Alabama vs. Tennessee odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Tide, Vols

(Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports) Jan 20, 2024; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Volunteers guard Jordan Gainey (2) reacts after shooting a three-point shot against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the first half at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center.

Alabama is set to host Tennessee tonight in a game with massive SEC title implications, with both programs currently sharing a one-game lead atop the league standings.

The two teams met earlier this year in Knoxville, Tenn., with Tennessee taking that contest convincingly by a 91-71 score. Alabama will be looking to even the series and take a major step toward winning the SEC crown.

The game is in primetime on ESPN, so both teams will have plenty of time to think about it today. And following College GameDay’s appearance in town, the crowd should be plenty pumped to welcome the Volunteers. Let’s take a look at how the game breaks down below.

Odds for Alabama vs. Tennessee

Coming into the game, Alabama is a 3.5-point favorite over Tennessee, per FanDuel. The Crimson Tide are also currently listed at -170 for the moneyline, right now, while the Volunteers are sitting at +140.

The point total for the game is currently set at 170.5 points. When the two teams met in Tennessee earlier this year, they combined to score 162 points.

Final score predictions for Alabama vs. Tennessee

BPI Predicted winner: Alabama
BPI Predicted point differential: 3.9
BPI Win probability (for Alabama): 63.5%
BPI Matchup Quality: 94.2

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Leading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 3.9 points in Alabama’s favor. It also gives the Crimson Tide a 63.5% chance to win the game over the Volunteers.

BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 94.2, which is the second-best quality score of the day.

KenPom Predicted final score: Alabama 85, Tennessee 83
KenPom Win probability (for Alabama): 57%

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For this game between Alabama and Tennessee, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas, projecting the Crimson Tide to win by two.

How to watch Alabama vs. Tennessee

Time: 8 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Tuscaloosa, Ala.

Alabama and Tennessee are set to tip off at 8 p.m. ET. The game will be played at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, Ala. ESPN’s College GameDay will be on hand before the game to break down the day’s basketball action.

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For fans wanting to catch the game on TV, it will be broadcast nationally on ESPN. It’s also going to be available to fans on streaming through FuboTV, which does have an option for a free trial.