2023 NFL Draft: First Round Selections From Preps to Pros

Starting Thursday night, the NFL’s future stars will hear their names called in the 2023 NFL Draft. It’s the latest step in those prospects’ journeys through football, which all started at the high school level.

Former five-star recruits make up a majority of the picks over the last five years. Players rated as five-stars have a 57.3% draft rate from 2017-22, and in 2022 alone, five-star recruits had a 59.4% draft rate. In fact, six of the top 10 picks in 2022 were rated as five-stars out of high school. That includes, Travon Walker, who went No. 1 overall and was the No. 27-ranked player in the nation from the 2017 cycle, according to the On3 Industry Ranking, a weighted average that utilizes all four major recruiting media companies.

As the 2023 NFL Draft gets underway, On3’s Director of Scouting and Rankings Charles Power looks back on his evaluations of this year’s class when they were in high school and discussing each pick as commissioner Roger Goodell reads their names from the podium in Kansas City.

1. Carolina Panthers (via Chicago Bears)

Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

“Bryce Young had the best combination of feel, field vision and reactive quickness I’ve seen from a high school quarterback prospect,” Power said. “That combination of skills has been his differentiating trait dating back to high school. I saw Young throw hundreds of balls both in person at the Elite 11 and Opening Finals and at the All-American Bowl and in games on Friday nights. He was consistently great in every setting, but really stood out 11-on-11 football against a pass rush. The game just moved so slow for him in those live situations. We saw that carry over to his time in Tuscaloosa. 

“I was an advocate for Young as the top quarterback in the cycle for the majority, if not all of the process. Though we had a healthy debate in the rankings process, he left little doubt he was the top quarterback and top overall prospect after turning in one of the best senior seasons we saw in years. He backed that up by a dominant week at the All-American Bowl. Young’s passes rarely seemed to hit the ground all week and he was incredible in the game, earning MVP honors. He was and remains a huge outlier from a size perspective, but we thought he had the compensatory skills to be a great college player and ultimately become a top draft pick.

“Our confidence was high enough at the time that we felt we had great odds of hitting on the future No. 1 pick. Turns out that’s what happened. Young is the second quarterback (Trevor Lawrence) and just the fourth player (Jadeveon Clowney, Myles Garrett) to be ranked No. 1 as a high school prospect and taken with the top pick in the draft.”

2. Houston Texans

CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State

“CJ Stroud had one of the biggest rises we’ve seen from a quarterback prospect in the past several cycles, going from a three-star prospect with a handful of Power 5 offers to a five-star and coveted by top programs in a span of a few months,” Power said. “We had Stroud tabbed as a potential riser coming out of his junior season based on his film and early camp showings. You could see he was physically gifted and naturally coordinated. I also loved that he was a spot up shooter in basketball. Stroud’s ascent started at the Elite 11 and Opening Finals. He was the top quarterback at the event along with Bryce Young and ended up taking the MVP Honors.

“Stroud looked naturally technical and could effortlessly replicate his throwing motion, resulting on steady accuracy. He carried that over to the field as a senior, more than doubling his production. He became highly sought after and ultimately signed with Ohio State after late official visits. We saw Stroud one final time at the All-American Bowl. He carved up defenses in practice, often targeting his future Ohio State teammate, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I recall hearing Stroud say how confident he felt and it was easy to see. After the week, it was apparent the gap between Stroud and Bryce Young/DJ Uiagalelei had shortened. We opted to make Stroud a five-star prospect and were the only outlet to do so. In hindsight, he should’ve been a higher, more like a top ten prospect.”

3. Houston Texans (via Arizona Cardinals)

Will Anderson, LB, Alabama

“We always loved Will Anderson’s film, dating back to his junior season at Dutchtown High in Georgia,” Power said. “The senior film was especially awesome. Anderson showed exceptional first-step quickness, bursting into the backfield and exploding into ball carriers behind the line of scrimmage. Some of the collisions looked like car crashes. Unlike most of the other top prospects at that stage, we didn’t get to see Anderson in person and verify his size until later in the process. Regardless, Anderson was steadily moving up the rankings due to his film. We finally got to see him at the All-American Bowl. Anderson measured in at 6-foot-3, 230 pounds with 34-inch arms, checking the size box.

