On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine: Previewing commitments this week

As the month of December gets underway, the recruiting trail is hotter than ever. Nearly 90 percent of the country’s top recruits are already committed, but some of the biggest names are still on the board and preparing to make their final decisions.

That includes more than a half-dozen coveted prospects — including a few of the nation’s elite recruits — deciding between some of the country’s top programs over the next few days. With the help of the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine (RPM), we’ll preview each of the expected commitments this week.

December 1

2024 4-star LB Sterling Dixon
School: Mobile (Ala.) Christian School
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 212 (No. 61 in the On300)
On3 RPM: Alabama 62.8%, Auburn 34.5%, LSU 1.4%

The Skinny: One of the top players in Alabama, Dixon has been heavily considered both in-state programs, as well as LSU. Auburn was considered a strong favorite to land him over the summer, but LSU’s push this fall lifted the Tigers to the top. Over the past few weeks though, it’s the Crimson Tide who have made a big move. A handful of expert picks are now in the Tide’s favor with his commitment coming down shortly.

3-star WR Kaleb Smith
School: Frisco (Texas) Reedy
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 934
On3 RPM: Notre Dame 94.4%, Texas Tech 5.6%

The Skinny: Smith committed to Texas Tech all the way back in February when the Red Raiders were his first offer. After a strong summer and fall, Notre Dame offered, he decommitted from Tech and took an official visit to South Bend the day after. All signs point to the Fighting Irish adding to their top-three class with a wideout who On3 is higher on than the rest of the recruiting industry.

December 3

3-star LB Marcellius Pulliam
School: Tyrone (Ga.) Sandy Creek
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 644
On3 RPM: Mississippi State 27.7%, Kentucky 23.6%, Louisville 15.3%, Georgia Tech 8.6%

The Skinny: Early last month, Pulliam told On3’s Jeremy Johnson that he was going to decide between Auburn, Miami, Georgia Tech, Mississippi State and Louisville. Both the Cardinals and Bulldogs got official visits from him, while Miami had one scheduled but he ultimately didn’t make it. This one looks to be coming down to Louisville and Mississippi State, with some late buzz in Mike Leach and Co.’s favor.

December 4

5-star EDGE Samuel M’Pemba
School: Bradenton (Fla.) IMG Academy
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 24
On3 RPM: Georgia 93.7%, Miami 1.5%

The Skinny: For most of the fall, the buzz around M’Pemba has been with Georgia. Tennessee hosted him for an official visit, and other schools stayed among his top schools, but his relationship with assistant Chidera Uzo-Diribe and Kirby Smart has put the Bulldogs in a very strong position to land their first five-star of the 2023 recruiting cycle.

December 5

3-star CB Nireek Sharpe
School: Stockbridge (Ga.)
On3 Consensus Ranking: N/R
On3 RPM: Georgia Tech 50.0%, Mississippi State 43.7%

Note: Sharpe tweeted on Thursday afternoon that he has postponed his decision until Dec. 9.

The Skinny: Sharpe was expected to take an official visit to Michigan State this weekend, but that trip was canceled. He’s now focused on two schools: Georgia Tech and Mississippi State, with the in-state Yellow Jackets holding a slight lead after interim head coach Brent Key was given the full-time role.

December 7

4-star ATH Brandyn Hillman
School: Portsmouth (Va.) Churchland
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 348
On3 RPM: Notre Dame 99.4%

The Skinny: Hillman has been one of the biggest risers in the entire country over the past few months, not only in recruiting rankings but also in offers. Along with Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Tennessee, USC and Kentucky are among the programs to get involved in his recruitment. The Irish, however, were among the first to do so and got him on campus in October. They’ve been trending as the heavy favorite ever since.

2024 4-star QB DJ Lagway
School: Willis (Texas)
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 21
On3 RPM: Florida 67.9%, Texas A&M 9.4%, LSU 7.2%, USC 4.7%

The Skinny: The No. 2 passer in the 2024 On300, Lagway has long been one of the most sought-after players in the 2024 class. Texas A&M, just a short drive from his hometown, was thought to be the favorite early on. This fall, Clemson and Florida jumped to the head of the pack after unofficial visits to both schools. But according to On3’s Sam Spiegelman, this is down to a two-team race between USC and Florida. The Gators hold the lead a little less than a week out, but you can never count Lincoln Riley out when it comes to elite quarterback recruits.