Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Oklahoma Sooners in 2024

On Wednesday morning’s live On3 YouTube show, Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire took on the mountainous task of evaluating the ceiling and floor for each SEC football team heading into the first year of the expanded conference.

When it came to Oklahoma in their first year with the SEC, they had some serious questions about the offensive line and OU’s young QB behind it. However, there’s also a lot to like about the talent in other spots, plus, the Sooners do have a path to a hot start in 2024.

Let’s start with the optimism.

Ceiling: College Football Playoff berth

Andy Staples declared that “Oklahoma is a big mystery right now” and he could see any range of outcomes for the Sooners this fall, including a playoff appearance.

“My ceiling is CFP berth and I believe anything in between,” Staples said. “They did just (get) Damonic Williams. So defensively, probably as deep as they’ve been in years.”

And Cody Bellaire piggy-backed off that to compliment OU’s skill talent on the other side of the ball.

“They have a great skill room, they really do. They added some firepower in Deion Burks, you got Nic Anderson who’s going to be a great player for them,” Bellaire said. “They added some reliable tight end options in Jake Roberts from Baylor, the Bauer Sharp kid who’s a great athlete. The running back room is still very strong — Gavin Sawchuk, Jovantae Barnes, Kalib Hicks — a very dynamic group back there.”

With plenty of talent around the OL and QB, plus a strong foundation on defense, Bellaire believes Oklahoma needs to get off to a good start to build confidence in Jackson Arnold.

“I think the way this team operates out the gate is extremely vital to this team’s success down the line,” he said.

Staples agreed and laid out the case for Oklahoma getting off to a 4-1 or 5-1 start.

“That Tennessee game, that game at Auburn, those are critical,” Staples said. “I think you got to split those and then you’re probably 4-1 going into Texas. You beat Texas last year. Like, I’m not handing Texas a win against Oklahoma.”

If Oklahoma trumps Texas once again in the Red River Showdown and is sitting there as a zero or one-loss team, then those CFP dreams start becoming a little more realistic.

Floor: 6-6

For as great as Oklahoma’s roster is in other areas, Staples and Bellaire really believe that offensive line could be the killer, especially if they are getting beat up early on to send Arnold running for his life.

“They love their quarterback in Jackson Arnold. But that offensive line, they’ve just kind of had to piece it together. Are they going to be able to hold up? You do not want to come into this league having to rebuild your offensive line,” said Staples.

Cody Bellaire responded that it’s “a recipe for disaster fielding borderline a completely new offensive line unit.”

“None of that helps if the offensive line can’t protect or move defenders off the ball. I’ve seen this song and dance before where you have a highly touted quarterback,” Bellaire said. “But when you’re the guy that has to go on the road in the SEC in some of the most hostile environments in the world, if you get beat up early, there’s a world where Jackson Arnold could be seeing ghosts and that rarely goes away.”

Bellaire continued, digging on Oklahoma for not having the offensive line in better shape for a young and highly talented QB

“My point being: if you aren’t willing to protect your quarterback of the future, then what are we doing?” Bellaire said. “I think that’s the message Brent Venables has to send is, ‘hey, if I can protect this guy, the five-star talent will show up on the field.’ I think he’s going to be able to buy himself at least one more year and if he doesn’t fulfill that promise, he’s done.”

Bold words from Bellaire. But Andy Staples also believes Brent Venables could be in trouble moving forward if Oklahoma hits their floor.

“My floor is still actually only 6-6. Like, I don’t think there’s a world where they don’t make a bowl game,” said Staples. “But my question is, If they’re 6-6, 7-5, what do you do about Brent Venables? How do you feel if you’re the athletic director, because you are Oklahoma, that ain’t good enough. And you would have two seasons out of three of ‘ain’t good enough.'”

There could be a lot of heat on the Sooner head coach if Arnold and this 2024 team really struggle and sink towards Staples’ projected floor.