What's next in conference realignment?

[patdog]

Short term, maybe not much. Of course, the Big 10 wants Notre Dame and is making a push for them. But they've wanted Notre Dame for 60 years, and Notre Dame has a pretty sweet situation with the ACC and NBC for now. Plus, they know they could always go to the Big 10 any time they want to if/when that situation gets worse. Oregon and Washington (and others) are desperate to join the Big 10, but the problem is they just don't add enough more revenue to offset splitting the pie among more schools and the Big 10 knows they could always take them later if they decide to. The ACC schools are pretty much held hostage to their grant of media rights that doesn't expire until 2036. Other than ACC schools, there's really nobody that makes much sense for the SEC to add. We may see some PAC 12 raiding of the Big 12 or vice versa. But other than that, we're probably set for the next several years.

When the playoff deal ends in 2026, the SEC and Big 10 will be calling the shots. No more talk of automatic bids (PAC 12 and ACC 17ed up royally by blocking the proposed deal last year with auto bids). We'll see an 8 or 12 team playoff, with all but a very few teams coming from the 2 major conferences.

Long term, by about 2031, it will start to make sense for someone to buy out the ACC media rights and free up the top schools to join a major conference. I figure that someone is ESPN since the ACC contract is already a sunk cost for them and the incremental cost wouldn't be as much as for another media outlet. So we could see the SEC add 6-8 ACC schools. The Big 10 will have to counter, so they'll add Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Arizona St., Notre Dame (their ACC sweetheart deal will be worthless then), and maybe Cal.

All of that is just my guess and could completely change tomorrow if something big happens. What do y'all think?

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Short term, maybe not much. Of course, the Big 10 wants Notre Dame and is making a push for them. But they've wanted Notre Dame for 60 years, and Notre Dame has a pretty sweet situation with the ACC and NBC for now. Plus, they know they could always go to the Big 10 any time they want to if/when that situation gets worse. Oregon and Washington (and others) are desperate to join the Big 10, but the problem is they just don't add enough more revenue to offset splitting the pie among more schools and the Big 10 knows they could always take them later if they decide to. The ACC schools are pretty much held hostage to their grant of media rights that doesn't expire until 2036. Other than ACC schools, there's really nobody that makes much sense for the SEC to add. We may see some PAC 12 raiding of the Big 12 or vice versa. But other than that, we're probably set for the next several years.

When the playoff deal ends in 2026, the SEC and Big 10 will be calling the shots. No more talk of automatic bids (PAC 12 and ACC 17ed up royally by blocking the proposed deal last year with auto bids). We'll see an 8 or 12 team playoff, with all but a very few teams coming from the 2 major conferences.

Long term, by about 2031, it will start to make sense for someone to buy out the ACC media rights and free up the top schools to join a major conference. I figure that someone is ESPN since the ACC contract is already a sunk cost for them and the incremental cost wouldn't be as much as for another media outlet. So we could see the SEC add 6-8 ACC schools. The Big 10 will have to counter, so they'll add Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Arizona St., Notre Dame (their ACC sweetheart deal will be worthless then), and maybe Cal.

All of that is just my guess and could completely change tomorrow if something big happens. What do y'all think?

I dunno but I really think the poaching is going to keep happening unless something major happens which is a distinct possibility.

I don't care about Notre Dame. Texas was on that level for me until the decided to join the SEC instead of going the independent route like ND. Notre Dame is not going to do anything unless Notre Dame wants to and only if it make Notre Dame needs to do something to have an even more self-inflated ego about Notre Dame.

 

[GloryDawg]

That USC and UCLA thing came out of no where. I suspect something else will happen now. I could see PAC 12 raiding the Big 12. There is still three State schools that either competes in Basketball or Football. I am talking OK State, Kansas or Kansas State. You might be able to add Baylor or BYU into that mix. They all have something to bring to the table.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

Clemson and NC, then Miami and FSU

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

The ACCs buyout is 100 million. They’re not leaving.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

 

[Smoked Toag]

Nothing right now, as far as SEC and B1G, for reasons you already stated.

