Heather Dinich explains why 'Alabama can afford to lose more than Georgia' in top-five matchup
There will be conference and national stakes on the line tomorrow night in Tuscaloosa between No. 2 Georgia and No. 4 Alabama. So, with that, who between them can better manage a loss this weekend?
On ‘Get Up’ on Friday, Heather Dinich said ‘Bama can as opposed to the Bulldogs. That’s because of what they still have left on their schedule from here in comparison. That’s specifically so with who their two remaining games on the road are against.
“Alabama can afford to lose more than Georgia,” Dinich stated. “Here’s why. If Georgia loses, it still has to go on the road to Austin to play Texas, on the road to play Ole Miss. ESPN Analytics projects that it will lose both of those games.”
For reference on these road games, Georgia has a 34.2% chance to win against the Crimson Tide, a 27.5% chance to win versus the Longhorns, and a 42.8% chance to win over the Rebels per ESPN Analytics. That’s not including a toss-up between them and Tennessee as well.
Per On3’s Massey Ratings, the ‘Dawgs have a 44% chance in Tuscaloosa. They then have a 52% chance in Austin and a 62% chance in Oxford.
As for Alabama, ESPN Analytics as well as On3’s Massey Ratings have them winning all five of their ranked games currently left on the schedule, including tomorrow over UGA.
With that, Georgia is looking at a slate where their first regular-season loss in almost four years is coming somewhere. However, taking it at Alabama on Saturday could mean that they have multiple. At that point, that record would certainly affect their standing for the postseason.
“That’s not to say a three-loss team can’t get into the 12-team field as an at-large bid but here’s what’s at stake. If you don’t win your conference championship then you don’t get a first-round bye. Teams five through eight have the opportunity to host a first-round game on campus,” explained Dinich. “If you’re a three-loss team, you’re on the bubble.”
Georgia has won as much as anyone over this decade with them still being one of the top contenders in the SEC and for the CFP. Still, a loss tomorrow could be the first thing that sets them up for less success this year.