2025 NBA Draft mailbag: Lottery value, mid-major stars, second-round fliers

The 2025 NBA Draft is less than three weeks away now, with plenty left to play out from the prospects and franchises before the commissioner takes the podium. However, with an unprecedented low number of early entries, there is plenty intrigue about the possibilities.

As questions build over potential late risers, the last deadline to solidify NBA Draft boards remains ahead. International prospects must choose whether to remain in the class or leave — whether for a contract overseas or college basketball — by June 15.

Meanwhile, all 30 NBA franchises have decisions to make on their roster before settling on the best fit. Multiple blockbuster trades are on the horizon this offseason, potentially shifting the teams picking from the Top Five all the way down through the second round.

After seeking the top questions on the mind of NBA fans and college basketball fans alike, here are the answers to come of the most intriguing topics.

Q: How good is Dylan Harper in relation to Cooper Flagg, Ace Bailey and VJ Edgecombe?

We will start at the top of the draft and try to work our way down. With Cooper Flagg in a tier of his own, that means breaking down Dylan Harper against the field.

While there are certain markers which help compare players as prospects across draft classes, it can be difficult to set iron-clad tiers which apply to every year equally. For that reason, I primarily tier players within their class, with the context of past draft classes in mind. That places Flagg in Tier 1, and at least a half-tier break if not a whole, before Dylan Harper.

The gap between Dylan Harper and the next group of players, which also includes Tre Johnson at No. 3 on On3’s board, is a full tier. To put the caliber of prospect in context with past drafts, he would grade somewhere just below Cade Cunningham when he went No. 1 in 2021. Johnson, Ace Bailey and VJ Edgecombe fall closer to Jalen Green or Jalen Suggs from the same class.

Q: Should the 76ers take Ace Bailey or VJ Edgecombe?

The simple answer is neither. The Philadelphia 76ers are in win-now mode as Joel Embiid‘s health issues now run into age concerns. Swapping the pick for veteran wing players would be the best play.

However, trading out of the Top Five in the NBA Draft is not always easy. So they must do their due diligence on both prospects, along with Tre Johnson and potentially Duke co-stars Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach.

Between the two mentioned, Ace Bailey is perhaps the better fit, giving the team another scoring option on the wing, where he can slowly work into the self-creation while benefitting from the gravity of Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid around him. On the other hand, there are concerns about shot creation and scalability as a young player on a veteran team.

VJ Edgecombe fits well as a perimeter defender with offensive upside, something he could grow into after spending his early seasons as a complementary role player beside the current core. The greatest concern here is the positional fit, with second-year guard Jared McCain looking like the top rookie before his injury.

Q: Is there a Damian Lillard in this draft class? (A mid-major guys that ends up being a great pro)

Thank you for the qualifier. After all, Damian Lillard is a seven-time All-NBA player who made the NBA’s 75th Anniversary team. He is the gold standard for mid-major prospects, and without one projected inside the Top Five picks, it is highly unlikely one reaches those heights.

The top mid-major prospects in this class are all lumped together between No. 14 and No. 18 on my board. Cedric Coward — yes, he qualifies after Washington State played in the WCC last season, and he did come from Eastern Washington before that — along with Rasheer Fleming and Nique Clifford.

While none of them have much All-Star upside, they all project as role players who can contribute to NBA success, with Coward leading the way. His size and length pair well with athleticism to form the 3-and-D prospect all contending teams are looking for on the wing. Fleming is more of a power forward, but combines the same scalable 3-and-D traits which could keep him in the league for over a decade. Clifford brings incredibly well-rounded stats from his college career, but a drastic spike in 3-point success leaves him just a bit more to prove than the others.

PS: It is cheating, but in the transfer portal world, maybe the Damian Lillard story looks different anyway, so I will name Walter Clayton. He might have the most star upside of any former mid-major player given his offensive firepower.

Q: Where does Nolan Traore fall? No one can decided if he’s a lottery pick or late first round.

Nolan Traore is one of the most interesting international prospects to track. He spiked into the Top Five last summer when he had great international success for France, but saw his stock shift back into the lottery after some struggles in the league.

Like everyone, I moved him down the board throughout the season, but never had him outside the lottery conversation. He has proved his upside against prospects in his age group, and is playing the toughest position to adjust from one level to the next.

Just look at the top point guards in past draft classes, Cade Cunningham and Dyson Daniels recently found their stride, while Scoot Henderson and Reed Sheppard are still finding their footing as NBA facilitators. The fact of the matter is, most point guards take time to adjust. For that reason, when there is a lack of elite prospects at the position, some teams will shy away with their top assets. Risking the value not kicking in until they reach their second team looms.

