Iowa Baseball Preview - at Northwestern

WEEKEND SERIES: AT NORTHWESTERN (8-38)

The Iowa Baseball team is coming off a huge three-game sweep of the Michigan State Spartans last week. The offense continued to put up runs, despite the absence of Keaton Anthony, while the pitching staff held the Big Ten’s top offense to just seven runs. Up next, it is the regular season finale series in Evanston against the Northwestern Wildcats.

Northwestern comes into the final week of the season with a 9-38 record, including a 3-18 record in Big Ten play. They have been swept in five straight Big Ten series, but they were in every game with Indiana and just defeated Notre Dame in a midweek matchup. The ‘Cats #262 RPI makes the series a dangerous one for the Hawkeyes. Northwestern is 0-10 against Quad 1 opponents this season.

“I played Coach Foster’s team when he was at Army…knowing what I saw when we saw that Army team, I know 100% you’re not going to go over there and play a team that’s given up or quit. They’re going to come out and play as hard as they can,” said head coach Rick Heller. “We’re going to have to plan, prepare, execute and do the best we can to play as well as we can. If not, we’ll probably get beat and that’s just how baseball is.”

THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 8.1 runs (28th), 9.9 hits (91st), .299 AVG (50th) NW: 5.3 runs (267th), 8.6 hits (242th), .250 AVG (273rd)

PITCHING: IOWA: 4.8 runs (21st), 6.9 hits (2nd), 11.1 SO/9 (6th) NW: 9.0 runs (284th), 11.0 hits (277th), 7.8 SO/9 (209th)

DEFENSE: IOWA: 37 errors, .978 fielding percentage (30th) NW: 55 errors, .967 fielding percentage (184th)

IOWA PROJECTED STARTING PITCHERS

FRIDAY – Soph RHP Marcus Morgan – Marcus has gone 5.0+ innings in five of his last six starts after none of his first five starts went past 4.1 innings. He was taken out of the starting rotation for two weeks in the middle of the season and since his return, he has arguably been the Hawkeyes best starter, Outside of a disaster at Penn State, Morgan has a 1.33 ERA since May 1st. He is holding opponents to a .243 average on balls in play.

SATURDAY – Jr RHP Ty Langenberg – Ty had to battle through some traffic on the bases last weekend, but he has really turned a corner as of late. Over his last three starts, Langenberg has allowed six runs over 18.1 innings (2.95 ERA), as well as 19 strikeouts to eight walks. He has thrown 182 of his 292 (62.3%) pitches for strikes over his last four outings.

SUNDAY- Soph RHP Brody Brecht – What a boost it would be for the Hawkeyes if Brody Brecht got back to his normal self right before the postseason. Sunday was a positive step in the right direction, as he allowed one run on one hit with eight strikeouts over 6.0 innings. After throwing just 48.3% of his pitches for strikes over a four week stretch, Brody threw 58.1% of his 94 pitches for strikes against Michigan State. He will be looking to build on that performance this week with the postseason on the horizon.

NORTHWESTERN POTENTIAL STARTING PITCHERS

Coach Jim Foster did not announce a starting rotation for the weekend, so we look at who started in their series last week against Michigan. On paper, the Hawkeyes should be able to put up runs against a Northwestern staff that allows 1.28 hits per inning and has an 8.64 ERA.

Fr LHP Sam Garewal – The true freshman out of San Diego has made seven starts this season, including each of the last three weeks. He has gone at least 5.0 innings in those starts and allowed just two runs over 11.2 innings against Indiana and Michigan. Garewal has a 5.93 ERA over 44.0 innings, but has walked just 19 on the year. Over his last three starts, he has struck out 21 and walked just three. He is allowing opponents to hit .331 on balls in play, which is the way the Hawkeyes will likely have to put up runs.

GSr RHP Michael Farinelli – Farinelli has made 12 starts this season with a 9.12 ERA over 49.1 innings. He leads the team with an impressively low 5.0% walk rate, but teams have been able to hit him around. He is allowing 1.34 hits per inning on the year and has allowed 40 hits over his last 23.2 innings. A surging Iowa offense should be able to take advantage of Farinelli.

Jr RHP Luke Benneche – Benneche has made eight starts this season with an 11.85 ERA over 41.0 innings. He is allowing 1.63 hits per inning and his walk rate is a bit higher than the other starter options. Even worse, 52.2% of his hits allowed have gone for extra bases and opponents are hitting .414 on ball in play.

WILDCATS PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. OF Stephen Hrustich- The most dangerous bat in the Northwestern lineup, Hrustich leads the team with a .331 average and a .448 on-base percentage. He has 12 doubles, six home runs and leads the team with 35 walks/hbp. Hrustich has been particularly hot as of late, hitting 9/17 (.529) with five extra base hits over his last four games.

2. CF Griffin Arnone- The top home run hitter in the lineup, Arnone has just a .234 average, but has nine doubles and eight home runs. He is prone to striking out, as he leads the team with 53 strikeouts and has a 31.9% strikeout rate.

3. DH Alex Calarco- The brother of former Wildcat Anthony Calarco, Alex has had a successful season. He is batting .277 on the year with a team-leading 18 doubles, as well as three home runs. Calarco is going to swing the bat, as he owns just an 8.0% walk rate. He has 13 multi-hit games this season.

4. 1B Bennett Markinson- Markinson has started just 26 of 47 games this season, but has picked up his hitting over the last month. He is second the team with a .288 average, but is 17/54 (.315) over his last 13 games. Markinson is first on the team with a 10.1% strikeout rate.

FINAL THOUGHT

Set the over/under for the weekend at 2.5 wins. The Wildcats have derailed Iowa seasons in the past and, once again, they show up on the schedule late in the season. A series loss in Evanston back in 2021 knocked the Hawkeyes out of the NCAA hunt. IT would probably take a couple of losses to really cause trouble, but Rocky Miller Park is a weird place to play.

If Iowa can continue to play at a high level, they will be in a good spot. Northwestern doesn’t have the offense to compete with the Hawkeyes pitching when it’s clicking and they don’t have pitching to beat the Iowa offense when it’s going good. Still, it will be three tricky games for the Hawkeyes before they head to Omaha for the Big Ten Tournament.

First pitch on Thursday and Friday will come at 4:00pm. The series finale on Saturday will come at 1:00pm. All three games will be streamed on BTN+.