2024 NFL Draft: Trades, free agency shake up new NFL.com mock draft, first round predictions

For this year’s NFL Draft, it’s still all about the quarterbacks and getting more that way every day. However, Bucky Brooks, who studies these trends for NFL.com, scrambled the order, sending one elite QB out of the top 10.

Yes, Brooks has Caleb Willams going No. 1 to the Bears. The consensus for Williams as the top selection is solidifying, a week after he conducted his Pro Day in Los Angeles. Here’s what’s new. Brooks moved Jayden Daniels, the reigning Heisman winner, to No. 2, with Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy going third to the Patriots. But what about Drake Maye? The North Carolina Tar Heel falls all the way to 11th, with the Vikings. Minnesota would certainly celebrate landing Maye, since they’re looking for a replacement for Kirk Cousins.

Brooks’ mock is heavy on offense. it’s going to be that kind of NFL Draft. There’s only one defender amongst the top 10 picks and a dozen overall, with most of those coming in the final half of the first round. So let’s take a look.

1. Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams QB USC

The Bears sent a big group to Los Angeles to check out Williams in person. They’d already tipped their hand about their plans for No. 1 when Chicago sent Justin Fields to the Steelers in return for a conditional sixth-round pick.

The Bears also started signing players to help a rookie quarterback, including Keenan Allen. Brooks said “Williams steps into an upgraded offensive lineup that should enable him to flourish as a starter from Day 1.”

2. Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels QB LSU

Daniels is another hot name. He went through his own Pro Day, Wednesday, in Baton Rouge. Scouts love his play-making abilities. The Commanders, like the Bears, also made room for a rookie quarterback when they traded Sam Howell to the Seahawks.

“Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s history working with Kyler Murray and other athletic quarterbacks could make Daniels the perfect fit for the Commanders’ new offense,” Brooks said. The analyst is consistent. He had Daniels going No. 2 in the draft before the NFL Combine.

3. New England Patriots J.J. McCarthy QB Michigan

McCarthy definitely is the fastest rising prospect in the NFL Draft. A month ago, Brooks had him going to the Broncos at No. 12. A number of mock drafts now list McCarthy, who led the Wolverines to the national championship, now have the quarterback amongst the top five picks.

Brooks has his reasons. He refers to McCarthy as the best QB in Michigan history. (That would be ahead of Tom Brady). And he writes “despite his inexperience as a passer, McCarthy’s athleticism, intangibles and winning pedigree could fit Jerod Mayo’s profile for a QB1.”

4. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr WR Ohio State

Harrison, the former Buckeye star, breaks up the quarterback party, with Brooks believing the Cardinals will go with a receiver at pick No. 4. There are some analysts who believe Arizona will trade out of the pick. Others believe the Cardinals may be looking to trade Murray.

Brooks sees Harrison and Murray making beautiful plays together. “The silky-smooth pass catcher is the WR1 Kyler Murray needs to take the Cardinals’ offense to another level,” the NFL Draft analyst wrote.

5. Los Angeles Chargers: Joe Alt OT Notre Dame

And now we come to the first big guy off the board. Although there isn’t a rock solid consensus just yet on the first offensive tackle off the board, Brooks believes it will be Alt, the athletic lineman from Notre Dame. However, there is a consensus that new coach Jim Harbaugh will choose an offensive lineman at No. 5.

“Jim Harbaugh’s commitment to the running game could make the offensive line a priority in the draft,” Brooks wrote. “Alt is a technician with the toughness and tenacity that the coach covets in his front-line players. “

6. New York Giants: Malik Nabers WR LSU

And now we’re back to the offensive skill guys. Nabers is one to watch, with some draft chatter suggesting he could overtake Harrison as the top wideout off the board. Like he did a month ago, Brooks keeps Nabers at six for the Giants.

“If the Giants remain committed to Daniel Jones, they must add more explosive playmakers to the lineup,” Brooks said. “Nabers is a catch-and-run specialist who can score from anywhere on the field.”

7. Tennessee Titans: Olu Fashanu OT Penn State

The Titans are remaking their offense under new coach Brian Callahan. Brooks thinks they’ll go offensive tackle with their top pick. He predicted the same a month ago, with Fashanu.

“The Titans need to add an offensive tackle to complete the offseason makeover that will help Will Levis shine as a QB1.” Of course, Levis is the quarterback Tennessee got in last year’s second round.

8. Atlanta Falcons: Dallas Turner Edge Alabama

Turner will be a lonely defender for maybe the first hour or so of the NFL Draft. Teams still want a ferocious pass rusher. And the top edge rusher in this draft seems to be Dallas Turner. Atlanta had been in need of a quarterback, but they went veteran with Kirk Cousins rather than selecting a rookie.

“After getting his franchise quarterback in free agency, (coach) Raheem Morris could prioritize landing an impact edge defender on draft day,” Brooks said. “Turner’s size, speed and production should make him a Day 1 starter on defense.”

9. Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze WR Washington

Odunze is the third receiver off the board, allowing the wideouts to match the quarterbacks. Brooks likened the former Washington star to a Ja’Marr Chase type playmaker in his first mock draft. That’s when he had him going two spots earlier to the Titans. Instead, he gifts him to Caleb Williams.

“General manager Ryan Poles could add another weapon to the offense to help his rookie quarterback feel more comfortable as a first-year starter,” Brooks said. “A rugged playmaker with a high football IQ and positional flexibility, Odunze is a perfect WR3 to partner with a couple of veteran pass catchers (Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore) on the perimeter.”

10. New York Jets: Brock Bowers TE Georgia

Georgia’s best player is getting some top 10 love, at least from Brooks. And since high quality tight ends are in such demands, the Jets pluck Bowers off the board.

Brooks sees Bowers as the best option for quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who missed almost all of last season. “With the team in win-now mode and Aaron Rodgers nearing the end of his career, the Jets could opt to take a pass catcher who can dominate the middle of the field. “

Brooks’ NFL Draft picks for Nos. 11-32

11. Minnesota Vikings: Drake Maye QB North Carolina
12. Denver Broncos: Jared Verse Edge Florida State
13. Las Vegas Raiders: Taliese Fuaga OT Oregon State
14. New Orleans Saints: JC Latham OT Alabama
15. Indianapolis Colts: Quinyon Mitchell CB Toledo
16. Seattle Seahawks: Troy Fautanu OL Washington
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Terrion Arnold CB Alabama
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Brian Thomas WR LSU
19. Los Angeles Rams: Byron Murphy II DT Texas
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Amarius Mims OT Georgia
21. Miami Dolphins: Jackson Powers-Johnson IOL Oregon
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Alabama
23. Minnesota Vikings: Cooper DeJean DB Iowa
24. Dallas Cowboys: Graham Barton OL Duke
25. Green Bay Packers: Payton Wilson LB N.C. State
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Laiatu Latu Edge UCLA
27. Arizona Cardinals: Darius Robinson Edge Missouri
28. Buffalo Bills: Jer’Zhan Newton DT Illinois
29. Detroit Lions: Chop Robinson Edge Penn State
30. Baltimore Ravens: Tyler Guyton OL Oklahoma
31. San Francisco 49ers: Nate Wiggins CB Clemson
32. Kansas City Chiefs Kamari Lassiter CB Georgia

The first round of the NFL Draft goes live from Detroit on April 25. Rounds two and three are April 26. The draft finishes the following day with rounds four through seven. If you’d like to read all of Brooks’ keen analysis, click it here. You can follow all of On3’s NFL Draft coverage here.