Baylor vs. Mississippi State odds: Current line, win probability, final score prediction, how to watch in NCAA Tournament

The 8/9 matchups are among the most interesting in the entire field in the NCAA Tournament. That can be said for the game between No. 8 Mississippi State and No. 9 Baylor on Friday in Raleigh.

Mississippi State (21-12) was one of a record-setting overall total of berths out of the SEC. The Bulldogs were in the half of the league that finished with a losing mark, although that’s not a criticism. Still, State has balance on both sides of the ball with multiple versatile guards and wings – with it actually leaning more offensively this year led by Josh Hubbard (18.7 ppg.).

Baylor (19-14) is then the final team to have made it out of the Big 12. The Bears did much of their work early with wins over Arkansas, St. John’s, and Kansas through February 1st but, since then, have posted a losing record to finish conference play at .500. Scott Drew has a decent team, though, with Norchad Omier (15.9 points (56.7% FG), 10.9 rebounds) surrounded by multiple guards, namely Jeremy Roach and VJ Edgecombe.

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Odds for Baylor vs. Mississippi State

Per the latest odds at FanDuel, Mississippi State is 1.5-point favorite (-104) over Baylor. That has the Bears at (-105) on the moneyline as the ever-so slight underdog of less than two points.

The over-under is then at a total of 144.5. That’s, again, coming from two teams that project better on the offensive end than they have defensively this season.

Final score predictions for Baylor vs. Mississippi State

BPI Predicted Winner: Baylor
BPI Predicted Point Differential: 2.9
BPI Win Probability (for Baylor): 61.4%
BPI Matchup Quality: 86.7

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) is leaning with Baylor in this first-round matchup. It has the Bears taking it by just under three points at a win probability of 61.4%.

The matchup quality is then the second-best of the schedule on Friday. It’s behind only No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 11 North Carolina in the South Region. It’s also the third-best of the entire two opening days of the event also behind No. 8 Louisville vs. No. 9 Creighton also in the South.

KenPom Predicted Final Score: Baylor 74, Mississippi State 73
KenPom Win Probability (for Baylor): 52%

KenPom is also projecting slightly for the Bears. It has a prediction for Baylor to win over Mississippi State by one with a win probability just above average at 52%.

How to watch Baylor vs. Mississippi State

Time: 12:15 p.m. EST on Friday (March 21st)
Channel: CBS
Location: Lenovo Center (Raleigh, North Carolina)

Mississippi State and Baylor are projected to play a close game to tip off the second day of the opening round of March Madness. The winner will then earn their chance to play against, and try to pull an upset on, No. 1 Duke in the East Region.

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