“Most importantly, he was utterly dominant all week. It was the best all-star showing I’d seen from an EDGE prospect since Myles Garrett in 2014. Anderson showed eye-popping speed-to-power, consistently walking top offensive tackles back to the quarterback. Nick Saban recently called Anderson a “dog-ass competitor.” We got a glimpse of that at the All-American Bowl. He was straight business and came to work. Everything was max effort, all the time. We came out of that week viewing him as the clear top EDGE prospect in the cycle. Anderson jumped all the way up to No. 5 overall in our final rankings and to be honest, he should’ve been higher.”

4. Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

“Anthony Richardson as draft prospect is very reminiscent to how he was a recruit – tantalizing physical upside with a need for more experience,” Power said. “Richardson separated himself as perhaps the most physically-gifted prospect in the cycle, measuring at 6-foot-4, 225 pounds with a 10.5-inch hand and running a 4.50 40. Coming out of his junior season, we wanted to see Richardson make a progression as an accurate, productive passer on Friday nights. He showed some encouraging signs of improvement at the Elite 11 and early on in his senior season.

“Richardson got off to a nice start, but missed the back half of the year with a shoulder injury. He was in a much less ideal situation at his high school when compared to some of his peers who played at power programs. We had Richardson earmarked as a potential riser, but didn’t feel like there was enough from his senior season to merit a big move. Looking back, we should’ve put more weight into his rare physical tools. Three years later, Richardson is still that mega physical talent who is an outlier due to his lack of viable experience.”

5. Seattle Seahawks (via Denver Broncos)

Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

“Devon Witherspoon wasn’t ranked as he didn’t become a viable FBS or Power 5 prospect until the summer before his freshman season,” Power said. “Witherspoon was already at Hutchinson Community College when he received a late SAT score that made him eligible. He enrolled at Illinois and the rest is history. Had he been a known qualifier, Witherspoon was a sure-fire high-end Power 5 talent. He was late to football, but was dominant in his two years at Pine Forest in Pensacola.

“The ball production was off the charts – he had 22 pass breakups and 11 interceptions in two seasons. In going back and watching his film, it’s clear he was an easy blue-chip talent. The instincts, toughness and athleticism were 4-star caliber – at the minimum. Witherspoon also had some strong athletic markers. He had a 6-7 best in the high jump and was a very good basketball player. I imagine he would’ve ended up at a top program had he played and been recruited out of junior college.”

6. Arizona Cardinals (via Detroit Lions)

Paris Johnson, OL, Ohio State

“Paris Johnson was identified as one of the top offensive linemen in the 2020 cycle coming off of his sophomore season at powerhouse St. Xavier in Cincinnati,” Power said. “We loved Johnson’s pure tools as an offensive tackle. He was close to 6-foot-6, 300 pounds with rare length. He moved really well at his size and posted one of the better shuttle times (4.53) from a top offensive linemen in the cycle.

“Johnson had a late growth spurt and grew into his body at a normal rate – he was not one of those offensive line prospects who was touted because he was just big or overweight early on. We were also encouraged by his toughness and ability as a run blocker. Johnson was really more developed in that area. He did have some trouble in pass protection against top pass rushers in neutral settings, but we saw the ability and upside to improve on that front with college coaching and more experience. Johnson finished as our top offensive tackle and as a top ten prospect in the cycle.”

7. Las Vegas Raiders

Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech

“Tyree Wilson was the epitome of a high-upside developmental EDGE prospect,” Power said. “The rare length and high-end athleticism were readily evident, particularly as a senior. Wilson made a jump in his final year at West Rusk High School, turning in a great final season. He was all over the field, teeing off on ball carriers behind the line of scrimmage. In addition to the palpable physical gifts, Wilson played with a high effort level, which especially showed up in pursuit.

“Even as his body continued to progress with added weight and strength, it was apparent Wilson needed more polish and work with his get-off (he still does). We saw him benefit from an increase in playing time after transferring to Texas Tech. Wilson fits the NFL prototype as a super long, athletic base end.”

8. Atlanta Falcons

Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

“Bijan Robinson wasn’t always the top-ranked running back in the cycle – but as fall rolled on, we felt like he was clearly the safest prospect at the position,” Power said. “Robinson was utterly dominant as a high school player. He finished his career as Arizona’s all-time leading rusher while averaging a preposterous 13.4 yards per carry for his career. The contact balance, pace and ability to maximize yardage were exceptional.

“Robinson also showed well as a pass-catcher on the 7-on-7 circuit and looked like the top running back all week at the All-American Bowl. We settled on Robinson as the No. 1 running back in the cycle and felt like he was the surest thing of that group.”

