Yet another must win game vs a suddenly beatable A&M

[18IsTheMan]

A few weeks ago A&M looked to be on the rise, sitting at 6-4, with impressive wins against UF and UT, but they have since fallen into a 4-game slide, in which they have lost to Vandy and Arkansas, 2 of the bottom 3 teams in the league. Hopefully we catch them with their spirits down and reeling after just taking a 35-point beating against UT. If we can take care of business in this game, I actually like our chances against UF at CLA. They have 3 road wins wins this year: Mizzou, UGA and UK, against 5 road losses. One of the worse road records in the conference.

But we need to build our confidence back on Wednesday first. I genuinely don't know what to expect.

In our last 3, we were smoked from start to finish against Auburn, crapped the bed in the 2nd half against LSU and played one really good half against Ole Miss.

 

[Prestonyte]

As you stated, the team has experienced bad road performances and have hopefully learned some lessons to help them focus on the end goal, one game at a time.

 

[will110]

A few weeks ago A&M looked to be on the rise, sitting at 6-4, with impressive wins against UF and UT, but they have since fallen into a 4-game slide, in which they have lost to Vandy and Arkansas, 2 of the bottom 3 teams in the league. Hopefully we catch them with their spirits down and reeling after just taking a 35-point beating against UT. If we can take care of business in this game, I actually like our chances against UF at CLA. They have 3 road wins wins this year: Mizzou, UGA and UK, against 5 road losses. One of the worse road records in the conference.

But we need to build our confidence back on Wednesday first. I genuinely don't know what to expect.

In our last 3, we were smoked from start to finish against Auburn, crapped the bed in the 2nd half against LSU and played one really good half against Ole Miss.

I don't think this is "must-win." I find it impossible to believe that we don't make the tournament even if we lose out. That would put our record at 22-9 (10-8 SEC). Huge wins against Kentucky and at Tennessee. There's just no way that team, with that resume, gets left out.

That said we do need the win because we're still in real contention for the SEC championship.

 

[18IsTheMan]

I don't think this is "must-win." I find it impossible to believe that we don't make the tournament even if we lose out. That would put our record at 22-9 (10-8 SEC). Huge wins against Kentucky and at Tennessee. There's just no way that team, with that resume, gets left out.

That said we do need the win because we're still in real contention for the SEC championship.

I didn't say it was must-win for our tourney hopes. But, stranger things have happened. Lose out, lose our bye in the SECT, lose our first game in the SECT and I think we will have at least moved in the vicinity of the bubble.

I think it's a must-win psychologically. A&M is not terribly good and we are a top 25 team. After getting blasted into oblivion by Auburn and crapping the bed in spectacular fashion at home against a mediocre LSU, we need to re-establish ourselves.

 

[Uscg1984]

I don't think this is "must-win." I find it impossible to believe that we don't make the tournament even if we lose out. That would put our record at 22-9 (10-8 SEC). Huge wins against Kentucky and at Tennessee. There's just no way that team, with that resume, gets left out.

That said we do need the win because we're still in real contention for the SEC championship.

I don't think it's a given that we get in if we lose out (not that I think we'll lose out). Perhaps I am paranoid, but I earned that paranoia watching the 2015-16 squad get snubbed by the committee after going 24-7 (11-7) in the regular season with wins against Depaul, Memphis, St. Johns, Clemson, and at #8 Texas A&M. We lost 2 of our last 3 and 4 of our last 7, so there was a feeling that team was fading down the stretch. We managed to finish 3rd in the conference, but went 0-1 in the SECT. That seemed to cement a "narrative" that a Gamecocks team who had overachieved for most of the season had finally started playing to its ability over the last 1/3 of the season. That apparently gave the committee just enough ammo to keep us out.

I want to avoid a similar scenario this year. We're kind of a Cinderella team right now, based on the abysmal preseason expectations for this squad. I'm sure there are plenty of doubters out there who are waiting for us to play down to the earlier expectations.

One thing going for us this time is that the SEC is considered a strong conference top to bottom. But I don't want to go into the SECT feeling like we have to win a game or two to assure ourselves of a spot.

 

[will110]

I don't think it's a given that we get in if we lose out (not that I think we'll lose out). Perhaps I am paranoid, but I earned that paranoia watching the 2015-16 squad get snubbed by the committee after going 24-7 (11-7) in the regular season with wins against Depaul, Memphis, St. Johns, Clemson, and at #8 Texas A&M. We lost 2 of our last 3 and 4 of our last 7, so there was a feeling that team was fading down the stretch. We managed to finish 3rd in the conference, but went 0-1 in the SECT. That seemed to cement a "narrative" that a Gamecocks team who had overachieved for most of the season had finally started playing to its ability over the last 1/3 of the season. That apparently gave the committee just enough ammo to keep us out.

I want to avoid a similar scenario this year. We're kind of a Cinderella team right now, based on the abysmal preseason expectations for this squad. I'm sure there are plenty of doubters out there who are waiting for us to play down to the earlier expectations.

One thing going for us this time is that the SEC is considered a strong conference top to bottom. But I don't want to go into the SECT feeling like we have to win a game or two to assure ourselves of a spot.

I think this is the difference this time around. While the 2015/16 team was clearly screwed over by the committee, the SEC was not nearly the basketball conference that it is today. I mean only THREE SEC teams made the tournament that year.

