Alabama vs. LSU odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Tide, Tigers

Saturday’s SEC slate will be kicked off with an early battle between Mark Sears and No. 16 Alabama and the LSU Tigers.

The Crimson Tide’s four-game win streak was snapped via a loss at Auburn during the week, while LSU is coming off a midweek 20-point loss to Tennessee as well. Despite the loss, Alabama heads into Saturday leading a three-way tie for first place between South Carolina and Auburn, which means there’s no margin of error for the Crimson Tide against LSU.

This will be the second time these two teams have faced off this season. The first meeting saw Alabama defeated LSU 85-76 in Tuscaloosa on Jan. 27.

Odds for LSU vs. Alabama

Coming into the game, Alabama is a 6.5-point favorite over LSU, per FanDuel Sportsbook. The Crimson Tide are currently listed at -275 for the moneyline as of Saturday morning, while the Tigers are sitting at +225. 

The point total for the game is set at 165.5 points. Alabama comes into the game averaging 89.5 points per game, which ranked second in the SEC behind Kentucky. Meanwhile, LSU averages 77.1 — sixth in the SEC heading into Saturday. 

Final score predictions for LSU vs. Alabama

BPI Predicted winner: Alabama
BPI Predicted point differential: 10.2
BPI Win probability (for Alabama): 81.1 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 78.3

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Heading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 10.2 points in Alabama’s favor. It also gives the Crimson Tide a 81.1 percent chance to win the game over the Tigers on the road.

BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 78.3, which ranks No. 20 in quality scores predicted for the day.

KenPom Predicted final score: Alabama 87, LSU 79
KenPom Win probability (for Alabama): 77 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For Saturday’s game between Alabama and LSU, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas’ consensus, projecting the Tigers to lose by roughly a 8-12 points.

How to watch LSU vs. Alabama

Time: Noon ET
Channel: ESPN, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Pete Maravich Assembly Center — Baton Rouge, Louisiana

The opening tip between the Crimson Tide and Tigers is scheduled for Noon ET and will air live on ESPN. It’s also going to be available to fans on streaming through FuboTV, which has an option for a free trial.