Arizona vs. Dayton odds: Win probability, final score prediction in NCAA Tournament

Set to battle for a spot in the Sweet 16, Arizona and Dayton got to this point in two vastly different ways. For Arizona, it was a blowout win over 15-seed Long Beach State to advance to the second round. For Dayton, it was a miraculous comeback in a win over Nevada to even get to this point.

The Flyers trailed by as many as 16 points with just over seven minutes to play against Nevada, and it looked like their season would come to an end. But Dayton finished the game on a 23-4 run to pull off the comeback and advance.

Now, Dayton gets to play David against Goliath, a.k.a., Arizona. The Wildcats are a No. 2 seed in this region and have their sights set on a national championship.

Odds for Arizona vs. Dayton

According to FanDuel as of the time of this publishing, Arizona sits as a 9.5-point favorite over Dayton. The Wildcats are -480 on the moneyline, with the Flyers priced at +360.

The point total for the game is sitting at 149.5 points. Dayton did not reach that mark in the first round, landing at 123, while Arizona’s first round game saw 150 points scored.

Final score predictions for Arizona vs. Dayton
BPI predicted winner: Arizona
BPI predicted point differential: 10.0
BPI win probability: 82.2%
BPI matchup quality: 83.1

If you’re basing your bets solely on ESPN’s BPI, it would appear Arizona is the side to take, but not by a significant margin. If a 10-point victory does take place as it projects, Wildcat backers would cash their tickets, but not without a sweat.

Because of the seeding gap — 2 vs. 7 — there are a few games that are likely to be considered more intriguing on this slate. This game is currently the fourth-highest matchup quality of the day with its 83.1 rating.

KenPom Predicted final score: Arizona 79, Dayton 73
KenPom win probability: Arizona, 72%

Another predictive system for college basketball fans, KenPom is used to project how strong certain teams are across the sport. It would appear that KenPom and BPI are on the same page with this game, both picking Arizona to win the game.

However, those who follow KenPom closer might find themselves backing the Flyers. A projected six-point win would allow Dayton bettors to hit the pay window with their tickets.

How to watch Arizona vs. Dayton

Time: 12:45 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS, Prime Video (streaming)
Location: Delta Center — Salt Lake City, Utah

Most college basketball fans will be glued to their TVs to help get another exciting day of basketball rolling. The slate of games is about to shrink, as the field of the NCAA Tournament gets smaller. But as the field gets smaller, the games get more intense and we get closer to crowning a national champion.

You can watch the tournament live on Prime Video, add on your favorite channels and watch at home or on your phone and laptop at work!

If Arizona wins this game, it will take one more step on getting closer to the national championship goals it had entering the season. But if it is Dayton that is victorious, perhaps a Cinderella run could lie ahead.