In this draft class, that is compounded by a lack of teams needing point guard help. The Rockets, Trail Blazers, Bulls, Hawks, Spurs and Thunder are all set at the position. It is probably not the Raptors biggest need either. With Traore, Kasparas Jakucionis, Egor Demin and Jeremiah Fears all projected in this range — with Walter Clayton in the mix, some will certainly fall deeper into the first round.

Q: Am I missing something on Jase Richardson? I’m honestly not impressed.

Jase Richardson became a favorite in the analytics community based on his efficiency, and the undeniable level of success Michigan State reached when he entered the starting lineup. He is no homerun prospect though, coming in undersized for a shooting guard, which is likely a better fit than point guard.

He averaged 12.1 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.9 assists this season on 49.3-41.2-83.6 splits. The analytics had him at a 20.7 PER with 4.8 win shares and a 31.7 NET rating.

Even undersized, part of his value comes in how unspectacular things look. Richardson has impacted winning without being the primary focus on either end of the floor. That is something that is often times undervalued in the draft beyond the top picks. Increasing the hit rate of role players is often a better bet at No. 20 than swinging for the boom-or-bust guys others passed on.

Quick hitters

Q: Which players are you higher on than the consensus?

The answer to this question over the past several months was probably Tre Johnson, who remains No. 3 on my board, but the consensus seems to have caught up that he is at least on an even playing field with Ace Bailey and VJ Edgecombe.

Now, in the first round, I find myself high on Collin Murray-Boyles and Danny Wolf for complete opposite reasons. The defensive value of Murray-Boyles is plenty for me to bet on him to become a valuable role player with upside to learn the corner 3-point shot like many non-shooters before him in the NBA. Meanwhile, Wolf’s ability to play next to a true center adds immense value in a league which has leaned heavy into two-big lineups where one is able to score and facilitate at the top of the key.

In the second round, I remain a fan of Rocco Zikarsky‘s long-term upside and Sion James‘ ability to contribute to a winning rotation. Chucky Hepburn and Brooks Barnhizer have become a few defense-first two-way options I value. More on the latter below.

Q: Which players are you lower on than the consensus?

This answer remains consistent from the start of the season to the finish, Jeremiah Fears simply does not fit on my board where he seems to in the consensus. While he has plenty upside, there is a long, long runway needed for him to reach his potential. Too often during his freshman season, even his “productive” games in the box score were marred by long runs of inefficiency. Garbage time buckets often made the highlight reel, showing his potential, but not his overall performance.

As I mentioned above, the point guard position is difficult to master in the NBA. If a player looks like they are going to take most of — if not all — their rookie deal to figure things out at a high level, it is hard to invest valuable draft capital.

Others I have slotted further down include the dependable, but limited center options like Ryan Kalkbrenner and Vlad Goldin. They could easily serve as a third big for an extended time, but are unlikely to ever crack a playoff rotation.

Q: What should the Bulls do at No. 12?

The quick answer: rebuild! It is time for the Chicago Bulls to take a longer view of their franchise after parting ways with several veterans. More should also be on the way out.

If the team trades off Nikola Vucevic, Derik Queen is a ready-made replacement at center. This is an upside spot too, so Noa Essengue or Jeremiah Fears would have to enter the conversation regardless of position. If they play it safe, there are plenty wings available in this range worth adding to the rotation.

Q: 2nd round fliers who might be appealing for the Cavaliers? Why should they consider drafting Amari Williams?

Amari Williams is certainly a name to watch at No. 49 or No. 58, especially on a team like the Cleveland Cavaliers which is spending big on interior starters. I currently have Williams at No. 69 on my board, well within range to hear his name called or pick up a two-way deal.

Others players to watch include Max Shulga, Javon Small and Tamar Bates — all potential replacements for Ty Jerome or Sam Merrill if they exit in free agency. Finding a starting-caliber wing that late is unlikely, but Jalon Moore, Micah Peavy and Brice Williams all make sense here too.

Q: Who is Brooks Barnhizer? You had him in your last mock draft.

Brooks Barnhizer is a fringe prospect who did not receive an NBA Draft Combine invite, signaling that he is not currently viewed among the most likely players to be drafted. However, for teams which value defensive versatility and college production, this is the type of two-way player worth securing before he can negotiate on the open market as an undrafted free agent.

Over the past two seasons, he averaged 15.5 points, 7.9 rebounds and 3.2 assists on 42.3-31.8-76.5 splits. The impressive side of his game, he averages 0.9 blocks and 2.0 steals for a 3.6 defensive box plus-minus and a defensive rating under 100. Over that time his PER is 20.2.