Can Chase Elliott return to being a dominant road course racer?

Prior to the Next Gen car debuting in 2022, Chase Elliott was arguably the best road course racer in all of NASCAR. The Most Popular Driver has not had great luck in the Next Gen era though.

Between 2018 and 2021, Chase Elliott won seven road course races and two pole awards. He was a fixture in the top-5 and top-10. In that same timeframe, Elliott would race 15 times on road courses and only finish outside of the top-10 three times

In those four seasons, Elliott had an average finish on road courses of 6.33. He would lead a total of 333 laps in those 15 races. Elliott led at least one lap in all but two of those races. Four of his seven wins were in a row stretching from 2019-2020.

Since 2022, things have changed. Whether it is the fact the new car handles better, levels out the playing field, or drivers have just been better on road courses in general, something has changed.

In the ten road course races Chase Elliott has been in since 2022 (Chicago Street not included), he has yet to win a race. He does have a couple of pole awards, though. But the finishes have not been nearly as consistent as they were prior. His average finish has dropped to 10.2 during that time, he has finished outside of the top-15 on three occasions, and he failed to lead a lap in three of those events as well, for a total of 144 laps led.

Already this season, Elliott and his No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports team have been hard-pressed to find speed. Only a single finish inside the top-10 this year, Elliott had to fight and claw for P8 last week at Bristol, finishing off the lead lap.

Chase Elliott has to flex his road course muscles again

At some point, Chase Elliott has to improve. He had flashes last season on the road courses. Sonoma he was P5, Chicago he was P3, at the Indy Road Course, he finished P2. However, I would argue he was never in contention for the win at any point during those races.

Martin Truex Jr. dominated Sonoma, Elliott had to flip pit strategy to finish P3 at Chicago (street course not road course but still), and Michael McDowell was dominant in his win at Indy. Good showings for Elliott, but not what they once were.

With seven career wins on road courses, it buys Elliott a lot of grace on this issue. His top-5 finishes in the last couple of years also lend him the benefit of the doubt. There’s a reason why he is still one of the favorites in the sportsbooks.

What used to be a great advantage for Elliott has now been taken from him in the Next Gen era. Drivers like Tyler Reddick, Michael McDowell, AJ Allmendinger, Daniel Suárez, Kyle Larson, Ross Chastain, William Byron, and Christopher Bell have all won road course races since the 2022 season began.

Add in the rise of Shane van Gisbergen and the road course game is only getting more difficult. Let’s also add that there are two road course races in the playoffs now, with Watkins Glen joining the Round of 16. It is set up perfectly for Elliott to march through to the championship, but the finishes aren’t there. Is there any chance Chase Elliott can be dominant again on road courses?