College Football Playoff: Projecting 12-team bracket after week 8

When I projected this season’s College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six bowls on Sunday, a contract forced me to change my choices. That won’t happen anymore when the CFP expands to 12 teams.

Here’s what happened. I projected ACC champion Florida State as the No. 3 seed, which meant I had to choose another ACC team to play in the Orange Bowl because the ACC has a contract with the Orange Bowl. So I had to include North Carolina, which had just lost to Virginia. It’s entirely possible the Tar Heels are great the rest of the way and land in one of these games on their own merit, but losing to Virginia did not instill confidence. I would rather have given that spot to someone else — probably Utah.

In the 12-team CFP, we don’t have to worry about putting an ACC team in the Orange Bowl or an SEC team in the Sugar. I suspect that the selection committee may try to respect those traditional conference affiliations when it can, but the seeding will matter most. So as I project what the 12-team playoff would look like if it started this year, I won’t worry about which conferences get into which bowls.

I also won’t be predicting Penn State to win the Big Ten anymore. I apologize for months of that prediction. The Nittany Lions showed against Ohio State that they are not good enough on offense to compete at that level. As in previous weeks, this projection will use the current plan for the 12-team CFP (six automatic berths for highest ranked conference champs, six at-larges) and the current conference alignment. Also, I’m using the Rose and the Sugar bowls as the semifinals since those are the semifinal games this season.

1. Georgia (SEC champ)
2. Michigan (Big Ten champ)
3. Florida State (ACC champ)
4. Oklahoma (Big 12 champ)
5. Ohio State (At-large)
6. Washington  (Pac-12 champ)
7. Texas (At-large)
8. Alabama (At-large)
9. Oregon (At-large)
10. Utah (At-large)
11. Penn State (At-large)
12. Air Force (Mountain West champ)

Playoff bracket matchups

No. 12 Air Force at No. 5 Ohio State
***Winner plays No. 4 Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 Washington
***Winner plays No. 3 Florida State in the Cotton Bowl

No. 10 Utah at No. 7 Texas
***Winner plays No. 2 Michigan in the Orange Bowl

No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Alabama
***Winner plays No. 1 Georgia in the Peach Bowl