PAC-12 may try to grab a couple of teams. Probably UNLV and Boise State.

 

[Go Budaw]

Short term, maybe not much. Of course, the Big 10 wants Notre Dame and is making a push for them. But they've wanted Notre Dame for 60 years, and Notre Dame has a pretty sweet situation with the ACC and NBC for now. Plus, they know they could always go to the Big 10 any time they want to if/when that situation gets worse. Oregon and Washington (and others) are desperate to join the Big 10, but the problem is they just don't add enough more revenue to offset splitting the pie among more schools and the Big 10 knows they could always take them later if they decide to. The ACC schools are pretty much held hostage to their grant of media rights that doesn't expire until 2036. Other than ACC schools, there's really nobody that makes much sense for the SEC to add. We may see some PAC 12 raiding of the Big 12 or vice versa. But other than that, we're probably set for the next several years.

When the playoff deal ends in 2026, the SEC and Big 10 will be calling the shots. No more talk of automatic bids (PAC 12 and ACC 17ed up royally by blocking the proposed deal last year with auto bids). We'll see an 8 or 12 team playoff, with all but a very few teams coming from the 2 major conferences.

Long term, by about 2031, it will start to make sense for someone to buy out the ACC media rights and free up the top schools to join a major conference. I figure that someone is ESPN since the ACC contract is already a sunk cost for them and the incremental cost wouldn't be as much as for another media outlet. So we could see the SEC add 6-8 ACC schools. The Big 10 will have to counter, so they'll add Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Arizona St., Notre Dame (their ACC sweetheart deal will be worthless then), and maybe Cal.

All of that is just my guess and could completely change tomorrow if something big happens. What do y'all think?

There’s absolutely no way in hell that Washington and that TV market wouldn’t be an immediate take for the Big 10. Same for Stanford and/or Cal, and probably Arizona State too. If they’ll add 17ing Nebraska and Maryland, they will absolutely add any of the above schools as soon as they indicate interest.

The predicament that the SEC is in currently is that they don’t have many logical expansion options beyond the current ACC schools (or possibly ND, but lets face it that **** ain’t happening). So for the next move they have to choose between either identifying and giving a sweetheart deal to a few ACC schools, or following the Big 10’s lead on this stupid as hell ******** of adding PAC 12 schools. And by sweetheart deal, I mean all 16 members sacrifice a substantial portion of their TV take home money to help pay the buyout for more than one of UVA, UNC, FSU, Miami, NC State, Duke, or Va Tech to get out of the media agreement.

Whats up next is anybody’s guess. The Big 10 proved that there is no longer any geographical borders in consideration of what should make up a “conference” in college football, and that was pretty much the last domino to fall before the super-conferences / NFL lite began to form. I know what I’d like to see happen going forward, but won’t even pretend to know what actually will happen. Nor will I really care. As far as the big money sports are concerned with MSU, our fate is sealed. We’ve already accomplished all that we ever will accomplish in football and men’s basketball…..100% guaranteed.

 

[Bill Shankly]

Washington and Oregon to the BIG is a no brainer and will happen soon given what's been going on. Notre Dame will continue as is till NBC cuts them off. If/when that happens they immediately join the BIG. The ACC would be being divided between what the SEC wants and doesn't want if it wasn't for the enormous ACC buy out BS. That insures that the ACC stays intact for now. I expect what's left of the rest Big 12 and the PAC to form some sort of new conference from their more desirable elements. That might lead to some stabilization around four big conferences. That could be worked into a pretty good playoff format.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

One of the sports networks should get really smart and hire that guy.

 

[patdog]

One of the sports networks should get really smart and hire that guy.

They really should. He's better than most of what any of them have now.

 

[patdog]

Washington & Oregon to Big 10 could happen tomorrow for all I know. But you have to wonder, if the Big 10 wanted them now, why didn’t they just add 4 teams last week instead of 2. Instead, they got surprised like everyone rise, called the Big 10 begging, and were put on hold.

