Best bets for Arizona-Kansas State, LSU-South Carolina, Notre Dame-Purdue, and Upset Du Jour

Well that wasn’t a whole lot of fun. 

My Week 2 best bets were ripe with pain — as I went 1-4 but did nail my Upset Du Jour. 

Clemson hit the over by halftime (I was on Under 53), while Oregon never stood a chance at covering 19.5 against Boise State. Utah was up 23-0 at halftime on Baylor — and then Cam Rising missed the rest of the game and the Utes were blanked in the second half of a 23-12 win (but not a -14 cover). 

Then there’s Iowa, which was up 13-0 at halftime and blew its largest lead in a decade in Iowa State’s 20-19 upset. Thankfully, the over came home with Tennessee–NC State and Illinois did indeed beat Kansas outright. 

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So, yea, Week 2 wasn’t exactly a barrel of laughs for your boy. But we march on! The season is still young. Week 3 is the perfect time to shovel our way out of an small early hole. 

Thus far, I’m 4-6 and 1-1 in my Upset Special Du Jour. 

Again, I’ll track the bets, and y’all can decide to fade or tail (for entertainment purposes only!) the picks. I finished the 2023 regular-season 35-28-2 ATS, and 6-7 in my weekly upset specials. 

Let’s dive into the Week 3 menu. 

(All point spreads courtesy of FanDuel).

No. 20 Arizona at No. 14 Kansas State (-7.5, O/U 59)

One of the Games of the Year in the Big 12? Nope, just a great non-conference game between two conference foes for some Friday Night Lights action. The primetime affair between a pair of Top 20 teams is essentially a resume game for both teams’ potential playoff hopes. 

Arizona’s offense was a machine in Week 1 (61 points, 11.0 yards per play) but then the Wildcats’ offensive line cratered against a Northern Arizona defense (10 pressures allowed) and put up just 22 points. Kansas State hasn’t been firing on all cylinders offensively, either, as Avery Johnson still doesn’t look quite comfortable in natural drop-back situations and the offensive line is still trying to establish some cohesiveness. K-State’s defense has been extremely aggressive this season, ranking No. 4 nationally in tackles for loss. 

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So naturally, I’m on the over! Noah Fifita dices up Cover-1 defenses and K-State’s weakness is in the secondary. Meanwhile, Arizona’s run defense got gashed for 210 yards by New Mexico, and this is a game Kansas State should unleash Johnson’s legs (along with the lethal two-headed tandem of DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards).

THE PICK: Over 59

Indiana at UCLA (+3, O/U 45.5)

The handicap here is rather simple: Better roster. Better quarterback. Better coach = road favorite in a stadium where home-field advantage doesn’t exist. Sure, the Bruins won DeShaun Foster’s debut as a head coach in Week 1 against Hawaii, but the 16-13 win wasn’t inspiring— particularly offensively (Ethan Garbers was 19 of 38 for 272 yards and two interceptions, run game had 71 yards on 20 attempts). 

The same cannot be said for Kurt Cignetti’s bunch at Indiana, which looks like a completely buttoned up operation through two games (outscoring opponents 108-10). Kurtis Rourke (448 yards, three touchdowns) has been fantastic, and the Hoosiers’ transfer portal defense already has 10 sacks and four takeaways. 

THE PICK: Indiana -3

UTSA at Texas (-35.5, O/U 56.5)

This is a classic letdown spot for the Longhorns after walloping Michigan 31-12 in the Big House last weekend. With a long SEC schedule ahead, this looks like the perfect weekend for Steve Sarkisian to keep the wagon in the garage. I initially leaned UTSA getting the five touchdowns, but the Roadrunners have been so bad thus far in 2024 that I have little confidence they can stay within the number even if Texas isn’t overly trying. 

How about a Week 1 Redux of Colorado State. Something like Texas 51-0 with Arch Manning playing the entire second half and throwing a couple of touchdowns.

THE PICK: Under 56.5

No. 16 LSU at South Carolina (+6.5, O/U 48.5)

The Gamecocks completely neutered Kentucky’s offense last weekend, sending Brock Vandagriff to the bench because the transfer portal quarterback was so alarmingly terrible. South Carolina has stars at all three levels (pass rushers Dylan Stewart and Kyle Kennard, linebacker Debo Williams and safety Nick Emmanwori) and they get the benefit of playing at home — with Sandstorm blasting — this weekend. 

But for all of Shane Beamer’s “I told you so’s” about LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina’s offense remains terrible on a down-by-down basis. They can hit a home run every now and then, but they had less than 300 yards against both Old Dominion and UK. LSU has some dudes on offense, and it’s a strength-on-strength matchup between the Tigers’ tackles and Carolina’s rushers (10 sacks already this season). This reeks of a classic SEC noon slobberknocker.

THE PICK: Under 48.5

No. 18 Notre Dame at Purdue (+9.5, O/U 45.5)

Speaking of a classic slugfest with two teams just walling on each other. Can I interest you in some Indiana on Indiana action? Notre Dame has just four touchdowns this season on 23 possessions. The Irish haven’t had a passing score or a completion over 20 yards. Their run game has explosiveness but is inefficient. We know Riley Leonard isn’t 100%, nor in any sort of rhythm with Notre Dame’s wideouts or OC Mike Denbrock. But then there’s the complete unknown with everything surrounding Purdue, which blanked Indiana State 49-0 in Week 1.

Ryan Waters’ team has had two weeks to prepare for the Shillelagh Trophy. Considering the Boilermakers play at a slow tempo, and want to run the ball + all of the Irish’s offensive question marks has me seeing this rivalry game turning into an ugly, field goal kicking contest. 

THE PICK: Under 45.5

Upset Special Du Jour

Washington State vs. Washington (-4.5, O/U 56.5)

The Apple Cup being played before apple-picking season doesn’t seem right, but I guess we should be thankful we still get this game at all, anyways. The Huskies have owned this series, winning nine of the last 10 meetings, including surviving a total scare in Pullman last season to stay undefeated. But this is a total different team, and new head coach Jedd Fisch is still working in 20-of-22 new starters, including quarterback Will Rogers. They’re 2-0 but hardly dominant. 

The Cougs are out for blood as part of the Pac-12 castoffs, and Jake Dickert’s team has already picked off a Core 4 team this season after blasting Texas Tech last weekend. John Mateer has been one of the most fun dual-threat quarterbacks in the sport in 2024 (13.0 yards per attempt with six passing touchdowns, a team-high 252 rushing yards at 10.9 per carry with two scores). This game is being played in Seattle — but in the Seahawks’ stadium, which actually benefits Wazzu fans who want to attend the game. The Cougs want this one more. 

THE PICK: Washington State