Ole Miss Rebels: Post-spring stock report

JesseReSimonton

On3 image — Coming off a historic 10-win regular season, the Ole Miss Rebels are looking to continue their march toward the top of the SEC West in 2022.(Jonathan Bachman via Getty Images.)

With spring football in the rear view mirror, it’s time to fully embrace the Head Ball Coach’s “talkin’ season.” The transfer portal carousel has slowed, so while rosters aren’t totally finalized just yet, we at least have a sense of strong foundation for each SEC program.

So let’s take a stock report for every team in the conference, examining their offense, defense and overall outlook heading into the 2022 season.

Today we look at the Ole Miss Rebels.

OLE MISS OFFENSE — STOCK DOWN

While Lane Kiffin will always produce an offense worth watching, the Rebels won’t be as dynamic or efficient as they were in 2021.

The Rebels led the SEC in total yards and rushing touchdowns last season, and while their run game should remain very stout with transfers Zach Evans from TCU, SMU‘s Ulysses Bentley and backup Kentrel Bullock, their passing attack is more likely to resemble Ole Miss’ 2020 offense than 2021.

USC transfer Jaxson Dart and Luke Altymer are competing to replace quarterback Matt Corral, but neither are Matt Corral. And they shouldn’t expect to be.

Corral was the engine that powered Ole Miss’ offense the last two seasons, averaging 304.8 total yards in 2021 and 384.3 in 2020. The current Carolina Panthers quarterback had 31 total touchdowns and just five interceptions — nine fewer than he had a season earlier.

Expect that number to tick upwards, perhaps significantly so if Dart (the highest-turnover throw rate in the Pac-12 last season) wins the job. Interceptions were a problem this spring for the former 5-star quarterback, and while Altmyer was much better at taking care of the football during camp, he threw two picks in his lone significant action in 2021.

With USC transfer tight end Michael Trigg, one of the stars of the spring, as well as wideouts Jonathan Mingo, Malik Heath, Jalen Knox and Jordan Watkins, Ole Miss is hardly bereft of playmakers. Former UCF wideout Jaylon Robinson was a recent late add from the portal and gives the Rebels a some potential game-changing speed at the position. They have a solid offensive line, too, particularly with the addition of tackle Mason Brooks from Western Kentucky.

If the Rebels can limit their turnovers, then regardless of who wins the quarterback job, the infrastructure and pieces are there for the unit to remain elite. But for now, the likelier outcome is a Ole Miss offense that’s very good and very frustrating — like in 2020 (6.97 yards per play, 344.9 passing yards but also 14 interceptions).

OLE MISS DEFENSE — STOCK UP

A year after allowing the most points per game in the SEC (38.3), Ole Miss’ defense showed marked improvement in 2021 (24.7). The Rebels were passable on defense thanks to the play of guys like Sam Williams (No. 2 in the SEC in sacks and tackles for loss) and senior linebackers Chance Campbell and Mark Robinson.

But they’re all gone, as is defensive coordinator DJ Durkin.

While that’s a lot to replace, Kiffin brought in a full battalion of reinforcements for the Rebels. They added likely starters at defensive end (Jared Ivey from Georgia Tech), defensive tackle (JJ Pegues from Auburn), outside linebacker (Khari Coleman from TCU), inside linebacker (Troy Brown from Central Michigan) and two safeties (Isheem Young from Iowa State and Ladarius Tennison from Auburn). They also return guys like Cedric Johnson, a capable pass rusher, defensive backs Otis Reese and AJ Finley.

The Rebels are going to give up yards and points with the way Kiffin calls a game — both with his offensive scheme and aggressiveness on fourth down — but the unit has the upside to be even better than they were in 2021.

The secondary remains a big strength and the pass rush should be good, especially with the expectation the new co-DCs might be a big more aggressive than Durkin.

Two areas they need to shore up: Stopping the run and limiting easy first downs. The Rebels hemorrhaged rushing yards last season. A deeper defensive line should help there.

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Ole Miss must also solve its propensity to allow so many layups. The Rebels’ tackling was sound enough not to give up the home run play (just eight plays over 40+ yards, fewer than Georgia, Auburn or Alabama), but they were battered by doubles (208 plays over 10 yards, most in the SEC) over and over. The scheme is partly to blame, but it also forced Ole Miss’ defense to stay on the field way too long at times.

2022 OVERALL OUTLOOK — STOCK HOLDING

Take a quick scan of Ole Miss’ roster, especially after all the transfer portal additions, and it’s not hard to envision another 9 or 10-win season. There’s talent littered across the board.

But Lane Kiffin is on record noting that the game isn’t played on paper, which is why the Rebels enter the fall as one of the more fascinating teams in the country.

“It looks good on paper. People say, ‘Oh, you guys were No. 1 in the transfer portal.’ Who cares,” Kiffin said earlier this spring.

“That doesn’t mean anything. You don’t get trophies for that. And just because things look good on paper and good players doesn’t mean they mesh together.

“Look at basketball, NBA basketball. These teams are supposed to be great, but just because you have a couple great players on the rosters doesn’t mean (you win). That’s not how it works. So we’ve got a lot of work to do putting them together, getting them to buy into the culture and all that. It’s kind of like we’ve got all these new adoption kids that were raised in all these different places. It’s not like they’re all high school kids. These kids are three, four years at other colleges. So that’s a new, other world to try to do, we’re going to do.”

The challenge for the Rebels is to balance a roster full of reinforcements plus a completely revamped coaching staff all without taking a step back after their historic 10-win season. That’s a big ask.

Considering the quarterback position isn’t settled and there remains defensive concerns, it’s hard not to see Ole Miss taking a step backward in 2022.

The non-conference schedule is cake (Troy, Central Arkansas, Georgia Tech and Tulsa) and the Rebels also play Vanderbilt, so bowl eligibility isn’t in doubt. But the difference between a 6-7 win season vs. competing for the top-half of the SEC West is a back-end slate that includes road games at LSU, Texas A&M and Arkansas and home dates with Alabama and Mississippi State.