Arkansas vs. Ole Miss odds: Current line, win probability, final score prediction, how to watch SEC Tournament

The eight-nine game in the SEC Tournament will be the first game of four to tip off in Music City on Thursday. With that, No. 8 Ole Miss vs. No. 9 Arkansas will be for a quarterfinal spot tomorrow to play against the top seed in the tournament.

Ole Miss (21-10, 10-8) slid to the eighth seed in the conference standings by the end of the regular season after losing four of six to finish. Still, the Rebels have quality wins, including multiple in the league at Alabama as well as over Kentucky and Tennessee. They’ll now look to add to one of their better records in recent history early this afternoon in this second-round matchup.

Arkansas (20-12, 8-10) is then coming off of a 72-68 win over the last seed in the league in South Carolina. They led by as much as 20 in the second half before a 28-9 run by the Gamecocks with the Razorbacks scoring just two points over nearly a twelve-minute stretch. The ‘Hogs closed it out over the final three minutes, though, behind duos in their backcourt with DJ Wagner (13 points, six assists) and Johnell Davis (14 points, three steals) and in their frontcourt with Trevon Brazile (16 points, seven rebounds, four steals) and Jonas Aidoo (14 points, 11 rebounds).

For reference, Ole Miss won 73-66 over Arkansas in Fayetteville back on January 8th. The Razorbacks led early but the Rebels closed that margin and then led by two to three possessions for the rest of the second half in the seven-point win. They were led that day by solid outings from Malik Dia (21 points, eight rebounds) and Sean Pedulla (16 points) as well as a defensive effort on the road in Bud Walton Arena.

It’s also of note that the ‘Hogs will continue to be without Adou Thiero (15.6 points (54.8% FG), 6.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.7 steals) and Boogie Fland (15.1 points, 5.7 assists, 1.5 steals). While it’s come up when or if either will return to the team for this postseason, Thiero is still dealing with a hyper-extended knee that has sidelined him the past five games while Fland has not played since mid-January with a season-ending hand injury.

Odds for Arkansas vs. Ole Miss

Per the latest odds at FanDuel, Ole Miss is a 3.5-point favorite (-120) today over Arkansas. That has the Razorbacks at (+152) on the moneyline as an underdog of just over a possession

The over-under for the game is then at a total of 144.5 points. The under is slightly favored at (-105) with this game being between two of the better defenses in the SEC.

Final score predictions for Arkansas vs. Ole Miss

BPI Predicted Winner: Ole Miss
BPI Predicted Point Differential: 2.1
BPI Win Probability (for Ole Miss): 58.2%
BPI Matchup Quality: 82.8

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) also has Ole Miss slightly favored in this second-round game. It’s predicting a two-point margin for the Rebs with a win probability for them at 58.2%.

Per the matchup quality, this is the tenth-best game on the slate for Thursday of Champ Week. It’s then the lowest-rated of the four today behind No. 5 Texas A&M vs. No. 13 Texas, No. 7 Missouri vs. No. 10 Mississippi State, and No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 14 Oklahoma.

KenPom Predicted Final Score: Ole Miss 75, Arkansas 72
KenPom Win Probability (for Ole Miss): 61%

KenPom also had a similar prediction for this game. It projected a three-point win for the Rebels at a slightly higher win probability of 61%.

How to watch Arkansas vs. Ole Miss

Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
Channel: SEC Network
Location: Bridgestone Arena (Nashville, Tennessee)

This is a close matchup to start the schedule off today inside Bridgestone Arena. Now, with both set to now be in the field, all that matters will be advancing in this bracket with one to play tomorrow against No. 1 Auburn.