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Will we start 0-6 in SEC play?

18IsTheMan

18IsTheMan

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We won't be favored in any conference games until we play Vandy on 11/9 in our 7th conference game. We open SEC play with UK on the road. We have won the last 2 contests against them, but we won't be favored in this one. Outside of Vandy, this is the only game we could reasonably expect a possible win in SEC play heading into the season. After that, it's a pretty grueling gauntlet of LSU, Ole Miss, Bama and OU. Our next most likely shot for a W comes against A&M on 11/2, and I would only consider that game even in the realm of a toss-up because it's at home. A&M has simply had our number since they joined the league, even when they've not been good. We only managed to barely beat them when they had a horrendously awful team in 2022, and at that, we did all we could possibly do to cough the game up at the end.

The UK game shapes up to be a bellwether of sorts for our season. It fortuitous in a way that we start the season with them. Getting off to a 1-0 start in SEC play would be big psychologically and give us whatever little bit of momentum is possible heading into the home game against LSU. On the other hand, if we lose one our 2 winnable SEC games to open the conference season, it will put us in a hole too deep to climb out of with 7 conference games left to play.

Beating UK doesn't mean we're in shape for a good season, but losing that game almost certainly derails our season from the outset. Much as losing the UNC game last year set the tone for a bad season.
 
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Lurker123

Lurker123

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18IsTheMan said:
We won't be favored in any conference games until we play Vandy on 11/9 in our 7th conference game. We open SEC play with UK on the road. We have won the last 2 contests against them, but we won't be favored in this one. Outside of Vandy, this is the only game we could reasonably expect a possible win in SEC play heading into the season. After that, it's a pretty grueling gauntlet of LSU, Ole Miss, Bama and OU. Our next most likely shot for a W comes against A&M on 11/2, and I would only consider that game even in the realm of a toss-up because it's at home. A&M has simply had our number since they joined the league, even when they've not been good. We only managed to barely beat them when they had a horrendously awful team in 2022, and at that, we did all we could possibly do to cough the game up at the end.

The UK game shapes up to be a bellwether of sorts for our season. It fortuitous in a way that we start the season with them. Getting off to a 1-0 start in SEC play would be big psychologically and give us whatever little bit of momentum is possible heading into the home game against LSU. On the other hand, if we lose one our 2 winnable SEC games to open the conference season, it will put us in a hole too deep to climb out of with 7 conference games left to play.

Beating UK doesn't mean we're in shape for a good season, but losing that game almost certainly derails our season from the outset. Much as losing the UNC game last year set the tone for a bad season.
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I read your whole post thinking "just like UNC last year", and then you ended with it.

I agree

We can get to a bowl with a Kentucky loss, but it would be a huge uphill battle. That is a big game that will affect the trajectory of the season.
 
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Big JC

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UK will be tough this year. Vandergriff at qb is going to give them a legit scoring threat every possession. They are always very physical on the LOS and somehow always manage to have a pretty good running back.

If we can manage a win against them, the season may be surprisingly good.
 
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Prestonyte

Prestonyte

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18IsTheMan said:
We won't be favored in any conference games until we play Vandy on 11/9 in our 7th conference game. We open SEC play with UK on the road. We have won the last 2 contests against them, but we won't be favored in this one. Outside of Vandy, this is the only game we could reasonably expect a possible win in SEC play heading into the season. After that, it's a pretty grueling gauntlet of LSU, Ole Miss, Bama and OU. Our next most likely shot for a W comes against A&M on 11/2, and I would only consider that game even in the realm of a toss-up because it's at home. A&M has simply had our number since they joined the league, even when they've not been good. We only managed to barely beat them when they had a horrendously awful team in 2022, and at that, we did all we could possibly do to cough the game up at the end.

The UK game shapes up to be a bellwether of sorts for our season. It fortuitous in a way that we start the season with them. Getting off to a 1-0 start in SEC play would be big psychologically and give us whatever little bit of momentum is possible heading into the home game against LSU. On the other hand, if we lose one our 2 winnable SEC games to open the conference season, it will put us in a hole too deep to climb out of with 7 conference games left to play.

Beating UK doesn't mean we're in shape for a good season, but losing that game almost certainly derails our season from the outset. Much as losing the UNC game last year set the tone for a bad season.
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Lose to KY and we will have to upset some much better teams to salvage the season.
 
18IsTheMan

18IsTheMan

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Prestonyte said:
Lose to KY and we will have to upset some much better teams to salvage the season.
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For me, UK is the gateway to any kind of semi-respectable season. Just as @Lurker123 noted above with UNC last year. Most felt if we won that game, we could be in for a pretty good season. But if we lost, it was going to be a rough season. The latter proved true, of course. We can always hold out hope for a fluke upset or something, but reality is, if we can't beat UK, we almost certainly aren't beating LSU, Ole Miss, Bama, OU, A&M or Mizzou.

We could still have a bad season if we lost to UK, but we WILL have a bad season if we lose to them.
 
18IsTheMan

18IsTheMan

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No matter what, I think we will be in the running for one of our worst SEC seasons ever. We've had three 2-win seasons (discounting 2020 which had 10 conference games), one 1-win season (in the infamous 2015 season) and two winless seasons.

