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Auburn vs. Florida odds: Win probability, final score prediction in SEC Tournament championship

IMG_0985by:Griffin McVeigh•03/17/24•

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Auburn University Athletics Department

While all eyes will be on the selection show on Sunday evening, there are still a few automatic bids to give out. One of them is in Nashville, with the SEC Tournament championship on the line between the Auburn Tigers and Florida Gators.

Bruce Pearl told his team they came to Bridgestone Arena to win the tournament and they are just one win away from doing so. Auburn has taken down South Carolina and Mississippi State along the way after finishing fourth in the regular season standings.

Florida did not have the luxury of the double-bye, playing one more game in Nashville than Auburn. Beating Georgia propelled them into the quarterfinals against Alabama, scoring over 100 points for the fourth time this season. Texas A&M could not control the Gators either in a great semifinal game.

Now, we are onto the championship game, and based on results throughout the week, an incredible matchup is ahead of us.

Odds for Auburn Tigers vs. Florida Gators

Auburn opened as a 5.5-point favorite in the SEC Tournament championship game, according to FanDuel. The over-under opened at 155.5. If you are looking to bet the money line, the Tigers are at -239, while the Gators sit at +190.

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We do have a previous data point between these two teams, meeting on Feb. 10 in Gainesville. Florida walked away with a 16-point victory, 81-65. Auburn will be looking for revenge while Todd Golden will want a similar type of game just over a month later.

Final score predictions for Auburn vs. Florida

KenPom predicted final score: Auburn 84, Florida 77
KenPom win probability (for Auburn): 74%

Like FanDuel, KenPom also gives the edge to Auburn, predicting the Tigers to get an 84-77 victory in the SEC Tournament semifinals. They also have a 74% chance of winning the matchup, according to KenPom’s projections.

In addition, Auburn will enter Sunday as the higher-rated team in the overall KenPom rankings, checking in at No. 4 as of Saturday evening. Florida, meanwhile, came in at No. 29. The metrics certainly favor Auburn but Florida has proven to get hot on the offensive end the past two nights.

How to watch Auburn vs. Florida

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Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Nashville, Tenn.