9. Philadelphia Eagles (via Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers)

Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

“Jalen Carter really started to take off as a prospect in the spring prior to his senior season,” Power said.
“He was primarily used as a H-back up to that point and was converting to the defensive line. There was a buzz about him and a bunch of college coaches showed up to his spring game. Carter more than lived up to the hype and quickly became a national prospect.

“After watching the spring video and digging into his athletic background (we learned that he was an above-the-rim basketball player), we opted to make him a five-star, in a move that some questioned at the time. It turned out to not be high enough.”

10. Chicago Bears (via Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints)

Darnell Wright, OL, Tennessee

“It’s not every day you see a five-star come from the state of West Virginia, but that was the case with Darnell Wright,” Power said. “He was an athletic and size projection. Wright was a big, coordinated athlete at around 6-foot-5.5 320 pounds. He fared well enough in camp and all-star settings to make us feel good about him being able to make the transition to the SEC. Wright was a dominant run blocker against the subpar competition and also made plays as a defensive lineman. He also was a state champion in the shot put.

“The competition level and fact he played in a flexbone offense made us think he may need a few years to adjust to the college game. Wright was also very young for the cycle with an August birthday –  he should’ve been a 2020 prospect and is actually younger than Paris Johnson and Broderick Jones. Though it took a few years, we saw Wright take off as a senior right tackle at Tennessee and make good on his high school ranking.”

11. Tennessee Titans

Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern

“Peter Skoronski was a personal favorite in the 2020 cycle,” Power said. “We thought he had the best film of any offensive lineman in the cycle and steadily moved him up the rankings. Skoronski was so technical with his footwork and understanding of body positioning. He had exceptionally strong hands and finishing ability. He also had a nice athletic profile with a shot put best over 57 feet. We didn’t get to see him in person until the All-American Bowl.

“He looked like one of the top offensive linemen in the country at that event, which served as the final box to check as we made him a five-star prospect – much higher than any other outlet. We weren’t surprised at all to see him come in and immediately start at Northwestern and quickly become one of the nation’s best offensive linemen.”

12. Detroit Lions (via Arizona Cardinals, Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns)

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama

“Jahmyr Gibbs was a huge senior riser. He entered his senior season as a high three-star,” Power recalled. “I remember getting texts from colleague Rusty Mansell who was at one of his first games that season. Gibbs had something like 400 yards and six touchdowns. He was staunchly on our radar after that game.

“He ended up having a monster season, more than doubling his production. We invited Gibbs to the All-American Bowl, where he looked better than expected, showing outstanding burst and good hands out of the backfield. He finished as a top 50 prospect for us.”

13. Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa

“Lukas Van Ness had solid film and looked to be a big, plus athlete. But to be honest, there was very little else by way of verifiable information at the time,” Power noted. “We didn’t have measurements or athletic indicators and his production was below average relative to most blue-chip EDGE prospects. It would’ve been great to have official measurements to better contextualize his frame and project the upside. Obviously Iowa had that information on Van Ness and continued to develop him into a first-round pick.”

14. Pittsburgh Steelers (via New England Patriots)

Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

“Broderick Jones oozed upside. He was not overly active on the camp circuit, so my first chance to see him in person came at the Under Armour All-America Game,” Power said. “Jones looked like the top offensive lineman prospect on hand. He was a lean, athletic and super long tackle who flashed some outstanding movement skills. Jones was less developed than most of the other top offensive tackles and is one who looked better in person than he did on film.

“We viewed him as a long-term physical and athletic projection who would need some development in college. That’s how it turned out – Jones really started to turn a corner in his final five or six games at Georgia.” 

15. New York Jets (via Green Bay Packers)

Will McDonald, DE, Iowa State

“In hindsight, Will McDonald IV had the type of profile we look for in high upside, developmental four-star prospects,” Power said. “McDonald was late to football but took off quickly. He had very good senior film and production. McDonald was a twitchy, loose athlete with noticeable length. He finished with 20 tackles for loss and 12 sacks as a senior.

“He was also a standout basketball player, averaging over 18 points and 12 rebounds per game. If that wasn’t enough, McDonald was great in track as well, with a 6-4 foot high jump and 47-1.25 foot shot put throw. It’s easy to see why he was such a steal and great player at Iowa State.”

16. Washington Commanders

Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State

“Emmanuel Forbes was a notable outlier for us in the 2020 cycle,” Power said. “We rated Forbes as a four-star during the summer prior to his senior season and continued to move him up that fall. Forbes was and still is very skinny – he was around 150 pounds as a recruit. But the ball skills and anticipatory instincts are as good as you’ll see from a high school corner prospect.

