models are currently forecasting a stronger hurricane, which would be less likely to be forced westwards. Residents of Texas should be prepared in case the alternative solution materializes, and Gustav takes a sharp turn to the west on Monday.
Masters Blog Link
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I'm putting my money on somewhere between Houston and Lake Charles after looking at the models and the historical patterns.dudehead said:He's going to ease back east and chug right into LA/MS border. Look at the GFDL and here's Masters at WeatherUnderground:
The trough of low pressure moving across the Midwest U.S. expected to pull Gustav northwest towards the Gulf Coast is expected to weaken and be replaced by a ridge of high pressire on Monday. This means that Gustav may stall just before or just after landfall near Louisiana, and be forced westwards. The models are split: the GFS, HWRF, and GFDL models all carry Gustav into Louisaina or Mississippi on Monday, with a possible turn to the west after landfall. The ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET all foresee a turn to the west before Gustav reaches the coast. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models predict an eventual landfall near Corpus Christi, Texas, while the UKMET bends Gustav southwestwards towards Mexico. NHC usually makes their forecast a blend of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, and UKMET model forecasts. A forecast of that blend would show a track to the Texas/Louisiana border region. <span style="font-weight: bold;">However, the current (11 am EDT) forecast cycle throws this cautious approach out the window, and gambles that the GFS/HWRF/GFDL model solution is correct. These models are currently forecasting a stronger hurricane, which would be less likely to be forced westwards. Residents of Texas should be prepared in case the alternative solution materializes, and Gustav takes a sharp turn to the west on Monday.
Masters Blog ]
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Intensity is also a factor though. It may run into MS or LA, but it could just dump a **** load of rain and some winds, it doesn't mean it's gonna be a cat5.
You don't know what you are talking about....
Goatholder is the resident SPS meterologist...
I tend to go with the noaa.gov and the NHC.
I am betting on a Morgan City landfall.
No way Karma is going to hit Nola or MS again....
Goatholder is the resident SPS meterologist...
I tend to go with the noaa.gov and the NHC.
I am betting on a Morgan City landfall.
No way Karma is going to hit Nola or MS again....
If the model algorithms have a factor for "other storms within 400 miles of this storm" it probably is multiplied by zero.
..here's a message I just sent someone. Others may find it interesting as well, so thought I'd post it:
Go here: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/#ta
Click on the Spaghetti Model Plots for Atlantic Basin. It'll open in Google Earth and then you have to click on the little boxes on the left under temporary places.
Keep drilling down through the menus. You can turn on and off different storms. You can even keep the late model runs turned on and click on and off of the early model runs to see how they've changed. Pretty cool.
Go here: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/#ta
Click on the Spaghetti Model Plots for Atlantic Basin. It'll open in Google Earth and then you have to click on the little boxes on the left under temporary places.
Keep drilling down through the menus. You can turn on and off different storms. You can even keep the late model runs turned on and click on and off of the early model runs to see how they've changed. Pretty cool.
Animated link
The outflow is significantly improving and the core is rapidly winding - cat 2 today.
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The outflow is significantly improving and the core is rapidly winding - cat 2 today.
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From Dr.Masters wunderground blog from yesterday
"Yesterday, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter research aircraft dropped a network of 60 specialized buoys (Air eXpendable BathyThermographs, or AXBTs) in the Gulf of Mexico to provide precise measurements of ocean temperatures in order to aid intensification forecasts for Gustav. This data are now feeding directly into the GFDL and HWRF computer models, but not into the other global models (GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, and ECMWF). In theory, the intensity forecasts from the GFDL and HWRF models should be better, for the portion of Gustav's track over the Gulf. Both of these models are currently calling for Gustav to be a Category 3 hurricane at landfall. The HWRF is saying this landfall will be near New Orleans Monday night, and the GFDL predicts a Mississippi landfall Monday morning."
