Predicting ceiling, floor for Duke in 2024 season

The Manny Diaz era begins at Duke this season as the defensive mastermind returns to the ACC and follows in the footsteps of Mike Elko. Taking over the reins of a Blue Devils program that will have to rebuild in various areas if they want to see success in 2024.

Between several losses in the transfer portal and to the NFL, it’s no secret that Diaz and his new coaching staff have their work cut out for them this upcoming season. Joining an ACC that will look much different than when he was the head coach at Miami in 2021.

ACC Network’s Roddy Jones joined Andy Staples On3 to discuss Duke’s upcoming season. Breaking down what the best and worst case scenario will look like for the Blue Devils ahead of a season that has some uncertainty.

Ceiling: 5-7

“I’m sorry Manny, I’m sorry that you walk into this situation,” Jones said. “So much of our initial thoughts about our head coach come after year one, year two. Mike Elko walked into a really good situation where he had a Riley Leonard, he had a defense that the bones were pretty good, a program that just needed a boost. Manny Diaz is kind of walking into the opposite, the cupboard is bare, and it’s not Mike Elko’s fault.”

Both Jones and Staples made it clear that they do believe Diaz is a good head coach, but one that is also facing some adversity between his current roster and the schedule this upcoming season. With reaching a bowl game with six wins seeming out of the realm of possibility in Jones’ eyes given the Blue Devils’ overall personnel, especially in the trenches.

“That offensive line they all just graduated or got drafted, that defensive line largely they all just graduated and got drafted. They had a guy transfer out, but it’s just how it worked out for Manny Diaz. I think the ceiling, and I’m probably stretching a little bit here, I think the ceiling is probably 5-7,” Jones said.

Floor: 2-10

With an ideal Duke season still being below under .500, things could get grim in Durham this year for the Blue Devils. Who Jones believes do not have many favorable matchups in both conference and non-conference play this year.

“The floor is somewhere in that in that two (win) range. Because I think Northwestern and UConn, you look at what David Braun did at Northwestern last year, you go up there. I don’t think that’s a sure thing and I don’t think UConn’s a sure thing,” Jones said. “And then when you get an ACC play, they’re on paper probably as good as Wake (Forest) but that’s about it.”

Jones added that Duke could not even field an entire offensive line during their spring game as the program looks to keep adding to their roster and re-establishing a new culture under Diaz. With a potential two-win season representing a tough deck handed to Diaz versus a poor coaching job in his first year at the helm.

“It is a tough situation and you have to consider what the coach walks into. Elko had an incredible first year at Duke, but it was a very different situation. And like I said, when you’re awaiting on your offensive line to finish school at Lafayette and Cornell that’s not the situation you want. I’m with you on the 5-7, 2-10,” Staples said in agreement.