“Forbes was a complete ballhawk in high school, picking off 12 passes over his final two seasons. Though he was an outlier from a size perspective, the playmaking ability popped off the video. The cover instincts carried over to Mississippi State, where he set the FBS record for most career pick-sixes (six).”

17. New England Patriots (via Pittsburgh Steelers)

Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

“Christian Gonzalez was a late bloomer, which makes sense – he has a late birthday and was very young for the cycle,” Power said. “He had a strong senior year, with very strong ball production both as a receiver and corner. Gonzalez was a coordinated, smooth mover. He made a big jump athletically as a senior on the track (after rankings were finalized) turning in some strong times that were much better than the combine numbers he posted a year prior.

“His senior video could’ve given some hints, but it’s more a case of his late progression. Gonzalez also has great genes with his father being a former semi-pro basketball player and his sister an Olympic hurdler.”

18. Detroit Lions

Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa

“Jack Campbell was an absolute tackle machine in high school,” Power said. “He notched 168 stops as a senior, while showing high-end instincts. Though not overly long, Campbell had a big frame at over 6-foot-4, 220 pounds to go with his on-field skills. There wasn’t a ton of ancillary indicators, but he was a big, productive player. He was a four-star bump for us coming off of his senior season and has outplayed his ranking.”

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh

“Calijah Kancey really improved in his years at Pitt. Coming out of Miami Northwestern as a recruit, he was undersized at around 6-foot, 264 pounds with short arms and did not test as a top athlete in the combine setting,” Power said. “Kancey did look to be a better athlete on film than in camps and had a strong first step. He likely had more room to develop due to less resources and training early on relative to some of his peers. Pitt defensive line coach Charlie Partridge has made a living of identifying and developing three-stars into top picks and has done it again with Kancey.”

20. Seattle Seahawks

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

“Jaxon Smith-Njigba is one of the most technically skilled high school wide receiver prospects I’ve seen along with Calvin Ridley and a few others,” Power said. “He was a personal favorite in the 2020 cycle due to his elite route-running, eye-popping production and plus ball skills. He was unguardable on Friday nights, in camps and in all-star settings. Bottom line – I rarely saw him covered.

“He was the best wide receiver in the nation during the high school season, shredding 6A competition in Texas to the tune of 2,132 yards and 34 touchdowns. Smith-Njigba ran with outstanding body lean, making it tough for defensive backs to read his movements. There was exceptional pace within his routes and he had some of the most reliable hands we saw from any wide receiver in 2020. We came out of that cycle thinking Smith-Njigba had the highest floor of all the receivers and that turned out to be true. He was a safe bet as a five-star prospect.”

21. Los Angeles Chargers

Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU

“We were on Quentin Johnston early in the process,” Power said. “We moved him up significantly early on in large part due to his combination of size and explosive movement skills. Johnston was a twitched up, extremely bouncy athlete. We loved his multi-sport profile. He was one of the top dunkers in the 2020 cycle.

“On one of his visits to Texas (he was committed to the Longhorns), the staff had a dunk contest for the prospects and Johnston put on a show. He also was a state finalist in the high jump. We viewed Johnston as a high upside prospect who needed to continue developing the technical side of his game, particularly his routes and hands. That remains the case going into this draft.”

22. Baltimore Ravens

Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

“I didn’t closely evaluate Zay Flowers as a high school prospect but do remember some rumblings after the fact that Boston College may have signed a sleeper out of South Florida,” Power said. “Looking back at Flowers, he didn’t have a ton of notable indicators – he was and is undersized, had average production and didn’t have athletic markers to speak of. With that said, his film was strong. Flowers was a natural, fluid mover and was able to create separation against some talented secondaries. He also played bigger than he is at the catch point.”

23. Minnesota Vikings

Jordan Addison, WR, USC

“We were sky high on Jordan Addison (and the 2020 Pitt class in general) as the only outlet to rank him as a four-star prospect,” Power wrote. “The credit goes to former colleague and current Vanderbilt GM Barton Simmons. While Addison was clearly a top athlete (10.85 100m), Barton saw some things in his game early on that colleges or other analysts didn’t. Addison was not as easy of a projection at wide receiver as some others due to the fact he played all over the field for his high school – also lining up at quarterback and defensive back. Addison was an instant hit at Pitt, quickly taking off as a freshman and winning the Biletnikoff Award as a sophomore before transferring to USC for his final season.”