This team hopefully won't fade down the stretch, because playing for a high seed and a conference championship is new ground for Gamecock basketball. But I am confident this team is in the tournament regardless of how it finishes the season (barring a complete collapse where it gets embarrassed every game).

 

[18IsTheMan]

I don't think it's a given that we get in if we lose out (not that I think we'll lose out). Perhaps I am paranoid, but I earned that paranoia watching the 2015-16 squad get snubbed by the committee after going 24-7 (11-7) in the regular season with wins against Depaul, Memphis, St. Johns, Clemson, and at #8 Texas A&M. We lost 2 of our last 3 and 4 of our last 7, so there was a feeling that team was fading down the stretch. We managed to finish 3rd in the conference, but went 0-1 in the SECT. That seemed to cement a "narrative" that a Gamecocks team who had overachieved for most of the season had finally started playing to its ability over the last 1/3 of the season. That apparently gave the committee just enough ammo to keep us out.

I want to avoid a similar scenario this year. We're kind of a Cinderella team right now, based on the abysmal preseason expectations for this squad. I'm sure there are plenty of doubters out there who are waiting for us to play down to the earlier expectations.

One thing going for us this time is that the SEC is considered a strong conference top to bottom. But I don't want to go into the SECT feeling like we have to win a game or two to assure ourselves of a spot.

Right. We've learned you just don't want to give the committee any reasons to doubt. I feel like we've done enough at this point in a tough conference to warrant a bid, but I wouldn't say we're an absolute lock today in the eyes of the committee. There are teams every year that thought they were a lock who didn't make it.

 

[RUMMENIGGE]

Right. We've learned you just don't want to give the committee any reasons to doubt. I feel like we've done enough at this point in a tough conference to warrant a bid, but I wouldn't say we're an absolute lock today in the eyes of the committee. There are teams every year that thought they were a lock who didn't make it.

I think South Carolina is in the tournament for two reasons. First, they deserve it with two victories over two top ten teams in eight days and winning at the moment five conference road games to go along with a 12-1 non conference record. Second, Coach Paris has became a sensation this year in college basketball which I would think the selection committee would pick South Carolina over their peers for the tournament.

 

[Deleted11512]

1 game back right now. Obviously need to win out to win the regular season. Need Bama to lose two. The play @ Miss, vs UT, and @ UF, vs Ark. Winning out would knock out UT. AU needs to lose one. They play @ UT Wed. I'll say again, just crazy that we're even able to have this conversation.

 

[DrMickeySC]

1 game back right now. Obviously need to win out to win the regular season. Need Bama to lose two. The play @ Miss, vs UT, and @ UF, vs Ark. Winning out would knock out UT. AU needs to lose one. They play @ UT Wed. I'll say again, just crazy that we're even able to have this conversation.

I don’t know if this has changed, but I thought that in the past there were no tie-breakers for regular season champions. Meaning, if Bama loses one and we don’t, we are co-champions regardless of head-to-head. Can anyone verify? And yes, it is crazy that we are having this discussion. Even if the chances are low right now. They were a LOT lower this time last year

 

[USCEE82]

Right. We've learned you just don't want to give the committee any reasons to doubt. I feel like we've done enough at this point in a tough conference to warrant a bid, but I wouldn't say we're an absolute lock today in the eyes of the committee. There are teams every year that thought they were a lock who didn't make it.

Couldn't agree more with your second sentence. Eight years ago, 25 wins wasn't enough. Our basketball program just gets no respect. Did anyone else notice how many weeks went by before the AP voters took notice?

 

[31 Flavors]

I think this is the difference this time around. While the 2015/16 team was clearly screwed over by the committee, the SEC was not nearly the basketball conference that it is today. I mean only THREE SEC teams made the tournament that year.

This team hopefully won't fade down the stretch, because playing for a high seed and a conference championship is new ground for Gamecock basketball. But I am confident this team is in the tournament regardless of how it finishes the season (barring a complete collapse where it gets embarrassed every game).

Yes, three teams did make it that year, but one of them was Vanderbilt, who were 11-7 (tied for 3rd with Carolina), 19-14 overall, and a team Carolina BEAT. That pick made no sense at all.

Oh, and the win at A&M that year was late in the season. I naively thought that win had locked it.

 

[Beanerball]

It’s still predicted 9 SEC teams are in , so stay out of the 9th spot to end the doubt. Frankly, I don’t see us dropping anywhere near the 9th spot. Still, as the poster said, it’s a big game we need to win. I think it would solidify our bid no matter what happens next. The league is very solid this year, best in the country in depth of talented teams.

 

[SCWarlock]

1 game back right now. Obviously need to win out to win the regular season. Need Bama to lose two. The play @ Miss, vs UT, and @ UF, vs Ark. Winning out would knock out UT. AU needs to lose one. They play @ UT Wed. I'll say again, just crazy that we're even able to have this conversation.

maybe unpopular opinion but winning the SEC isn't nearly as important as just finishing in the top four(? i believe) to get the double bye. I won't go so far as to say that the SEC regular season champions title is meaningless (especially to us who have experienced very limited success) but if given the choice I'd choose finishing high enough for that double bye in the SEC tourney. fresh legs are going to be hard to come by if we are to make a trouney run.