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Arkansas vs. Texas Tech odds: Current line, win probability, final score prediction, how to watch NCAA Tournament

On3 imageby:Dan Morrison03/23/25

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Grant McCasland, Texas Tech, John Calipari, Arkansas
Grant McCasland, Texas Tech, John Calipari, Arkansas - © Kirby Lee-Imagn Images & © Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Just like that, the NCAA Tournament field has been cut down to 16 schools and fans are getting treated to some excellent matchups. That, notably, includes, the Arkansas Razorbacks getting set to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Sweet Sixteen.

This comes after Arkansas has made an excellent run in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament as a 10-seed. After taking on Kansas, Arkansas was rewarded with a game against two-seed St. John’s. It ended up being a defensive battle but one where the Razorbacks could pull off an upset. Texas Tech, meanwhile, has cruised to a pair of wins against UNCW and Drake.

Ahead of this Sweet Sixteen game, here’s a look at the odds, current line, win probability, and final score prediction for Arkansas vs. Texas Tech. On top of that, tip-off time and how to watch the game are both now available.

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Odds for Arkansas vs. Texas Tech

Coming into the game, Texas Tech is a 5.5-point favorite over Arkansas, per FanDuel. The Red Raiders are also currently listed at -230 for the moneyline right now, while the Razorbacks are sitting at +188.

The point total for the game is currently set at 147.5 points. In their first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, both Texas Tech and Arkansas have been over that number once and below it once.

Final score predictions for Arkansas vs. Texas Tech

BPI Predicted winner: Texas Tech
BPI Predicted point differential: 6.1
BPI Win probability (for Red Raiders): 72.7%
BPI Matchup Quality: 85.3

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Leading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 6.1 points in Texas Tech’s favor. It also gives the Red Raiders a 72.7% chance to win the game over the Razorbacks.

BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 85.3. That makes it one of several exciting matchups in the Sweet Sixteen.

KenPom Predicted final score: Texas Tech 77, Arkansas 71
KenPom Win probability (for Texas Tech): 72%

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For this game between Texas Tech and Arkansas, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas, projecting the Red Raiders win by about six points.

How to watch Arkansas vs. Texas Tech

Time: 10:09 p.m. ET/9:09 p.m. CT
Channel: TBS/TruTV
Location: Chase Center | San Francisco, CA

The Arkansas Razorbacks and Texas Tech Red Raiders are set to tip off at 10:09 p.m. ET. It will be played at Chase Center in San Francisco, pitting a pair of power conference opponents in the Sweet Sixteen. For fans who can’t make the game, it will be available on TBS and TruTV.

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