This is all on paper. If Sellers lives up to expectations, Sanders lives up to expectations, the OL is good as they told us it would be last year if healthy, Harbor takes strides at WR and some of the new guys step up, and the defense finds some stoppers, then the calculus changes.
 
92Pony

92Pony

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18IsTheMan said:
No matter what, I think we will be in the running for one of our worst SEC seasons ever. We've had three 2-win seasons (discounting 2020 which had 10 conference games), one 1-win season (in the infamous 2015 season) and two winless seasons.

This is all on paper. If Sellers lives up to expectations, Sanders lives up to expectations, the OL is good as they told us it would be last year if healthy, Harbor takes strides at WR and some of the new guys step up, and the defense finds some stoppers, then the calculus changes.
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Sounds pretty simple to me..... (sigh)
 
will110

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If we start 0-6 that will be pretty disappointing. Not inconceivable, of course. That schedule is brutal.
 
Harvard Gamecock

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18IsTheMan said:
No matter what, I think we will be in the running for one of our worst SEC seasons ever. We've had three 2-win seasons (discounting 2020 which had 10 conference games), one 1-win season (in the infamous 2015 season) and two winless seasons.

This is all on paper. If Sellers lives up to expectations, Sanders lives up to expectations, the OL is good as they told us it would be last year if healthy, Harbor takes strides at WR and some of the new guys step up, and the defense finds some stoppers, then the calculus changes.
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"If. A two letter word for futility". SIdney Sheldon
 
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gamecock stock

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will110 said:
If we start 0-6 that will be pretty disappointing. Not inconceivable, of course. That schedule is brutal.
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Not easy. But playing a few of them at home gives us a chance. That being said, kudos to Ole Miss and Missouri for not rolling the dice and thus going out to hire coaches who had previously shown they could win big. The SEC is no place to get
"on-the-job" training. SEC football is shark-infested waters.
 
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18IsTheMan

18IsTheMan

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gamecock stock said:
Should that happen, 2025 will be "make or break" for Beamer, and should be, imho.
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I'm pretty sure it will be regardless. Barring a miracle with us coming out of this schedule with something like 8 wins, I think 2025 is going to be the year he has to show something.
 
will110

will110

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gamecock stock said:
Not easy. But playing a few of them at home gives us a chance. That being said, kudos to Ole Miss and Missouri for not rolling the dice and thus going out to hire coaches who had previously shown they could win big. The SEC is no place to get
"on-the-job" training. SEC football is shark-infested waters.
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I wanted Carolina to hire Kiffin instead of Muschamp back in '16.
 
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Harvard Gamecock

Harvard Gamecock

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gamecock stock said:
Not easy. But playing a few of them at home gives us a chance. That being said, kudos to Ole Miss and Missouri for not rolling the dice and thus going out to hire coaches who had previously shown they could win big. The SEC is no place to get
"on-the-job" training. SEC football is shark-infested waters.
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Carolina AD office did not get this memo.
 
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Tngamecock

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we should cancel the season……glad none of you played with me……. being miserable about something that hasn’t happened has to be miserable.
 
F

FootballLVR

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18IsTheMan said:
We won't be favored in any conference games until we play Vandy on 11/9 in our 7th conference game. We open SEC play with UK on the road. We have won the last 2 contests against them, but we won't be favored in this one. Outside of Vandy, this is the only game we could reasonably expect a possible win in SEC play heading into the season. After that, it's a pretty grueling gauntlet of LSU, Ole Miss, Bama and OU. Our next most likely shot for a W comes against A&M on 11/2, and I would only consider that game even in the realm of a toss-up because it's at home. A&M has simply had our number since they joined the league, even when they've not been good. We only managed to barely beat them when they had a horrendously awful team in 2022, and at that, we did all we could possibly do to cough the game up at the end.

The UK game shapes up to be a bellwether of sorts for our season. It fortuitous in a way that we start the season with them. Getting off to a 1-0 start in SEC play would be big psychologically and give us whatever little bit of momentum is possible heading into the home game against LSU. On the other hand, if we lose one our 2 winnable SEC games to open the conference season, it will put us in a hole too deep to climb out of with 7 conference games left to play.

Beating UK doesn't mean we're in shape for a good season, but losing that game almost certainly derails our season from the outset. Much as losing the UNC game last year set the tone for a bad season.
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Wait 'til next year!!!
 
Thunderstick

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18IsTheMan said:
"...If Sellers lives up to expectations, Sanders lives up to expectations, the OL is good as they told us it would be last year if healthy, Harbor takes strides at WR and some of the new guys step up, and the defense finds some stoppers, then the calculus changes."
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Sadly, there are too many "ifs" for us to prosper or pass this calculus test.
 
18IsTheMan

18IsTheMan

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Thunderstick said:
If not "ok" we’re certainly used to it.
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Yeah, I'm not giddy about the proposition, but it would hardly be a stunning development in Gamecock football.

We probably won't start 0-6, but with our schedule, we certainly could.
 
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