Who will land commitment from 5-star EDGE Keon Keeley?

One of the top uncommitted prospects in the 2023 class is Tampa (Fla.) Berkeley Prep five-star EDGE Keon Keeley. The 6-foot-6, 245 pound prospect was committed to Notre Dame for more than a year, but backed off his pledge to the Fighting Irish on Aug. 17.

Today, Alabama is believed to be in the best position for the five-star recruit. The On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine currently gives the Crimson Tide a 90.7% chance to land the No. 3 overall prospect in the 2023 On300.

However, Florida and Ohio State are still in the race. The Buckeyes will receive an official visit from Keeley this weekend for the Notre Dame game, while the Gators are getting one sometime this season. Additionally, Keeley is returning to Tuscaloosa on Oct. 8 for an official visit during the Crimson Tide’s game against Texas A&M.

With less than five months until the Early Signing Period, questions still remain about Keeley’s recruitment and his upcoming decision. On3 Director of Recruiting Chad Simmons, Gators Online Recruiting Analyst Corey Bender, BamaInsider Recruiting Reporter Joseph Hastings and Letterman Row Recruiting Reporter Matt Parker are here to explain their insight on who they think will land one of the top players in the country.

Why did Keon Keeley decommit from Notre Dame?

On3 Director of Recruiting Chad Simmons: “From the beginning, I felt like he rushed it. He committed in the summer before his junior year started, so I think a lot of kids, not just him, get caught up in the moment. He loved Notre Dame. He went there and the academic prestige, football tradition, all of that stood out. I think he really thought highly of them, but a few months later, as more schools reached out, he picked up new offers. I think, in a way, he felt guilty, feeling interested in other schools at the time…”

Letterman Row Recruiting Reporter Matt Parker: “This is just my opinion. Everything that I know is just from sources that Letterman Row has, but I think it’s just the opportunity to play somewhere else. Notre Dame and Marcus Freeman are putting together a really good thing. But to me, it seems Keon is looking for a more established thing. There’s obviously an established program down in Tuscaloosa, with Alabama. The consistency for Ohio State has been with Larry Johnson and that defensive line… There’s just a lot less questions about what it would be in terms of Alabama, Ohio State, even Florida to an extent. So to me, I think that’s one of the reasons why. It’s probably one of the biggest reasons.“

Who is the favorite for Keon Keeley’s commitment?

BamaInsider Recruiting Reporter Joseph Hastings: “Alabama, definitely. There’s no coincidence that he decommitted after taking that visit to Tuscaloosa for the Champions cookout on July 30. He visited Florida and Ohio State in March. He didn’t decommit after he did those. Instead, he returned to Notre Dame the next month for their spring game, took an official visit to Notre Dame in June, so those trips didn’t move him. But this Alabama one did... They got more time with the coaches, several meetings with future position coach, if he ends up going to Alabama, Coleman Hutzler and two meetings with Nick Saban. They talked to Caleb Downs, Justice Haynes. It just worked in the favor for Alabama. They built a ton of momentum and honestly, after the visit, we were expecting the decommitment...”

On3 Director of Recruiting Chad Simmons: “I think it’s depending on who you talk to. I definitely hear more about Alabama. I would say from more sources than I do any other school, but I definitely hear enough about Florida to know they are very much in this and right there with Alabama. I would give Alabama the edge at this point entering the season. He’s going to take an official visit to Alabama, and then also to Florida. He grew up a Florida fan. He’s still got Florida stuff in his bedroom. He lives in Florida. He’s close to his family. He wants to see what Florida does on the field this season. But if you’re asking me for the leader today, who I think is in the best spot right now, I would lean towards Alabama.” 

Why is Alabama in a good position for Keon Keeley?

