Using BCS formula to predict fourth College Football Playoff Top 25, 12-team CFP bracket

The fourth College Football Playoff rankings will be revealed on Tuesday evening following Week 13, and there’s bound to be a shake-up within the teams selected following the upset-filled slate we witnessed this past weekend.

A 12-team format will take place for the first time in the sport’s history in 2024, replacing the four-team model, but many of the points of contention have remained. More teams in the CFP have certainly added intrigue this late in the season, but there’s still an old-school way of looking at the rankings, with the BCS formula still being used on social media.

With that in mind, the BCS’s latest Top 25 was revealed on Monday, giving us some insight at how these teams would rank and slot into the College Football Playoff if it was still used today. Here’s the way the BCS-style formula would have the rankings look after Week 13.

1. Oregon Ducks

A rare Week 13 bye week, Oregon watched other teams fall via upset on the couch. After eight straight conference games, the break was much needed for the Ducks.

Oregon has already secured a spot in the Big Ten title game, just awaiting their opponent. First up is a bitter rivalry against Washington, hoping to get revenge after two defeats last season.

2. Texas Longhorns

SEC chaos occurred behind Texas during Week 13. Business was taken care of against Kentucky, keeping the Longhorns as the conference’s automatic qualifier for the time being.

Next up is an in-state rivalry renewal against Texas A&M. Win and Texas will head to Atlanta for the SEC Championship game in the program’s first season in the conference.

3. Miami Hurricanes

Miami finds itself ranked No. 7 in the latest BCS rankings. But due to being the ACC’s highest-ranked team, they are currently classified as the three-seed with a bye.

Just two wins separate this from a projection to reality. Mario Cristobal‘s team will travel to Syrayces on Saturday and if they win, play in the ACC Championship game.

4. Boise State Broncos

A Group of Five program receiving a top-four seed and bye in the CFP would not have been expected at the beginning of the year. However, Boise State continues to stack wins with the latest being a close call against Wyoming.

Running back Ashton Jeanty will certainly be in New York City for the Heisman Trophy ceremony. If all goes to plan, he will be leading Boise State into the 12-team field with intentions of playing Cinderella.

5. Ohio State Buckeyes vs. 12. Arizona State Sun Devils

Due to Oregon’s ranking, Ohio State has been the five-seed for quite a few weeks. The Big Ten championship game will likely determine who gets this position. Either way, a home game in Columbus is not too bad of a trade-off.

Traveling up there is currently the Big 12’s highest-ranked team, Arizona State. Kenny Dillingham got a huge win for the program vs. BYU on Saturday and has people in Tempe believing.

6. Penn State Nittany Lions vs. 11. Indiana Hoosiers

Of the four projected first-round matchups, this is the only one with two teams from the same conference. Luckily, Penn State and Indiana have not played each other this year due to the Big Ten’s expansion.

Both teams currently only have one loss, coming at the hands of Ohio State. Winning regular season finales might be good enough to get them in the 12-team field on Selection Sunday and maybe face off.

7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. 10. Tennessee Volunteers

South Bend would play host to these two historic teams, making for the eighth matchup between the two. This one would be quite the tiebreaker as Tennessee and Notre Dame currently have four wins against one another.

All that stands in their way of potentially making the CFP are rivalry games, going up against Vanderbilt and USC. Head coaches Marcus Freeman and Josh Heupel will have their players ready to roll.

8. Georgia Bulldogs vs. 9. SMU Mustangs

The BCS currently projects just one SEC team to host a playoff game. Georgia would get the honors, welcoming SMU to Athens in what would be the Mustangs’ first-ever CFP appearance.

Winning conference championships and earning a bye is still alive for both Georgia and SMU. Tickets to Atlanta and Charlotte, respectively, have been booked ahead of their final regular season showdowns.

Full BCS Top 25 following Week 12

Outside of the College Football Playoff teams, there are still multiple programs ranked inside the BCS top 25 with a realistic shot of getting into the field — although, the list is shrinking. This set of rankings will certainly be compared to the CFP’s once released on Tuesday night. Check it out below.

1. Oregon Ducks
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
3. Texas Longhorns
4. Penn State Nittany Lions
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
6. Georgia Bulldogs
7. Miami Hurricanes
8. SMU Mustangs
9. Indiana Hoosiers
10. Tennessee Volunteers
11. Boise State Broncos
12. Clemson Tigers
13. Alabama Crimson Tide
14. Arizona State Sun Devils
15. South Carolina Gamecocks
16. Ole Miss Rebels
17. Iowa State Cyclones
18. BYU Cougars
19. Tulane Green Wave
20. Texas A&M Aggies
21. Kansas State Wildcats
22. UNLV Rebels
23. Illinois Fighting Illini
24. Missouri Tigers
25. Army Black Knights

On3’s Steve Samra contributed to this report