2024 NASCAR Predictions: Rookie of the Year
The 2024 NASCAR season is really just three months away. So, let’s get into some predictions surrounding the Rookie of the Year battle. This season, it wasn’t a very exciting race for ROY. Even prior to Noah Gragson’s departure from Legacy Motor Club, Ty Gibbs had the award wrapped up.
However, in the 2024 NASCAR season, we are going to be treated to a great battle. At least, it has the potential to be great.
Josh Berry, Zane Smith, and Carson Hocevar. Those three drivers are all going to be rookies. All three of our incoming rookies had Cup Series starts in the 2023 season. So no one is going in completely blind.
That means we will have three rookies with some idea of what they are doing. Berry for Stewart-Haas Racing. Smith for Spire Motorsports, via Trackhouse Racing. Hocevar for Spire Motorsports. No one should have a massive advantage in equipment for 2024. Although Berry might have an edge there.
Let’s get into what makes these drivers so interesting. NASCAR in 2024 is going to be exciting.
Rookie of the Year – Tale of the Tape
First, let’s start with the eldest of the three incoming rookies, Josh Berry. The 2024 NASCAR season has been a long time coming for this 33-year-old short-track racer. There’s a reason why SHR wanted him to replace Kevin Harvick.
Berry by the stats:
Xfinity Series
-5 wins, 48 top-10s, and 4 pole awards in 87 starts.
-Best finish in the series, 4th in 2022.
Cup Series
-3 top-10s in 12 starts.
-Best finish – P2 at Richmond-1 (2023).
Other stats
-Wins leader in CARS Tour, 2017 CARS Tour Champion.
-2020 NASCAR Advance Auto Parts Weekly Series Champion.
-2019 Martinsville 300 winner (Late Model Stock Car)
Now we move on down the list to Zane Smith. 24 years old and full of talent and promise. Zane is piloting the No. 71 next year for Spire Motorsports but is under contract with Trackhouse Racing.
Smith by the stats:
Craftsman Truck Series
-9 wins, 55 top-10s, 3 pole awards in 82 starts.
-2022 Truck Series Champion
Xfinity Series
-8 top-10s in just 12 starts
Cup Series
-A top-10 finish in 7 starts. P10 at Coca-Cola 600.
Other stats
-2020 Truck Series Most Popular Driver, Rookie of the Year
-2018 ARCA Racing Series Rookie of the Year
-2015 CARS Super Late Model Tour Rookie of the Year
Finally, we have 20-year-old Carson Hocevar. He’s going to be able to celebrate with more than just water and cokes the next time he gets to victory lane. Hocevar might have the most raw talent out of this rookie class.
Hocevar by the stats:
Craftsman Truck Series
-4 wins, 33 top-10s, 1 pole award in 75 starts.
-Best finish in the series, 3rd in 2023.
Xfinity Series
-2 top-10s in 5 starts
Cup Series
-Six career races
-Best finish of P11 at Bristol Night Race
Other stats
-2020 Winchester 400 winner
2024 NASCAR Rookie of the Year Prediction
Now we have laid out the stats. While you can get a lot of knowledge just from the box score, it helps to have seen it with your own two eyes. I believe that all three of these drivers can have success in the Cup Series. However, there is a 40-week 2024 NASCAR season to get through.
While all three drivers are skilled they each have their own positives and negatives. Josh Berry is the steady hand. He’s not going to wow you necessarily, but when he starts to rattle off consistent top-15 and top-10 finishes, it won’t be a shock to me.
Then you have Zane Smith who is a Truck Series champion. He has the pedigree and the results to back up his move to the Cup Series. With him, it could go either way. While Spire Motorsports has more funding, will that translate onto the track in 2024? Hard to say.
Finally, Carson Hocevar. Raw talent and speed and also a little immature. Just when you think he’s turned the corner, he does something like the Corey Heim incident to end the season. Hocevar took a car that struggled to find the top 25 at times and made it a top 20 car. He earned the No. 42 team their season-best finish at Bristol at P11.
To conclude our predictions – I believe that Josh Berry is going to be Rookie of the Year. Berry is with SHR, he will have three teammates to work with. He’s the older rookie, and knows how to take care of equipment and when to back off. I’m not sure if any rookie wins a race this season, but I predict Berry is going to be the Rookie of the Year for the 2024 NASCAR season.