Why 2023 NFL draft will coronate Georgia as top dog of college football

It isn’t smart to make a habit of studying NFL draft results for clues to the mysteries of college football. The pro game differs from the college game, players mature on their own clocks, etc., etc. If the intention is to paint an accurate picture, it’s best to use a broad brush.

With that caveat in mind, as we await the announcements of NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell in Kansas City on Thursday night, recent NFL drafts have underscored how the balance of power has changed on autumn Saturdays.

For years, coaches and commentators alike have pegged the difference between the SEC and the rest of college football at the defensive line. There are a limited number of athletes who take up the space of a gun safe yet maintain the athleticism to move quickly enough to frustrate a blocker. Like pine straw and sweet tea, they are usually found in the SEC footprint, and SEC schools have been adept at signing the vast majority of them.

In the last four NFL drafts alone, the SEC had 27 defensive linemen selected in the first three rounds. The other four Power Five conferences had a total of 29.

The numbers are even more stark at defensive tackle. NFL teams in the last four years chose 14 SEC defensive tackles in the first three rounds. None of the other Power Five conferences had more than three.

That’s a big reason why the SEC has won the last four national championships and 13 of the last 17. And it turns out, it just may be a big reason for the power shift within the conference.

The dominance of Alabama during Nick Saban’s 16 seasons has been interrupted by the rise of Georgia, coached since 2016 by Kirby Smart, for years Saban’s top assistant. The Bulldogs won the last two CFP Championship Games and went 29-1 in those two seasons. Alabama, 24-4, didn’t exactly fall out of sight. 

Crimson Tide fans are quick to point out that Saban’s Alabama teams are 7-2 against Georgia and 4-1 against Smart, with that lone victory coming in the CFP Championship Game two seasons ago when injuries to wide receivers John Metchie and Jameson Williams left the Tide with a one-dimensional offense.

But the head-to-head record is not the argument here.

The point is that the Bulldogs have surged to the top of the sport, while the Tide ebbed just enough to cede primacy.

Against that backdrop, take a look at the recent NFL drafts. Last year, Georgia had three defensive linemen taken in the first round. This year, Bulldog defensive tackle Jalen Carter is expected to go early in the first round. Alabama hasn’t had a defensive lineman taken in the first round since 2019. If you expand the field to include linebackers, in the 2021-22 NFL drafts Georgia had eight players taken to Alabama’s three.

In the four previous drafts, from 2017-20, Alabama had 10 players taken in the first three rounds to Georgia’s two.

During those two seasons, Alabama pivoted from being dominant on defense to dominant on offense. In the last three drafts, eight Crimson Tide players went in the first round alone.

Offense has never been more dominant in college football, perhaps because at nearly every turn over the last 50 years, college football rules have been adjusted to favor the offense. Pass blocking has been liberalized. Clock changes promoted the up-tempo spread.

And yet who trusts offense to dominate?

Alabama scored at least 31 points in five of its six losses over the last four seasons. Defense is mathematically sound, as in, they can’t beat you if they don’t score. And defense is weatherproof in a way that offense never will be.

Theories abound for the shift in power from Alabama to Georgia.

The recruiting acumen of former Tide defensive line coach Tosh Lupoi has not been replaced. The Tide pipeline to Louisiana has slowed with the departure of longtime assistant Burton Burns. Smart always has been an aggressive recruiter. The SEC East has a shorter road to the top than the SEC West. The search for an explanation will continue until Georgia is overtaken.

In the meantime, Georgia is expected to have two members of its defensive front seven, tackle Jalen Carter and linebacker Nolan Smith, taken in the first round Thursday night. Alabama will have one, linebacker-turned-end Will Anderson Jr. The picture speaks for itself.