"Yesterday, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter research aircraft dropped a network of 60 specialized buoys (Air eXpendable BathyThermographs, or AXBTs) in the Gulf of Mexico to provide precise measurements of ocean temperatures in order to aid intensification forecasts for Gustav. This data are now feeding directly into the GFDL and HWRF computer models, but not into the other global models (GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, and ECMWF). In theory, the intensity forecasts from the GFDL and HWRF models should be better, for the portion of Gustav's track over the Gulf. Both of these models are currently calling for Gustav to be a Category 3 hurricane at landfall. The HWRF is saying this landfall will be near New Orleans Monday night, and the GFDL predicts a Mississippi landfall Monday morning."
The GFDL is counting on the broad high over Florida to weaken to create that track and that hasnt happened yet. I think it will be further west towards Lake Charles.
NOT THAT THIS HAS ANYTHING TO DO WITH ANYTHING, new orleans didn't even get Katrina, the Katrina that Mississippi actually got hit with. All the problems there stemmed from poor design and poor reaction. The flooding was from the levees failing and poor people being concentrated in low lying areas where land is cheaper. Now if the strong side of Katrina did hit there, well then all the <17ing> talk about them would have been correct and the damages would have been Biblical in scale. I am tired of the Katrina excuse. Working in an Architecture office I deal with FEMA/MEMA every freakin day. I am done with Katrina. Just rambling because Gustov is about to eat all our lunches.
<table> <tbody> <tr valign="top"> <td class="chatmsgtext altcaster_text altcaster_text_size" style="BACKGROUND: #ffffff"><span id="txt6185678">From Nola.com meterologist:</span></td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
<table> <tbody> <tr valign="top"> <td class="chatmsgtext altcaster_text altcaster_text_size" style="BACKGROUND: #ffffff"><span id="txt6185678">The HWRF model is being developed by the National Hurricane Center and NOAA, and it is the one that the forecasts have mirrored for the last day or two. Its intensity estimates, size of storm estimates are still pretty questionable, as are all the models. HWRF and GFDL differ from the other models in that they have a "basket" of much smaller grid squares that surrounds the hurricane into which a lot more information is fed, and are supposed to give better results at that close range.</span></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <div id="row6185763"> <div class="chatmsg"> <table> <tbody> <tr valign="top"> <td class="chatmsgname altcaster_text" nowrap="nowrap"> <div style="WIDTH: 45px"></div> </td> <td class="chatmsgtext altcaster_text altcaster_text_size" style="BACKGROUND: #ffffff"><span id="txt6185763"></span></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> </div><span id="txt6185763">But ... all of the models differ depending on the location of the storm and their biases in reading the atmosphere around them. The forecasters judge those biases, based on their experience, in making their forecasts, often moving towards a central path among the forecast models.
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<table> <tbody> <tr valign="top"> <td class="chatmsgtext altcaster_text altcaster_text_size" style="BACKGROUND: #ffffff"><span id="txt6185678">The HWRF model is being developed by the National Hurricane Center and NOAA, and it is the one that the forecasts have mirrored for the last day or two. Its intensity estimates, size of storm estimates are still pretty questionable, as are all the models. HWRF and GFDL differ from the other models in that they have a "basket" of much smaller grid squares that surrounds the hurricane into which a lot more information is fed, and are supposed to give better results at that close range.</span></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <div id="row6185763"> <div class="chatmsg"> <table> <tbody> <tr valign="top"> <td class="chatmsgname altcaster_text" nowrap="nowrap"> <div style="WIDTH: 45px"></div> </td> <td class="chatmsgtext altcaster_text altcaster_text_size" style="BACKGROUND: #ffffff"><span id="txt6185763"></span></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> </div><span id="txt6185763">But ... all of the models differ depending on the location of the storm and their biases in reading the atmosphere around them. The forecasters judge those biases, based on their experience, in making their forecasts, often moving towards a central path among the forecast models.
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