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2025 Florida Football Win Totals: Odds released for pivotal season under Billy Napier

On3 imageby:Sam Gillenwater•about 10 hours•

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Florida-Gators-helmet
Two helmets rest on Steve Spurrier-Florida Field before the start of the Orange and Blue game at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, April 13, 2024. [Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun]

The win total for next fall in Gainesville has Florida just fighting for a bowl berth.

Per the lines at FanDuel, the Gators have a win total set at 6.5 wins. Over 6.5 wins is set at odds of (-154) while Under 6.5 wins is set at (+120). That total, for reference, would be two to three wins fewer than the other five totals released in the SEC with Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee in a three-way tie at 9.5 while Alabama and LSU are in a tie at 8.5.

This comes heading into the fourth season for Billy Napier at Florida. Over that three-year tenure, the program has won an average of exactly six regular-season games per season with him right at 19-19 overall. That includes this past season where they were able to turn a poor start where a firing could have come into a competitive end to the year where they won four of their final six, including a pair of upsets over LSU and Ole Miss.

Still, that range of only five to seven wins just likely won’t be good enough this season in The Swamp.

Much of this is going to come down to the development as the full-time starter for DJ Lagway. Lagway, who played in every game as a true freshman and started the final six, completed 59.9% of his throws for 1,915 yards, a dozen touchdowns, and nine picks. The Gators will then pair him with several returning contributors, namely on the offensive line and room of running backs, along with the No. 11 class in On3’s 2025 Industry Team Recruiting Rankings.

However, Florida also lost a dozen more players than they gained in the NCAA Transfer Portal, namely Kelby Collins (Alabama) and Ja’Keem Jackson (LSU).

The Gators will also once again be playing a difficult slate in ’25. They will once again play Miami and Florida State in in-state matchups in the non-conference. Then, their conference schedule from last season will flip with games against Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas, and Texas A&M. They will get to host the Volunteers and Longhorns but will have to make return trips to Athens, Baton Rouge, Oxford, and College Station.

Florida, and, really, Napier himself, is in need of the team’s first season exceeding this total, if not more than exceeding it, since 2020. That’ll then determine what the future of this tenure and the program will look like beyond 2025.