BamaInsider Recruiting Reporter Joseph Hastings: “One, they’re in the SEC. That’s something that’s very appealing to him. He wants to be a part of that conference… Also, he loves Alabama’s winning tradition, their player development, what they’ve been able to do at the EDGE position with Will Anderson and Dallas Turner. Those things are obviously sticking out to him. Also, Alabama’s like that happy medium. Yes, it is out of state. It’s further away from home than a Florida or a Miami would be, but it also isn’t as far away as Columbus or South Bend are… Just a lot of factors involved there… You see all the commits that are reaching out to him. He’s a very likable kid, has built up relationships there. So all of that combined, I think this is why Alabama’s ahead right now.” 

Where does Florida stand in the race for Keon Keeley?

Gators Online Recruiting Analyst Corey Bender: “Oh, definitely top three, possibly top two right behind Alabama… When he visited last year, I think it was when Florida hosted Alabama… he just raved and raved about Florida… Right now, it’s just more that childhood fandom and then also too, just the momentum that Billy Napier’s staff has. They hosted him in early March. It was a very successful visit. But that was the only visit, the only meeting he had with that new staff. So I think he’s noticing the success they’re having on the recruiting trail and definitely wants to give them a shot… They’re definitely a real threat in this recruitment…”

On3 Director of Recruiting Chad Simmons: “…Going back to his childhood, he grew up a Florida fan. He has watched Florida his entire life. I’ve been told he still has Florida curtains in his room. He knows all about the University of Florida. That coaching staff’s done a great job recruiting him. They got him on campus in the spring. They tried to get him on campus for Friday Night Lights in July, but of course, Alabama won that battle and got him in Tuscaloosa instead. A lot plays into Florida and what they look like year one under Billy Napier. He wants to see how the team plays. He wants to see how his position performs. He wants to continue to work on that relationship with defensive line coach Sean Spencer and he’ll probably get out there at least twice this year, once for a game and once for an official...“

What is Ohio State’s chance for Keon Keeley?

Letterman Row Recruiting Reporter Matt Parker: “Ohio State has been a silent player for Keon for a while now. They offered him back in December and they’ve been in quiet contact with Keon since that offer. I know Luke Montgomery, four star offensive lineman and 2023 commit, has been in contact with Keon pretty quietly throughout this whole entire process... It all depends on how that Sept. 3 official visit goes...There’s a lot of good things trending for Ohio State, but it all depends, of course, on the on-field production. You know, how does Ohio State’s defense look against such a talented Notre Dame offense?… When he walks into that defense, is it something that he can see himself in? There are a lot of questions to be answered for Keon and I can’t overstate how big this visit is for Ohio State and for Keon.”

Is Notre Dame still a contender for Keon Keeley?

On3 Director of Recruiting Chad Simmons: “At this point, I’d probably say no. I don’t think there’s hard feelings on either side. Notre Dame would love to have him back, but I do think he ends up elsewhere… I don’t think Notre Dame is being strongly considered at this point by Keon. We’ll see if that changes, but at this point, I would say they’re likely out.”

When should Keon Keeley’s decision be expected?

Gators Online Recruiting Analyst Corey Bender: “He’s very well-reserved and doesn’t reveal too many details, but I think it’s going to be later in the fall... Florida is going to be a host at some point, but it sounds like it’s going to be later in the fall. As far as Florida’s plans, the only game as of right now that they plan on hosting official visitors is Oct. 15 vs. LSU…Just the fact that he’s definitely going to officially visit Florida, I think he’s going to wait at least a couple months to take some visits. If it’s not early December, I assume it’s going to be in probably November, late fall sometime.”

On3 Director of Recruiting Chad Simmons: “I think at least after the official visits. It could go up until December. I don’t know if he’ll take it that long... I think any school would love to have him on campus late and make that impression before the Early Signing Period. But there’s really no timeline for him right now. I think it happens after he feels like he’s done with the official business, whether that’s taking four, whether it’s taking five, whether those go into November or December. I think he takes the OVs he feels like he needs to take and then makes a decision at some point after that.”