I think the 8 ACC schools to the SEC will eventually happen. But I don’t see SEC schools sacrificing a lot of TV money for it.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Matt laid it out pretty well in his video. The Big 10s TV contract is up after next year and the PAC12s is up in 2024 so they went after USC and UCLA to bolster their media footprint and marketability to strike a new (and huge) TV deal. I don’t think they’re going to expand beyond that right now.

 

[Smoked Toag]

Washington & Oregon to Big 10 could happen tomorrow for all I know. But you have to wonder, if the Big 10 wanted them now, why didn’t they just add 4 teams last week instead of 2. Instead, they got surprised like everyone rise, called the Big 10 begging, and were put on hold.

I think the 8 ACC schools to the SEC will eventually happen. But I don’t see SEC schools sacrificing a lot of TV money for it.

Yep. Super conferences will eventually happen, but not right now. I mean the SEC and B1G are still obviously better, but when I say "super" I mean like the 20 team conference.

It would kinda suck to be Oregon and Washington right now, knowing you PROBABLY have a seat the next time around, but still have to wonder in the back of your head, what if. They both better do what they have to do to ensure they are still a very attractive brand 10 years from now. I mean why couldn't Stanford, Cal, Arizona State or Colorado make the same claims?

If I'm the Pac-12, you have to make a move. The Big 12 made their move and got some pretty weak teams last year. The first thing I do is GTFO of LA (that ship has sailed) and move your HQ to Vegas. Does this involve adding UNLV? Probably, but not sure. Maybe Nevada itself is a better move. Boise State? New Mexico? City schools or big state schools? What about Hawaii? San Diego State? Fresno State?

 

[QuaoarsKing]

The Arizona 247 writer is saying that Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah are meeting with the Big 12 this week. I can't imagine the Big 12 turning them down if they want in, and they're probably regretting adding Houston and UCF already.

That would leave the Pac-12 at 6: Oregon, Stanford, and Washington would all be potential Big 10 candidates. California also fits the Big 10 profile academically but its fanbase is pretty small and disinterested.

My guess is that Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah to the Big 12 in 2024, while Oregon, Stanford, and Washington go to the Big 10. Oregon State and Washington State end up in the Mountain West, which will try to establish itself as a "power conference," and Cal could end up in any of those 3 conferences.

 

[Smoked Toag]

The Arizona 247 writer is saying that Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah are meeting with the Big 12 this week. I can't imagine the Big 12 turning them down if they want in, and they're probably regretting adding Houston and UCF already.

That would leave the Pac-12 at 6: Oregon, Stanford, and Washington would all be potential Big 10 candidates. California also fits the Big 10 profile academically but its fanbase is pretty small and disinterested.

My guess is that Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah to the Big 12 in 2024, while Oregon, Stanford, and Washington go to the Big 10. Oregon State and Washington State end up in the Mountain West, which will try to establish itself as a "power conference," and Cal could end up in any of those 3 conferences.

Yes they certainly did screw up, but I think it's UCF and Cincinnati that are the problems. I'd cut them out pronto and try to get Oregon State and Washington State instead.

Ultimately I do not think the Big 12 will be able to pull this off.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Sone of the issues with those schools are their academic standards. Boise St being one that has not so great academics.

San Diego State and Fresno State would be easy to add.

 

[dog12]

Short term, maybe not much. Of course, the Big 10 wants Notre Dame and is making a push for them. But they've wanted Notre Dame for 60 years, and Notre Dame has a pretty sweet situation with the ACC and NBC for now. Plus, they know they could always go to the Big 10 any time they want to if/when that situation gets worse. Oregon and Washington (and others) are desperate to join the Big 10, but the problem is they just don't add enough more revenue to offset splitting the pie among more schools and the Big 10 knows they could always take them later if they decide to. The ACC schools are pretty much held hostage to their grant of media rights that doesn't expire until 2036. Other than ACC schools, there's really nobody that makes much sense for the SEC to add. We may see some PAC 12 raiding of the Big 12 or vice versa. But other than that, we're probably set for the next several years.

