Is NIL spreading elite talent to more schools? Yes — for now

When Texas A&M landed the No. 1 overall class in last year’s cycle, much of the conversation — and controversy — centered around the Aggies’ use of name, image and likeness (NIL) to bring in such an historic class after otherwise never coming close to a talent haul like that.

The Aggies knocked off the likes of Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and Clemson as the dominant programs in college football recruiting. By the time the cycle closed this spring, they had amassed the highest-rated class ever in the On3 Consensus Team Recruiting Rankings.

The group it pushed off the pedestal was Alabama’s class in 2021, which featured 11 of the top 50 players in the class. A&M’s featured only 10, but nine of them were five-star prospects. Georgia, which brought in nine five-stars of its own in the 2018 cycle, is the only program to come close to that number in the past decade.

Since then, accusations have been lobbed at A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher, who has vehemently denied that the Aggies “bought” their class. Interestingly enough, that sort of recruiting tour de force was exactly the opposite of what many predicted would happen with NIL. Instead, the argument went more schools would have access to elite recruits because now things were being done above-board.

As the first full recruiting cycle with NIL laws in effect hits its halfway point, that trend seems to be playing out — for now.

More teams adding top-tier talent in 2023

According to On3’s analysis of the 2019-2023 recruiting classes, this cycle could feature some of the most talent spread between top-tier programs that we’ve seen in recent memory. With the first week of July in the books, recruiting’s big four (Alabama, Clemson, Georgia and Ohio State) have a combined nine top-50 recruits committed. Add in Texas A&M, and the number slides up to 10. But that’s barely over one-third of the 27 prospects in that range who are already committed.

For reference, the big four (plus Texas A&M) combined to land 31 of the top 50 in 2022; 27 in 2021; 25 in 2020; and 20 in 2019. Could we be seeing a slight reversal in the heavy concentration of elite talent? Maybe.

Alabama and Georgia, winners of the last two CFP national championships, have been the constants at the top of recruiting in over the past half decade. Of the 200 top-50 prospects in the On3 Consensus in the past four cycles, 58 have signed with the Crimson Tide or Bulldogs. If you expand that to include the Buckeyes, Tigers and Aggies, 107 of those 200 prospects (53.5 percent) have signed with five programs.

Early returns show even distribution

Midway through this cycle, though, that kind of saturation isn’t happening. Ohio State (4), Texas, USC, and Miami (three each) lead the way with the most top-50 prospects currently committed.

Alabama has a pair of five-stars committed in defensive backs Jahlil Hurley and Tony Mitchell, but did get beat out by Clemson for five-star in-state defensive lineman Peter Woods.

The No. 1 overall prospect in the class, Five-Star Plus+ QB Arch Manning, spurned Georgia and Alabama for Texas. And Miami, which has seen a massive recruiting turnaround under Mario Cristobal, recently landed five-star offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa, and coveted four-stars Jayden Wayne and Jaden Rashada.

“Name, image and likeness is a significant factor in this cycle,” said On3 Director of Recruiting Chad Simmons. “When you see some of the reported deals out there, it’s obvious that other schools are able to be very competitive from that standpoint. Just selling player development, team culture and winning games isn’t cutting it anymore for some prospects and their families. The dominant programs are going to get theirs. But this has introduced a new wrinkle they still have to adjust to.”

Notable other names in this year’s class have spurned traditional powers for other schools. The nation’s No. 4 prospect, Long Beach (Calif.) Poly QB Nico Iamaleava, spurned Alabama, Georgia and others for Tennessee. Five-star offensive tackle Kadyn Proctor chose in-state Iowa over the Crimson Tide. And El Campo (Texas) running back Rueben Owens, a borderline five-star as well, committed to Louisville over Texas and Texas A&M.

Whether NIL was a factor for all of them is unknown, but these recruitments are a significant data point.

Footing is shifting under elite programs

That said, it’s still too early to hit the panic button if you’re Nick Saban, Kirby Smart, or Ryan Day. Each of their programs still sits inside the top six of the On3 Team Rankings, and they’re in contention for some of the country’s best uncommitted prospects. Alabama is among the top schools for nine top-50 prospects, according to the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine, while Georgia (6) and Ohio State (3) battle for others.

They’re no doubt aware of the changing tides, though. In early June, Day told a group of Ohio State boosters that the Buckeyes needed $13 million to be competitive in the NIL space.

Recruiters across the country echoed that sentiment to On3’s Jeremy Crabtree.

“If you want to land some of the best of the best, it’s going to take millions of dollars,” one SEC staffer said. “That’s a fact. It pains me that we’re even talking about this. But in the SEC, that $13 million figure is spot on. Heck, it’s probably too low.”

Added a Pac-12 recruiter: “It’s all dictated by the quarterback. We’re finding out it’s taking at least $1.5 million, but maybe even $2 or $2.5 million for the best quarterbacks. They might not have their hands out, but many in their circle do.”

In May, prior to taking a blowtorch to his relationship with Fisher, a former assistant of his, Saban expressed concern about Alabama’s ability to compete for recruits in the current landscape — unless they invested in NIL.

“I don’t want to go down that road of bidding for players out of high school. I don’t,” Saban said. “But if we go through this recruiting class this year and we lose all the players, because they’re making a hundred thousand dollars going someplace else, then what can you do?”

Quarterbacks at the forefront of NIL talent proliferation

Potentially the most interesting stat is this: None of the top seven quarterbacks this cycle are committed to those three programs (Ohio State, Georgia, or Alabama), the first time that has happened since 2012.

Instead, the likes of Texas, USC, Tennessee and Oregon have gobbled up with the five-star passers, with Miami, Clemson and Oklahoma taking Nos. 5-7 in the On3 Consensus rankings. Those are far from middling programs, but at least in this cycle, top throwers are eschewing the blue bloods for other options.

How much of that is related to NIL? It depends who you ask. But the reported agreements that the likes of Nico Iamaleava and Rashada have come to with collectives tied to the programs they committed to insists the money plays no small part. Iamaleava is rumored to be the quarterback mentioned in an article from The Athletic earlier this spring about a prospect who garnered an $8 million deal. Rashada, meanwhile, received a $9.5 million deal from Miami mega-donor John Ruiz, multiple sources told On3.

Recent five-star Oregon commit Dante Moore said in no uncertain terms that NIL didn’t drive him to the Ducks, but did mention after his commitment that he was “grateful for NIL” to cover his family’s trips to and from Eugene from their home in Detroit.

The recruiting cycle is just beginning to heat up

The proof will ultimately be in the pudding come December — and to a smaller degree, February. Based on recent data, more than 500 decommitments are expected in the next six months. Much of that falls outside the elite prospects, but it is a certainty that some big names will switch their allegiances before ink hits paper.

On top of that, the 2023 player rankings are far from complete. There will be overhauls to end the summer, plus the extremely important in-season and All-American game evaluations to come.

In last year’s class, five of the top 10 prospects in the final On3 Consensus rankings decommitted from one school and flipped to another. Among quarterbacks, two of the top 10 changed their final destination between summer and signing day. And five-star passer Devin Brown, among others, saw his ranking skyrocket after a fantastic senior season. Expect similar rises from other prospects over the next six months.

More than anything, fortunes can change quickly in recruiting, for better and worse. A little more than six months after finalizing their historic class, Texas A&M has just one top-50 commitment this cycle. Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State, while still putting together top-tier classes, aren’t dominating the cycle as they have in years past.

And yet, it would be an utter shock to not see them back at their perch among the top three or four programs when the dust settles. The only real question is how close everyone else is — and continues to get — to chipping away the throne.