The race for No. 1, the toughest player to rank: On3 expert breaks down 2023 ranking update

The 2023 On3 150 has been updated. We are over halfway through the high school season, and this update is the second to last update for the class. On3 National Recruiting Analyst Jamie Shaw goes through some of the burning questions that stemmed from Monday’s update.

Click for the Full 2023 On3 150 Rankings Update

Which players are you higher on than others?

Looking through the five-star players, the two players who pop out are Stephon Castle and Elmarko Jackson.

For me, it started this summer with Castle. His play on the UAA Next Circuit with the Atlanta XPress was consistently high-level. The 6-foot-5 guard played as the primary initiator, and he averaged 16.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 3.0 assists.

He followed his circuit play with back-to-back standout performances at the Wootten Top 150 Camp and USA Basketball Junior National Team minicamp. So in the last update, we made the move and became the first to rank Castle as a five-star at No. 11.

Since we moved him to five-star status, Castle has done nothing but turn in high-level performances. A triple-double at the famed City of Palms, a 41-point outburst at the noted Red River Shootout, and 28 points, 19 rebounds, and six assists at the Hawks-Nasmith Classic.

Elmarko Jackson entered the rankings a year ago because of his physical traits. At 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds, Jackson is a bigger guard. He also carries shot out of a cannon-type speed and burst. The upside was too much to ignore. This is not surprising given his excellent bloodlines as his dad was a running back and Temple and his uncle a defensive back at Michigan.

However, over the past year, Jackson has really started to understand pace, and this is what has boosted him to five-star status. In the full court, the speed is still an asset, but when you mix his natural speed and size with his ability to change pace in the half-court, Jackson is really difficult to keep out of the paint.

Another one who played on the UA Next Circuit this summer, Jackson averaged 15.1 points and 4.0 assists while shooting almost 33 percent from three. The Kansas signee’s progression has been steep, and it has been consistent throughout the previous 12 months.

How close was the race for No. 1?

To be honest with you, it was not that close. Of course, we had a conversation, but it did not take long to come to the decision that Aaron Bradshaw was still the guy.

For the 2023 class, Aaron Bradshaw, in my opinion, is the best mixture of current production and considerable upside for growth. He is already producing at a consistently high rate, both for nationally ranked Camden (NJ) High and on NIke’s EYBL Circuit.

With Bradshaw, we see a player who is 7-foot-0 with fluid explosiveness, natural shot-block timing, and some shooting upside with touch. The fact he has consistently produced double-doubles over the past 12 months, playing on the EYBL and in national high school events, there is a lot to like there.

Southern California signee Isaiah Collier was the only other player in the class for this update that was in the conversation with Bradshaw.

Who was the toughest player in this class to rank?

Xavier Booker was tough to pinpoint where he should be in the rankings. There is no denying the physical upside, he stands a legit 6-foot-10, and he moves in a way not many his size can. There is physical fluidity and explosive burst. These are the reasons why he jumped into the back end of the top ten for us.

However, the production just has not followed his physical traits yet. Even being the tallest player on the court, with offensive skill and touch, Booker goes through prolonged stretches of not affecting any aspect of the game.

Bigs can sometimes take a little bit longer to reach their upside or develop. So I am by no means writing Booker off. He remains in the top 15 of the 2023 On3 150 update and is a five-star because the tools, at this point, are simply too much.

Who surprised you the most when going through senior season film?

It is always an interesting and very important piece, rounding up senior film on players. However, recently it has become a lot easier to do with the number of streams and networks available. Players who do not play on major circuits and are in less densely populated parts of the country can be seen regularly.

This summer was the first in a while that Howard Pulley was not part of Nike’s EYBL Circuit. The newly independent program, Wisconsin signee Nolan Winter has put together some very impressive film up to this point in his senior season. The 6-foot-10 forward from Minnesota can handle, shoot, and pass in the half-court.

The jump shot is pretty, and he takes it with confidence in rhythm off the catch or off movement. He can handle the ball in straight lines in the half-court, he is a fluid athlete with some wiggle, and he shows some toughness on the boards, despite his skinny frame.

There is a lot to like in Winter’s game, and while we remain the only service to have him currently ranked, his senior film made another bump necessary.

Who has done the most to help their ranking?

I already spoke about Stephon Castle above, so I will talk about Ohio State signee Devin Royal here.

Royal averaged 18.4 points and shot 49 percent from the field throughout Nike’s Peach Jam. After that performance, really, it was a summer-long performance that spanned from winning an Ohio State Championship through Peach Jam in July; we made the move to put him in the top 25.

Looking through Royal’s early season high school film, his efficient scoring ways did not slow down. After a January live-viewing where he went for 23 and six going 9-of-15 from the field, Royal moved up to be the highest-ranked four-star in the 2023 On3 150 update.

Royal has had a unique path; he is a late bloomer, having lost a lot of weight since stepping foot on a high school campus. When the weight dropped, his game took off. Royal was named Ohio Division 1 All-State last year after averaging just over 19 and eight and winning a state championship. With a target on his back this season, he has continued in his efficient ways.

Royal’s scoring translates, so a move to No. 21 in the 2023 On3 150 update felt necessary.