When the playoff deal ends in 2026, the SEC and Big 10 will be calling the shots. No more talk of automatic bids (PAC 12 and ACC 17ed up royally by blocking the proposed deal last year with auto bids). We'll see an 8 or 12 team playoff, with all but a very few teams coming from the 2 major conferences.

Long term, by about 2031, it will start to make sense for someone to buy out the ACC media rights and free up the top schools to join a major conference. I figure that someone is ESPN since the ACC contract is already a sunk cost for them and the incremental cost wouldn't be as much as for another media outlet. So we could see the SEC add 6-8 ACC schools. The Big 10 will have to counter, so they'll add Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Arizona St., Notre Dame (their ACC sweetheart deal will be worthless then), and maybe Cal.

All of that is just my guess and could completely change tomorrow if something big happens. What do y'all think?

I agree that the Power 5 has evolved into the Power 2. At some point in the not too distant future, the ACC, the Big12 and the PAC12 will have to acknowledge this and accept it.

At that point, all of the schools in those conferences will do one of the following: 1) join the B1G; 2) join the SEC; or 3) become irrelevant in college football. In my opinion, many of them will choose the third option.

Regarding the PAC12, which of the remaining schools would want to keep playing big-time college football? Maybe Oregon? In my opinion, none of the other remaining PAC12 teams care enough about college football.

How about the Big12? Oklahoma State? West Virginia?

Finally, the ACC. I would think there are several ACC schools that want to remain relevant in college football: Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida State, Miami and Virginia Tech. Not sure about the others.

In my opinion, the SEC should be talking now to Notre Dame and Clemson about joining the SEC. I would not pursue any of the remaining PAC12 or the Big12 schools.

I don't think the B1G or the SEC want to make any move that would involve a large number of additional teams (i.e., more than 4) . . . something like merging with the ACC in its entirety. That would be too big of a move. Too many details involving too many schools.

Rather, I think the B1G and SEC will expand in the coming years by 1-4 teams at a time, until all of the schools that want to remain relevant in big-time college football are in either the B1G or the SEC.

Lastly, at some point, the SEC will have to think about whether it wants to be the only game in town with respect to college football (i.e., raid the B1G of their biggest football schools). Regardless, I'm not sure whether any of the B1G schools would have to balls to switch conferences and play in the SEC. Maybe Ohio State and Penn State.

 

[Smoked Toag]

Lastly, at some point, the SEC will have to think about whether it wants to be the only game in town with respect to college football (i.e., raid the B1G of their biggest football schools). Regardless, I'm not sure whether any of the B1G schools would have to balls to switch conferences and play in the SEC. Maybe Ohio State and Penn State.

College Football Civil War.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

View attachment 24676

 

[patdog]

It’s not whether the ACC/PAC 12 schools want to be relevant, it’s which ones the SEC/Big 10 will take.

SEC will never be able to raid the Big 10. And Big 10 will never be able to raid the SEC, with the possible exception of Missouri (which they don’t really want anyway). We’ll wind up with some sort of agreement between equals & some level of cooperation.

 

[patdog]

I think that’s pretty close to accurate. Move the date up to 2035, move Arizona State to the Big 10 & the Virginia schools to the SEC & I think you’re there.

 

[PBDog]

It’s not whether the ACC/PAC 12 schools want to be relevant, it’s which ones the SEC/Big 10 will take.

SEC will never be able to raid the Big 10. And Big 10 will never be able to raid the SEC, with the possible exception of Missouri (which they don’t really want anyway). We’ll wind up with some sort of agreement between equals & some level of cooperation.

The big and sec will never really call a truce - they would cut each other’s throat if given the opportunity. This is an ESPN vs fox war. We’re just pawns.

 

[thatsbaseball]

As fast as things have been moving what's making yall think change is about to slow down for the next decade...just curious because quite frankly I'm having trouble getting my head around what we've already seen.

 

[Smoked Toag]

As fast as things have been moving what's making yall think change is about to slow down for the next decade...just curious because quite frankly I'm having trouble getting my head around what we've already seen.

Understand your POV, but the longer you live, the more you understand where the tipping point for things are. I do think college athletics are about to calm down a little.

