Arkansas vs. St. John's odds: Current line, win probability, final score prediction, how to watch in NCAA Tournament

The pod in Providence of the West Region in the NCAA Tournament included four teams with three being coached by Hall of Famers. Now, two of those will play in the Round of 32 with No. 2 St. John’s vs. No. 10 Arkansas setting up the latest, and possibly final, meeting between Rick Pitino and John Calipari.

St. John’s (31-4) advanced during the opening night of the tournament with an 83-53 win over No. 15 Omaha. The Red Storm had a slow first half but put up a blowout in the second by doubling up the Mavericks as they shot 51.4% FG and 42.1% 3PT while holding that opponent under 21% shooting in both. That extended one of their best seasons in school history with their first win in the bracket in a decade as they’ll now try to be in the second weekend for the first time in this century.

Arkansas (21-13) also advanced on day one with a 79-72 win over No. 10 Kansas. The Razorbacks nearly cost themselves during a second-half comeback by the Jayhawks. Still, the ‘Hogs closed it out over the final three minutes and, with that, have turned this debut season into a success having won ten of sixteen and now moving on in the field with a chance at an upset to be in the second weekend.

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Odds for Arkansas vs. St. John’s

Per the latest odds at FanDuel, St. John’s is a 6.5-point favorite over Arkansas. That has the Razorbacks at (+245) on the moneyline as an underdog in this one.

The over-under is then at a total of 143.5 points. The under is slightly favored at (-105) with this game being between two teams who are more defensive-minded, especially the Red Storm with one of the best defenses in the sport.

Final score predictions for Arkansas vs. St. John’s

BPI Predicted Winner: St. John’s
BPI Predicted Point Differential: 5.7
BPI Win Probability (for St. John’s): 71.3%
BPI Matchup Quality: 84.9

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) is favoring St. John’s similarly for this game. It has the Red Storm winning by just under six points at a win probability of 71.3%.

Matchup quality then has this as the sixth-best game out of eight total for the Round of 32 on Saturday. It’s ahead of only No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 12 McNeese State and the other game in their own region between No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 Drake.

KenPom Predicted Final Score: St. John’s 73, Arkansas 67
KenPom Win Probability (for St. John’s): 72%

KenPom is also projecting an almost identical type of outcome in favor of St. John’s. Its prediction is a six-point win for the Red Storm with their win probability at 72%.

How to watch Arkansas vs. St. John’s

Time: 2:40 p.m. EST on Saturday (March 22nd)
Channel: CBS
Location: Amica Mutual Pavilion (Providence, Rhode Island)

St. John’s has an expected advantage tomorrow as the higher seed with a two-possession spread in these specific metrics. Still, with Pitino vs. Calipari, it’s sure to be a game with the winner to advance to the Sweet 16.

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