NFL comparisons for 2023 On3 5-stars

On3 released its updated football prospect rankings for the 2023 cycle earlier this week. The ranking marks one of the more extensive overhauls over the course of the recruiting cycle. The update includes 14 prospects who rank as five-stars, including four new additions.

Updated 2023 On300

Formulating player comparisons is a fun and challenging exercise that tests the mental rolodex of former top recruits and current NFL players. It can be informative for both fans and us as analysts. It is important to note that these comparisons are stylistic in nature and not career projections. Many variables are at play when projecting a career arc in addition to the impossible odds that every top-rated prospect ends up maximizing their potential. We also have several months remaining in the cycle which includes off-season events, the all-important senior season and all-star circuit. That’s to say these rankings and comparisons will invariably change.

With that said, let’s get into the current comparisons for On3’s 2023 five-star prospects.

1. QB Arch Manning

Comparison: Andrew Luck (Stanford, Indianapolis Colts)
The Reasoning: While Arch Manning is often compared and contrasted with his Hall of Fame uncles, we’ve seen the similarities with another former Indianapolis Colt dating back to last summer. Manning is a similar size to Luck coming out of high school, if not a touch heavier at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds. The play styles at the high school level are also similar. Both are accurate passers who excel in working from inside the structure of an offense. Luck’s high school team was not loaded with talent and he was often forced to make individual plays outside of the pocket. The same can be said for Manning. While both fit the in-structure, pocket passer prototype, they’re both good athletes who can pick up yards with their legs and run with physicality. Luck ran for over 2,000 yards in his high school career and was probably a bit further along in that regard than Manning. Conversely, Manning has a quicker release than Luck.

Alabama, Texas, Georgia and Ole Miss are among those in contention for Manning’s commitment.

2. QB Malachi Nelson, USC commit

Comparison: Marcus Mariota (Oregon, Tennessee Titans, Las Vegas Raiders)
The Reasoning: Mariota was not as highly-touted as  Malachi Nelson coming out of high school, but we see similarities in the body type, physical skill set and play style. For starters, Nelson’s build at 6-foot-3, 175 pounds is not too far off from Mariota’s (6-foot-3.5, 185) at the same stage. Both are accurate passers who are adept at running up-tempo offenses and excel in playing quarterback with a point guard mentality. Nelson is more polished at the same stage and actually bears resemblance to Bryce Young mechanically (they’ve worked with the same quarterback trainers), but has not yet shown the level of feel as Young, who plays with a sixth sense awareness. Mariota was more of a run threat than Nelson, but that’s more so due to offensive design than physical ability. Nelson has shown he’s more than capable of picking up yards with his legs and has a nice burst in the open field.

3. Keon Keeley, Notre Dame commit

Comparison: Kayvon Thibodeaux (Oregon, 2022 NFL Draft)
The Reasoning: Keon Keeley ranks as the top non-quarterback in the On300 and reminds us of the On3 Consensus’ No. 2 prospect in the 2019 cycle. We see some similarities in the builds, length, on-field athleticism and ability to bend. Thibodeaux was a highly productive and well-established prospect coming out of Thousand Oaks (Calif.) Oaks Christian. He had the best production profile of pass rushers in the 2019 cycle and turned in 28 tackles for loss with 20 sacks as a junior. Keeley’s numbers are similar – the Tampa Berkeley Prep star had 34 tackles for loss and 16. 5 sacks last fall. Thibodeaux’s ability to dip and bend also separated himself among his peers as a high school prospect. We see the same from Keeley at this stage. Keeley’s curvilinear movement, along with his 6-foot-6, 230-pound frame and elite production make him an obvious five-star in our opinion.

4. CB Cormani McClain

Comparison: Ahmad Gardner (Cincinnati, 2022 NFL Draft)
The Reasoning: Pinning down a good comparison for Cormani McClain was among the more difficult calls. The 6-foot-1.5, 165-pounder is a ball hawk with outstanding ball production at corner in addition to making plays as a receiver. He does not run track like many other top corners, but has shown top-shelf athleticism in the combine setting. It’s not perfect (none of these are), but we landed on projected first-rounder Ahmad Gardner due to the stature and ball skills. McClain had 14 pass breakups and six interceptions as a junior at Lakeland (Fla.) Lake Gibson, while also chipping in 447 yards and four scores as a receiver. Gardner was a productive two-way player at Detroit Martin Luther King with a very similar build to McClain. The primary difference between the two at the same stage is top-end speed. Gardner ran a verified 4.74 prior to his junior season and looks to have improved in that department while at Cincinnati. McClain already runs a good bit faster.

Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Florida State and Miami are among the schools after McClain.

5. QB Nico Iamaleava

Comparison: Justin Herbert (Oregon, Los Angeles Chargers)
The Reasoning: Nico Iamaleava has some of the more impressive raw physical tools we’ve seen from a quarterback over the last few cycles. The 6-foot-6, 200-pounder has a huge arm with the ability to drive the ball to multiple levels with ease. He’s also a bouncy, light-footed athlete and doubles as a top volleyball player. Herbert didn’t have the recruiting pedigree of Iamaleava, but was (and still is) a high-upside physical talent. Taller quarterbacks can tend to struggle with movement skills or longer throwing motions, but that doesn’t appear to be the case with Iamaleava. To be honest, his throwing motion is not dissimilar from Trevor Lawrence‘s, but we stop short of making that comparison as the two have very different career arcs at the high school level. Lawrence was much more polished and productive at the same stage as the No. 1 prospect in the 2018 cycle.

Oregon, Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee are among the schools in the mix for Iamaleava.

6. EDGE Nyckoles Harbor

Comparison: Odafe Oweh (Penn State, Baltimore Ravens)
The Reasoning: Nyckoles Harbor is the rarest jumbo athlete I’ve seen as a high school recruit. He is one of the nation’s top sprinters with Olympic aspirations at 6-foot-5, 235 pounds. Harbor has nation’s fastest time in the 200 meters (20.79) so far this year. Oweh is the closest recent comparison we could pinpoint. The former Penn State pass rusher wowed at his pro day last spring, running a 4.37 second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-5, 257 pounds. Both Harbor and Oweh are elite athletes and developmental pass rushers with high ceilings due to the physical ability.

Harbor has a bevy of offers from Power Five programs including tenders from Maryland, Alabama, Penn State, Oklahoma and many others.

7. OT Charles Jagusah

Comparison: Tristan Wirfs (Iowa, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
The Reasoning: Charles Jagusah‘s physical dimensions, fluidity and multi-sport background reminds us of Wirfs. Both also come from similar geographic areas – Jagusah lives on the Illinois and Iowa border in Rock Island, Illinois. Wirfs is from Mount Vernon, Iowa, just 73 minutes west of Rock Island. We see many similarities between the two as high school players. Jagusah plays on both sides of the ball as an offensive and defensive lineman, as Wirfs did. The coordination, balance and smooth movement patterns are also similar. The frame and length are close, as well. Like Wirfs, Jagusah is a dominant high school wrestler who cuts weight from the 300 pound range to get under the 285 pound limit for heavyweights. The 2023 prospect is one of the top wrestlers in the Midwest, recently finishing a 41-0 season on the mat. Wirfs had one of the best multi-sport profiles we’ve seen in recent years, winning a combined six state titles in wrestling and track and field.

Notre Dame currently leads in Jagusah’s On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine.

8. EDGE Qua Russaw

Comparison: Kwity Paye (Michigan, Indianapolis Colts)
The Reasoning: Qua Russaw is a rugged, high-energy edge defender with outstanding play speed, particularly in pursuit. The Montgomery (Ala.) Carver standout is a similar size (6-foot-3, 230 pounds) and looks to be a comparable on-field athlete to Kwity Paye at the same stage. There are differences in the high school circumstances. Russaw is much more productive as a prep defender, with 27.5 tackles for loss and 16 sacks as a junior. Paye doubled as a running back at Warwick (R.I.) Bishop Hendrickson and had strong verified athleticism (4.75 40-yard dash and 11.0 second 100 meter time). The comparison is more tied to the type of player and ultimately NFL Draft prospect that Paye became at Michigan.

On the recruiting front, Russaw attended games at Alabama and Georgia in the fall and returned to each campus for a junior day in January.

9. WR Zachariah Branch, USC commit

Comparison: Jaylen Waddle (Alabama, Miami Dolphins)
The Reasoning: We’ve been drawing the comparison between Zachariah Branch and Jaylen Waddle for several months. Of this group of comparisons, it could be the most uncanny. Both were the most dynamic open-field player in their respective recruiting cycles and have similar size at the same stage (around 5-foot-9.5 170 pounds). The similarity in on-field skill sets borders on eerie. Branch’s ability to change direction and quickly gear down, cut and burst in rapid succession remind us of Waddle. Both also are more than just space players and have considerable top end speed as deep threats with well above average ball skills. Branch’s speed on the track is even better than Waddle’s. The Las Vegas Bishop Gorman product was the top track athlete in the state of Nevada as a sophomore, ripping off a 10.33 100-meter dash and posting a long jump over 24 feet.

