What does it take for an SEC team to make a 12-team playoff?

[pseudonym]

Looking at past CFP rankings and applying the 2024 format, I looked at what records earn a spot in the 12-team playoff.

The TL;DR is 10 wins will probably get you in, but not guaranteed. And 9 wins might get you in, but probably not.

The following records would have had SEC teams in a 12-team playoff in every case:

• undefeated SEC champs (obviously)
• 1-loss teams, including all three possibilities:
  • entered SEC championship game 12-0 and lost
  • entered SEC championship game 11-1 and won
  • finished 11-1 and didn't play in SEC championship game (2017 Alabama)
• 2-loss teams, 2nd loss coming in SEC championship game

After that, you are at the mercy of the committee:

• Two regular season losses, no SEC championship game (83%): This has happened six times since 2014. Five of those 10-2 teams would have been in the 12-team CFP. The one that would have been left out might surprise you.
• Two regular season losses, lost SEC championship game (33%): This only happened three times. Only one would have been in the 12-team CFP (2017 Auburn). Small sample, but it makes you wonder if the SEC championship game will hurt teams trying to make the 12-team CFP.
• Three regular season losses, no SEC championship game (27%): This is the record that will have fans sweating Selection Sunday. Three of the eleven 3-loss teams would have made the 12-team CFP.
• Three regular season losses, lost SEC championship game (0%): Only happened twice, but these teams fared worse than 9-3 teams that didn't go to Atlanta.

My takeaway is that State is not that far from being a team that can play for the CFP. We are typically a 7 or 8 win team. I know the jump from 8-4 to 9-3 is a big one, but that has to be our goal. And with the SEC schedule opening up (more rotating opponents), I think the chances of us having a schedule with 9 wins on it becomes more likely. We will play Alabama and LSU less often and Missouri, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt more often.

check my work:

12-team CFP (*-SEC champ)	record	not selected	record
2022 Georgia*	13-0	2022 LSU	9-4
2022 Alabama	10-2
2022 Tennessee	10-2
2021 Alabama*	12-1	2021 Kentucky	9-3
2021 Georgia	12-1
2021 Ole Miss	10-2
2019 LSU*	13-0	2019 Alabama	10-2
2019 Georgia	11-2	2019 Auburn	9-3
2019 Florida	10-2
2018 Alabama*	13-0	2018 Kentucky	9-3
2018 Georgia	11-2
2018 Florida	9-3
2018 LSU	9-3
2017 Georgia*	12-1	2017 LSU	9-3
2017 Alabama	11-1
2017 Auburn	10-3
2016 Alabama*	13-0	2016 Florida	9-4
2015 Alabama*	12-1	2015 Georgia	9-3
		2015 Florida	10-3
		2015 Ole Miss	9-3
		2015 LSU	8-3
2014 Alabama*	12-1	2014 Missouri	10-3
2014 Mississippi State	10-2	2014 Georgia	9-3
2014 Ole Miss	9-3

record	selected	not selected
undefeated	4	0
one loss (either regular season or SEC champ game)	5	0
one regular season loss, did not play in SEC champ game	1	0
one regular season loss, lost SEC champ game	2	0
two regular season losses, did not play in SEC champ game	5	1
two regular season losses, lost SEC champ game	1	2
three regular season losses, did not play in SEC champ game	3	8
three regular season losses, lost SEC champ game	0	2

 

[Rupert Jenkins]

Call me crazy but in my mind going to a 12 team playoff to make things more "fair" is going to simply wind up with about 8 SEC teams in the playoff and the final game usually will be 2 SEC teams. Fair or is inclusive the proper word ?? Diversity is our greatest strength. Regardless it will be dominated by the SEC.

 

[AstroDog]

I think the SEC should almost have at least 2 teams in the playoffs every year. And could in some years have 3 or 4.

 

[pseudonym]

Call me crazy but in my mind going to a 12 team playoff to make things more "fair" is going to simply wind up with about 8 SEC teams in the playoff and the final game usually will be 2 SEC teams. Fair or is inclusive the proper word ?? Diversity is our greatest strength. Regardless it will be dominated by the SEC.

If you go by past CFP rankings, the SEC would have gotten three teams in a 12-team CFP most years. We would have had four teams selected in 2018 and just one team in 2015 and 2016.

Adding Texas and Oklahoma will increase that number, but it is hard to say by how much until we see those teams compete in the SEC and how their addition increases the overall SOS of the conference in the eyes of the committee.

That being said, I'll be surprised if the SEC gets more than four or five teams in the 12-team CFP. Some of that is the committee trying to spread the bids around, and some of that is just SEC teams beating up on each other. Somebody has to lose those games.

 

[patdog]

If you go by past CFP rankings, the SEC would have gotten three teams in a 12-team CFP most years. We would have had four teams selected in 2018 and just one team in 2015 and 2016.

Adding Texas and Oklahoma will increase that number, but it is hard to say by how much until we see those teams compete in the SEC and how their addition increases the overall SOS of the conference in the eyes of the committee.

That being said, I'll be surprised if the SEC gets more than four or five teams in the 12-team CFP. Some of that is the committee trying to spread the bids around, and some of that is just SEC teams beating up on each other. Somebody has to lose those games.

Agree. I think most years, the SEC will get 3 teams in the playoff and maybe a 4th team 1/3 of the time. I think either 2 or 5 would be rare.

 

[Rupert Jenkins]

You are correct. There will always be UCF or TCU type teams with much better records. 4 would be my honest guess most years. 3 minimum. And as always I firmly believe those teams will be the best out of the bunch. Except the occasional Ohio State team. A 10 win State might can sneak in there.

 

[POTUS]

4 every year except for rare occasions of 5 or 3. There are only 4 conferences for the time being with the PAC imploding. Assuming the Big XII and ACC don’t get 3 every year, that opens up spots for BIG & SEC teams.