This is why all the people like joeleesocks who posted about the economy the past few years look stupid (lumber prices anyone?). Everybody just likes to hot take based on the current state of things, nobody can see long term based on history.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

I just posted a meme from somewhere else. The next five years will be a whirlwind.

 

[coachnorm]

Washington & Oregon to Big 10 could happen tomorrow for all I know. But you have to wonder, if the Big 10 wanted them now, why didn’t they just add 4 teams last week instead of 2. Instead, they got surprised like everyone rise, called the Big 10 begging, and were put on hold.

I think the 8 ACC schools to the SEC will eventually happen. But I don’t see SEC schools sacrificing a lot of TV money for it.

The end game of all this activity is Fox trying to outperform ESPN and ESPN trying to outperform Fox during the critical money making time slots on Saturday. To do this they need the firepower of the top tiered programs and I believe that each will add 4 more to the arsenal. I personally believe that Fox will encroach on ESPN country to secure the Charlotte NC market as a top priority. This is a regional attack on the ESPN conference. This will weaken the ESPN super conference monetarily. The other priority is Notre Dame for the National and Chicago markets. After that Fox will approach a west coast program. The ESPN league will secure the Miami market. The ESPN conference will relegate some SEC assets for non performance and get Big12 replacements to strengthen its monetary power. After the BIG culls some dead weight it will raid further westwards.

Both the ESPN and Fox conferences will determine their own playoff champions and face off for a national champion similar to the Super Bowl. I suspect that both the ESPN and Fox conferences will consist of four 5 team divisions and play off like the NFL.

 

[bruiser.sixpack]

But in the ACC case, can they afford to wait to do something? Right now the league has leverage over its members due to the buy out terms. I see no reason for either the SEC or B1G helping anyone in that league but out.

So, if the B12 and P12 have to do something to salvage their leagues for now and as Matt suggested, be open to Playoff expansion now., the ACC needs to target expansion.

Some have suggested the B12 jumped too soon with Cincinnati and UCF, it may be
that the ACC can negotiate with those programs at B12’s blessing along with WVU to solidify the largest conference membership ahead of TV/ Playoff/Bowl Alliance negotiations.

BC, Syracuse, Pitt, WVU, Va Tech, UVA, Louisville, Cincinnati, Ga Tech, NC, NC St, Duke, Wake, Clemson, FSU, UCF, Miami, USF would be a decent 18 team league.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

The big and sec will never really call a truce - they would cut each other’s throat if given the opportunity. This is an ESPN vs fox war. We’re just pawns.

I have a lot more confidence in Sankey in this war.

 

[ronpolk]

Yep… I’m sure the SEC will add more. Probably end up somewhere around the 20 range.

If I were making the call 4 additional teams I’d to the one of the following:

Solely for TV market: North Carolina, Arizona state, Washington and Virginia

Who id think makes the most logistical sense: North Carolina, Virginia, Clemson either Miami or Florida state.

 

[karlchilders.sixpack]

I'll admit, I did not think it would come down like this.

I expected the Big 12 dissolve into the other Four (sort of)

And so, we would wind up with four major players, and things would settle there.

This is zapping the crap out of rivalry football.

And so, how does basketball and baseball fit into this? They will all be tied together.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Again, none of the ACC teams are jumping ship anytime soon. Their buyout is close to 100 million dollars and their media deal doesn’t end until 2032.

 

[Smoked Toag]

Again, none of the ACC teams are jumping ship anytime soon. Their buyout is close to 100 million dollars and their media deal doesn’t end until 2032.

This is what people continuously overlook.

Notre Dame is not doing anything soon either.

And if the B2G had mutual interest in Oregon/Washington/whoever, why wait?

 

[ronpolk]

Again, none of the ACC teams are jumping ship anytime soon. Their buyout is close to 100 million dollars and their media deal doesn’t end until 2032.

The SEC paid out $54 million to each school last year. The $100 million buy out is just not that big of a number when you’re talking recouping it in 2 years. I guarantee the schools in the ACC that can move won’t just sit on their hands and do nothing.