10. DL James Smith

Comparison: Jeffery Simmons (Mississippi State, Tennessee Titans)
The Reasoning: James Smith is a heavy-handed, violent defender with a plus first step. We’ve seen Simmons develop into that kind of defensive tackle while at Mississippi State and with the Tennessee Titans. Like Simmons, Smith has natural brute strength on the interior along with the athleticism to create disruption on passing downs. Both also play with a highly physical edge. Smith is a good bit heavier than Simmons was at the same stage. The rising senior is around 300 pounds, while Simmons was 262 pounds entering his senior year at Macon (Miss.) Noxubee County before filling out to 305 pounds at Mississippi State.

Smith is teammates with fellow five-star Qua Russaw, and has joined on recent visits to Alabama and Georgia.

11. IOL Jven Williams, Penn State commit

Comparison: Ikem Ekwonu (NC State, 2022 NFL Draft)
The Reasoning: Jven Williams is a high-upside offensive lineman with some of the better athletic markers in what is a strong cycle at the position. The Reading (Pa.) Wyomissing product is an easy mover at the second level and excels as a run blocker. Williams is over 6-foot-4 and 290 pounds with plus length. He’s young for the class and is one of the top track and field athletes in Pennsylvania with a 59 foot shot put toss in addition to a state title in the discus. Ikem Ekwonu was a similar late-blooming, versatile offensive lineman out of the 2019 cycle. Ekwonu’s size was exactly the same as Williams’ (down to one pound). He had a sterling multi-sport profile as a state champion wrestler along with a shot put throw close to 50 feet. Ekwonu also played on both sides of the ball, doubling as a defensive tackle, like Williams. We’ve since seen Ekwonu develop into the best run-blocking tackle in college football and future first-round pick at NC State.

12. WR Shelton Sampson Jr.

Comparison: DeVante Parker (Louisville, Miami Dolphins)
The Reasoning: Shelton Sampson Jr. has the best combination of size, speed and catch radius we’ve seen among receivers in the 2023 cycle thus far. The 6-foot-4, 180-pounder has sub 4.4 speed and is able to consistently win in contested situations. There are not many receivers with his physical profile and skill set that have been high picks in recent years, but we do see some similarities with DeVante Parker. Sampson is in a run-heavy offense at Baton Rouge Catholic but has proven to be a big play threat when targeted. Parker had an elite production profile at Ballard High in Louisville, with 1,793 yards and 19 touchdowns as a senior. The first-round pick was also good sprinter at the high school level before eventually running a 4.45 at the NFL Combine. Some of Sampson’s projection will hinge on how he physically develops over the course of the next year, as he’s younger for the class and has room for continued growth.

In-state LSU currently leads in Sampson’s On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine. He’s also visited Alabama and Texas A&M.

13. S Caleb Downs

Comparison: Vonn Bell (Ohio State, New Orleans Saints, Cincinnati Bengals)
The Reasoning: Caleb Downs is a very well-rounded safety prospect. He’s technically-refined with advanced defensive back skills. Downs has been one of the best high school football players in the state of Georgia over the last two seasons at Hoschton (Ga.) Mill Creek. The 5-foot-11, 185-pounder can cover hash to boundary, has outstanding instincts and plays with physicality. We also see Downs make plays from multiple positions on offense. Vonn Bell was a five-star safety out of Rossville (Ga.) Ridgeland in the 2013 cycle. Downs has similar size and skills to what we saw from Bell at the time. Bell was a dominant multi-phase high school player who went on to win a national title with Ohio State before becoming a second round pick. Downs may be a bit more polished at the same stage.

Georgia currently leads in Downs’ On3’s Recruiting Prediction Machine, with Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame also in the mix.

14. DL David Hicks

Comparison: A’Shawn Robinson (Alabama, Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Rams)
The Reasoning: Like A’Shawn Robinson, David Hicks is a strength-based athlete who bullies opposing offensive linemen with advanced strength. Both Dallas area products have similar athleticism at the same juncture and win with power more than twitch. Robinson was a bit heavier as a high school prospect, but saw his weight plateau in the 300 pound range while at Alabama. Hicks has the frame to end up at a similar size.

Hicks’ On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine is split between in-state Texas A&M and Oklahoma.