2024 NFL Draft: Five quarterbacks, receivers go in 1st Round, plus trades galore among bold predictions

After months of over-analyzation, rampant speculation, and rumors running amok, the 2024 NFL Draft is finally here. 

This year’s class features one of the deepest pools of quarterbacks we’ve seen in years, with the expectation we could see all sorts of trades in the Top 10 Thursday night. 

I’m no draft guru, but even the best experts whiff on plenty of pre-draft predictions. A year ago, I nailed multiple Day 1 predictions. So let’s join in the fun again this year, and offer some takes on what might happen over the next three days in Detroit.

Here’s seven bold predictions for the 2024 NFL Draft:

5X5: The 2024 NFL Draft will feature exactly five Day 1 quarterbacks and five receivers selected in Round 1

Part 1 of this prediction isn’t overly bold if you believe Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix will slide into the 1st Round at some point Thursday night.

It’s a foregone conclusion that Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy will come off the board (perhaps in that exact order) fairly early, so this prediction hinges on a team like Oakland or Denver maybe reaching for a QB later on Day 1. 

Part II of this take is much more of a gamble, as there could be 5-8 receivers selected in the 1st Round tonight. Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze and Brian Thomas Jr. are all locks. 

And then it’s your favorite flavor of ice cream. Some may like a AD Mitchell. Others prefer a Ladd McConkey. What about Xavier Worthy, Troy Franklin or Keon Coleman?

Five could be just right or way too low. 

Trey Benson will set the all-time record for the latest a running back has ever been selected in the NFL Draft

A tailback has been selected in the first round in nine of the last 10 NFL Drafts, but a decade ago, Bishop Sankey set the modern record for the latest a running back has come off the board. The Washington standout went 54th overall to the Tennessee Titans, and that record is in danger in 2024. 

There definitely won’t be a 1st Round tailback selected, and considering there’s little consensus on the best 5-10 ‘backs available, it’s anyone’s guess who will be RB1 this year. My guess is Florida State’s Trey Benson. 

Not a ton of tread on his tires (although he does have a torn ACL in his history) with good instincts and big-play potential. He seems like a natural fit with Dallas at No. 56 — which would set the NFL record.

Byron Murphy II, not Dallas Turner or Quinyon Mitchell, is the first defensive player off the board

This is not a draft flush with high-end defensive linemen, particularly interior tackles, which is why Texas stud Byron Murphy continues to surge up boards late in the process. The Longhorns’ DT is a twitchy pass rusher and a disruptive run defender — skills the Falcons defense desperately needs. 

New head coach Raheem Morris saw first-hand what a dominant interior tackle can do for a defense, and while Murphy isn’t Aaron Donald, he would be a smart pick for Atlanta.

In a loaded year for offensive linemen, 10 (or more) get drafted in the 1st Round 

If you need a tackle or combo guard/tackle, man are you in luck in 2024. This year’s draft is flush with offensive line depth, and I could see close to 1/3 of the 1st Round being linemen off the board. 

Joe Alt, JC Latham, Taliese Fuaga, Ole Fashanu, Troy Fautanu, Amarius Mims and Tyler Guyton all seem like surefire picks on Day 1. Duke’s Graham Barton and Oregon’s Jackson Powers-Johnson are probably safe guesses, too. 

Then there’s Jordan Morgan, Zach Frazier, Kingsley Suamataia and Patrick Paul — any of whom could be selected late tonight. 

Again, does your team need a big ugly? There’s plenty of good options to be had. 

Michigan will not break Georgia’s record of 15 NFL Draft picks

Before Michigan’s historic 2023 national championship season, head coach Jim Harbaugh famously predicted that the Wolverines would break 2022 Georgia’s all-time record of 15 players selected off of its national title team. 

Michigan did send a record 18 players to the 2024 NFL Combine, but I think the Wolverines either tie or come up just short of the Bulldogs’ record. 

LSU, Georgia, Alabama, Washington, Texas and Penn State all have multiple players selected in 1st Round

The aforementioned six schools should dominate Day 1, with LSU, Georgia and Washington all producing potentially three picks. Texas and Penn State are potential swing teams here, as it’s not a given that AD Mitchell or Xavier Worthy come off the board Thursday. Same for Nittany Lions pass rusher Chop Robinson. 

There will be at least seven trades in the 1st Round

A year ago, six picks changed hands on Day 1 — including three trades inside the Top 10 picks. Over the last five years, there have been 28 trades involving 1st Round selections. 

With the combination of several QB-needy teams not in the Top 5 (New York, Minnesota, Denver, Oakland) coupled with typical movers and shakers like Arizona, Philly, Chicago and Jacksonville, I’m expecting a crazy night of trades. 

At least that’s what I’m rooting for anyway.