 

[dog12]

The SEC paid out $54 million to each school last year. The $100 million buy out is just not that big of a number when you’re talking recouping it in 2 years. I guarantee the schools in the ACC that can move won’t just sit on their hands and do nothing.

That's a good point.

In my opinion, the following ACC schools are crazy enough about football to pay the buyout: Clemson, Florida State, Miami, Notre Dame and Virginia Tech.

Another consideration: would the ACC ever consider waiving the buyout requirement, so that every school is free to make their own decisions? Would such a waiver require a unanimous vote?

(Why would a conference "force" a school to stay in the conference? In my opinion, that's a recipe for disaster.)

 

[dog12]

It’s not whether the ACC/PAC 12 schools want to be relevant, it’s which ones the SEC/Big 10 will take.

Yeah, I can agree with that. If we are only going to have 2 major conferences though, then each of those conferences will need at least 24 teams. So, it's a numbers thing. Schools that have the resources and are willing to make the commitment will get into the 2 major conferences.

SEC will never be able to raid the Big 10. And Big 10 will never be able to raid the SEC, with the possible exception of Missouri (which they don’t really want anyway). We’ll wind up with some sort of agreement between equals & some level of cooperation.

Never say never.

If a school wants to play college football against the best competition, then that school must play in the SEC. (That's just my opinion. It is not my intention to offend anyone.)

2019 National Champion - LSU. 2020 National Champion - Alabama. 2021 National Champion - Georgia.

I'm fairly certain that schools like Ohio State and Penn State would agree that the best college football teams play in the SEC.

Let's say an SEC team wins the next 5 National Championships in college football. If that happens, then I could see Ohio State and Penn State being willing to consider membership in the SEC.

Of course, lots of things can happen in 5 years. The SEC should be closely monitoring everything on a consistent basis. Also, if I were Sankey, then I would at least mention to Ohio State and Penn State, "When you're ready to play college football in the best conference, let me know and we'll talk."

 

[dog12]

Understand your POV, but the longer you live, the more you understand where the tipping point for things are. I do think college athletics are about to calm down a little.

This is why all the people like joeleesocks who posted about the economy the past few years look stupid (lumber prices anyone?). Everybody just likes to hot take based on the current state of things, nobody can see long term based on history.

Here's what I see in the long term:

The B1G and the SEC will have 32 teams each in four 8-team divisions.

Each team in each division will play the other 7 teams in the division, plus 1 team from each of the other three divisions. This would give us a 10-game regular season. (If that's not enough games, then each team could play 2 teams from the other divisions for a 13-game regular season.)

The winner of each division will advance into the college football playoffs. The winner of each conference would be decided in two games, and those two teams would meet for the National Championship.

Another possible wrinkle: if you want to add another round to the playoffs, then the top two teams in each division could play for the division championship.

Essentially, we'd have a college version of the NFL.

 

[Duke Humphrey]

Its not just the $100m buyout. Its the buyout plus all of their media rights money until 2035-36. When they signed the deal with ESPN they gave their "grant of rights" to the conference.

 

[8dog]

The ACC isn’t paying them zero so it’s not going to get recouped in 2 years.

 

[Smoked Toag]

Here's what I see in the long term:

The B1G and the SEC will have 32 teams each in four 8-team divisions.

Each team in each division will play the other 7 teams in the division, plus 1 team from each of the other three divisions. This would give us a 10-game regular season. (If that's not enough games, then each team could play 2 teams from the other divisions for a 13-game regular season.)

The winner of each division will advance into the college football playoffs. The winner of each conference would be decided in two games, and those two teams would meet for the National Championship.

Another possible wrinkle: if you want to add another round to the playoffs, then the top two teams in each division could play for the division championship.

Essentially, we'd have a college version of the NFL.

Yes, and coachnorm alluded to the same thing earlier. Who knows exactly what it will look like, but it certainly appears to be a TV network showdown that eventually does something to the effect of what you guys just said. That may mean the playoff is expanded, or it may mean each 'conference' has their own playoff (same thing essentially).