2025 draft data reveals On3's strength in predicting future NFL picks

On3’s rankings are judged by the NFL Draft. The NFL Draft represents the best indication of a player’s ability coming out of college football. The vast majority of the best players in college football are early-round NFL Draft picks. Other than recruiting rankings, it’s the only other point in a player’s career where they are exhaustively sorted by talent and ability.

With that in mind, scoring the NFL Draft can provide a report card for how On3 and the rest of the recruiting industry stack up. Doing so allows us to learn from successes and mistakes to improve our rankings product in the future.

Overall, the recruiting industry annually does a great job of projecting future success at the college level. Tabbing 17-18-year-old high school football players as future draft picks relative to thousands of peers is much easier said than done.

On3 leads with the most blue-chip prospects closest to draft spot

The method: To keep this as simple as possible, we will assign a winner for each draft pick based on how close the numeric ranking is to their draft spot. If there is an equal distance between multiple rankings and the draft spot, all sites will get credit for a win, including if the highest ranking is an unranked four-star. No winner is awarded for players who were not ranked as a blue-chip prospect (4-star or 5-star) by any site. We are counting prospects from the 2021 and 2022 cycles, as On3’s inaugural ranking came during the 2021 cycle.

Round 1
1. On3 – closest ranking on 12 first-rounders
2. Rivals – closest ranking on 8 first-rounders
3. ESPN – closest ranking on 6 first-rounders
4. 247Sports – closest ranking on 2 first-rounders

Overall, it was a stellar showing by the recruiting industry as a remarkable 28/32 first-rounders were ranked as a five-star or a four-star by at least one outlet. Two of the four non-blue-chip players signed with an FCS program out of high school, making for a 93.3% hit rate on blue-chip first-rounders who signed at the FBS level.

Rounds 1-3
1. On3 – 28
2. Rivals – 13
3. ESPN – 11
4. 247Sports – 7

We view rounds 1-3 as the best indicator of rankings success. In looking to establish macro trends within the draft, we find that the first three rounds present the best mix of top prospects who project as NFL starters and a sample size large enough to account for all positions. Day 3 sees a much higher percentage of future backups selected, muddying the waters.

Rounds 1-7
1. On3 – 39
2. ESPN – 27
3. Rivals – 20
4. 247Sports – 17

Players from earlier cycles are still being drafted, including former 2020 prospects, a cycle that touts arguably the most loaded group of future draft picks to come through the high school ranks in recent memory.

2020 recruiting cycle:
1. 247Sports – 18
2. ESPN – 12
3. Rivals – 10

On3’s rankings measure as the most consistent

We can get a feel for the consistency of rankings by measuring the average distance from high school ranking to the draft spot for prospects who are ranked as a blue-chip by at least one outlet. This measure helps to account for big misses relative to the rest of the industry.

In assessing the first round, On3 and 247Sports had the most consistent rankings relative to the draft spot for prospects from the 2021 and 2022 recruiting cycles. On3 led the way with the lowest average distance from high school ranking to the draft position, with 247Sports not far behind. The average distance from the draft spot for On3 and 247Sports was twice as close as that of Rivals (3rd) and ESPN (4th).

For the entire draft, On3 also had the closest average ranking relative to the draft spot. On3 was 29% closer to the average draft spot than 247Sports (the clear No. 2), and approximately twice as close to the draft spot as ESPN (3rd) and Rivals (4th).

On3, 247Sports lead the way with the most 5-star first-rounders

Five-star prospects are meant to project as future first-round picks. Here is the tally of five-stars taken in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft:

1. On3, 247Sports – 11 (tie)
2. Rivals – 9
3. ESPN – 6

Two five-star outliers were selected in the first round: Georgia’s Jalon Walker (247Sports five-star outlier) and Tennessee’s James Pearce (On3 five-star outlier). Oddly enough, both EDGE prospects were taken by the Atlanta Falcons and are both from the Charlotte, North Carolina area. Pearce (No. 11 overall for On3 in 2022), whose next highest ranking was No. 160 (Rivals) is one of the two biggest five-star outliers taken in the first round, along with former Northwestern offensive lineman Peter Skoronski (2023 draft).

On3 has the most blue-chip prospects drafted

Blue-chip prospects – defined as four-stars and five-stars – are players who are projected as future draft picks. Here is the tally of prospects from the 2021 and 2022 cycles who were tabbed as a blue-chip prospect by each site.

On3 – 85
247Sports – 78
Rivals – 77
ESPN – 71

Biggest hits for each recruiting site

These are prospects that each outlet had ranked considerably higher than the rest of the industry and were also the closest to the draft spot.

On3: Abdul Carter, Kelvin Banks, Kenneth Grant, James Pearce (5-star outlier), Nick Emmanwori, Oluwafemi Oladejo, Mike Green, Andrew Mukuba, Jaylin Noel, KJ Winston, Jeffrey Bassa, Riley Leonard, Jimmy Horn Jr.

247Sports: Jalon Walker (5-star outlier), Jahdae Barron (2020 cycle), Ozzy Trapilo (2020), Dylan Fairchild, Savion Williams (2020), Jack Kiser (2020), Jordan James, Drew Kendall, Devin Neal

ESPN: Will Campbell, Tyler Warren (2020), Landon Jackson, Princely Umanmielen (2020), Wyatt Milum, Joshua Farmer, Shedeur Sanders, Hayden Conner

Rivals: Mason Graham, Tetairoa McMillan, Mason Taylor, Azareye’h Thomas, Trevor Etienne, Denzel Burke, Warren Brinson (2020)