Justin Herbert forecasts as Chargers’ most improved player

After an impressive rookie season for Justin Herbert, analysts project the Los Angles Chargers’ second-year quarterback will take big steps forward this season. NFL Network’s Cynthia Frelund used forward-looking analytics to forecast the 2020 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year as the Chargers’ most improved player entering the season.

Herbert’s rookie performance

Los Angeles took Herbert with the sixth-overall selection in the 2020 NFL Draft. The Eugene, Oregon-native started at least eight games in each of his four seasons for the Oregon Ducks, a career which culminated in 3,471 yards, 32 touchdowns and five interceptions his senior year. 

Herbert took the field in Los Angeles earlier than expected last season after a team doctor punctured veteran Tyrod Taylor’s lung just before their Week 2 game. Herbert stepped in and finished with 4,336 passing yards, 31 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. His total passing yardage was sixth-best in the NFL and the most among rookies by more than 1,600 yards.

As Frelund cites, Herbert led the league with 1,113 passing yards and nine touchdowns while under pressure. 

“Herbert’s ability to produce under pressure is a strong signal for this season’s potential, and drives his value as QB11 right now,” Frelund said.

Chargers’ offseason changes

The most notable difference from last year is that Herbert will not be preparing to join a new team during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Last season, Herbert had to learn the offense remotely until training camp started. 

Of course, there is no substitute for the OTAs and minicamps that Herbert would have attended last year had he not been drafted in the middle of a pandemic.

Herbert will also have a new head coach in former Chargers’ defensive coordinator Brandon Staley and new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. Lombardi arrives after coaching former Chargers and New Orleans Saints’ quarterback Drew Brees for a total of 12 seasons as both an offensive analyst and quarterbacks coach. 

Brees, now an analyst for NBC’s Sunday Night Football, has lauded Herbert’s skills as well.

“I don’t think I’ve seen an athlete quite like him,” Brees told NBC’s Mike Tirico. “His forearms and hands look like he has been digging fence-post holes his entire life. He is good, smart and has those leadership qualities.”

Herbert will also be working behind a much improved offensive line. The Chargers used their first-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft on Northwestern offensive tackle Rashawn Slater. Additionally, Corey Linsley is now the highest-paid center in NFL history, and Los Angeles acquired Oday Aboushi and Matt Feiler from Detroit and Pittsburgh, respectively. 

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