Alabama State vs. Auburn odds: Current line, win probability, final score prediction, how to watch NCAA Tournament

It’s always possible that a 16 seed can upset one of the top seeds in the NCAA Tournament. However, it’s still extremely rare and with that, the Alabama State Hornets know they have their task cut out for them against the Auburn Tigers in the Round of 64.

Auburn comes into this game with a 28-5 record overall and a 15-3 record in SEC play. That was good for a first place regular season finish, even if they weren’t able to win the conference tournament. Across the way, Alabama State won the SWAC Tournament and then a First Four matchup to make it to this point. Amid what has been a magical run so far, they’re looking to make history.

Unsurprisingly, Auburn enters the game as a massive favorite. With that in mind, here’s a look at the current line, win probability, final score prediction, and how to watch the Tigers take on the Hornets.

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Odds for Alabama State vs. Auburn

Coming into the game, Auburn is a 31.5-point favorite over Alabama State, per FanDuel. The Tigers are also currently listed at -100000 for the moneyline, right now, while the Hornets are sitting at +7000.

The point total for the game is currently set at 150.5 points. The Tigers failed to go over that number in their last time out but had done so in their six previous outings. Alabama State, meanwhile, has gone under that number in three straight games.

Final score predictions for Alabama State vs. Auburn

BPI Predicted winner: Auburn
BPI Predicted point differential: 30.6
BPI Win probability (for AU): 99.3 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 45.7

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. Notably, it agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. BPI is projecting a point differential of 30.6 points in Auburn’s favor. It also gives the Tigers a 99.3 percent chance to win the game over the Hornets.

BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 45.7, which is the 16th-best quality score of the day on Thursday. That also makes it the worst quality score of the day, according to BPI.

KenPom Predicted final score: Auburn 90, Alabama State 60
KenPom Win probability (for AU): 99.7 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For this game between Auburn and Alabama State, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas, projecting the Tigers to win by 30 points. Notably, it also gives a point total of 150 points for the game. That’s slightly below the Vegas point total.

How to watch Alabama State vs. Auburn

Time: 2:50 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Rupp Arena — Lexington, Kentucky

Alabama State and Auburn are set to tip off at 2:50 p.m. EST. The game is going to be played at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky as a neutral site game. However, being an SEC venue, the Tigers do enter with some familiarity there.

For those who can’t make it to the game in person, it will of course be available on CBS. For a streaming option, FuboTV will also be available.

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