24. New York Giants (via Jacksonville Jaguars)

Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

“Though he had the highest three-star rating, Deonte Banks’ size, speed and on-field production should’ve made him a four-star prospect in hindsight,” Power said. “Banks was a dominant running back, rushing for 1,700 yards at 15 yards per carry and ran sub 11.0 seconds in the 100 meters at 190 pounds. He was not playing great competition and was not at a top high school program, which may have caused him to fly under the radar a bit. Regardless, the positive indicators were there and he’s hit on his athletic upside.”

25. Buffalo Bills (via Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Giants)

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

“Tight end is a position where many players take unconventional paths to becoming top picks,” Power said. “That’s the case here. Kincaid was a basketball-first athlete, both for his high school and on the AAU circuit. He came out for football as a senior and showed some promise as a 6-foot-3.5, 200 pound receiver. He signed with University of San Diego, a non-scholarship FCS program before transferring to Utah after a few years. Of course, Kincaid became one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the nation while in Salt Lake City.”

26. Dallas Cowboys

Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan

“I never got to see Mazi Smith in person, but he had some positive indicators that made him a blue-chip prospect for us,” Power said. “Smith was active and disruptive on film. The athleticism and movement skills were apparent as he made some explosive plays behind the line of scrimmage. When you look more into Smith’s background, he was a very good track athlete with strong shot put marks and young for the class with a late birthday.”

27. Jacksonville Jaguars (via Buffalo Bills)

Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma

“Anton Harrison was a naturally coordinated and aggressive offensive tackle who needed some development,” Power said. “He certainly looked to be more athletic in games than in combine settings. Harrison had good senior film and was solid at Under Armour. In hindsight, we were probably too harsh on his underclassman camp showings, but still ranked him as a four-star.”

28. Cincinnati Bengals

Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson

“I first saw Myles Murphy at The Opening’s Atlanta regional in the spring prior to his senior season. Murphy looked like the top prospect at that loaded event,” Power said. “He tested really well, running a 4.65 40 at around 6-foot-5, 265 pounds. Murphy also showed a great first step in drills and 1-on-1’s. We made him a five-star prospect after that event and he remained one of the top defensive prospects for the majority of the cycle. Murphy is a strong linear athlete with prototypical physical tools. Though he got passed by Will Anderson as the top EDGE due to the senior season and all-star evaluations, he’s made good on that five-star rating.”

29. New Orleans Saints (via San Francisco 49ers)

Bryan Bresee, DL, Clemson

“Bryan Bresee was the initial top prospect in the cycle and held on to the No. 1 spot until the final ranking, with Bryce Young taking over,” Power said. “Bresee was physically advanced early on and turned in dominant seasons as an underclassman buoyed by outstanding camp showings over the course of several years. He was running in the 4.8’s at 6-foot-5, 290 pounds. Bresee was an ultra competitive and confident prospect with a high competitive drive. He typically owned offensive linemen in the camp and all-star settings.

“The size and athleticism were paired with advanced technical skills. He was stringing together some high-level pass rush moves and could line up at any spot along the front. In tracking his progression over the past few years, it’s evident Bresee was more physically developed as a high school prospect and thus had a lower upside than some of his five-star peers. He’s essentially the same size and athlete as he was coming out of high school. Bresee also dealt with some injuries at Clemson and that could’ve affected things as well. Even then, he still ended up as a first round pick.”

30. Philadelphia Eagles

Nolan Smith, LB, Georgia

“Nolan Smith was identified as a top prospect early on as a two-way star at Calvary Day in Savannah prior to transferring to IMG Academy for his final two seasons,” Power said. “Smith tested off the charts in multiple combine settings, running in the 4.5’s and jumping over 40 inches in the vertical. Along with the athleticism, Smith was a high effort player who was not afraid to get physical and throw his body around despite his lack of size.

“I remember measuring Smith at the All-American Bowl check-in that year and being a little surprised at his smaller frame at around 6-foot-2.5, 225 pounds. He’s made the most of his physical skills and can use his athleticism as a pass rush specialist.”

31. Kansas City Chiefs

Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas State

“Anudike-Uzomah was far off the radar as a high school prospect,” Power said. “He was originally committed to FCS powerhouse North Dakota State, but was reportedly dropped by the Bison. He was later signed as a blue shirt for Kansas State. Anudike-Uzomah was smaller as a high school prospect, being listed at around 215 pounds and there were some questions as to how much weight he could hold. Still, he had positive markers with good film and track athleticism (46+ foot triple jump).”