Chase Elliott, Bubba Wallace enter NASCAR Playoffs Round of 12 in similar positions

Despite racing for two different championships in the NASCAR Playoffs, Chase Elliott and Bubba Wallace are in a very similar situation. Both drivers find themselves as the 12th out of 12 drivers in the second round. Elliott, for that owners championship and all the money. Wallace, for his own glory, and the Bill France Cup.

Chase Elliott is 13 points below the cutline heading into Texas. Bubba Wallace has a 14-point deficit. We saw Wallace overcome a 19-point difference at Bristol to advance. But is he set up to succeed in this round? Both drivers have had their struggles in Texas. Talladega is a crap shoot. No one wants to go to the Roval needed to score big points.

They will both be racing against the same drivers and teams to advance, too. All you have to do is swap Elliott for Wallace in that 12th position, and the other 11 drivers are the same.

Both the 9 and 23 teams will be fighting to get ahead of Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, Ross Chastain, and one other driver that enters the round above the cutline. Last round, it was Joey Logano who failed to advance, despite entering above the cutline.

Chase Elliott at Texas Motor Speedway

Let’s just look at the chances these drivers have at Texas. Let’s be honest, even this track can be unpredictable. It isn’t nearly to the extent that Talladega is, but it almost ruined Elliott’s season a year ago.

Blowing a left front tire and catching on fire, Elliott was out of this race early in 2022. He led 44 laps to that point, and ended up finishing P32. In his career, Elliott started out great on the 1.5-mile oval. He rattled off four straight top-10s including two top-5 finishes in his first five races at the track. Since November 2018, Elliott only has one top-5 and one top-10 finish in nine races.

Those two finishes came in 2021 at the All-Star Race and the playoff edition of Texas. This week, he has to be better, plain and simple. With finishes of P8, P6, and P7 to start the NASCAR Playoffs, Elliott looks to be in a good position. It just hasn’t felt like he has a winning car, though, which could be an issue.

Elliott, unlike Bubba Wallace, likely expects a top-10 this weekend. Whether or not he has the speed for it remains to be seen. He has started P4 and P7 in the past two races, and that’s about where he has finished as well.

Averaging 35 points per race in the playoffs, Elliott has to maintain that level of performance if he wants to salvage this season.

Bubba Wallace in the Round of 12

Unlike Chase Elliott, this is a career-best season for Bubba Wallace. This is a nightmare season for Elliott, on the other hand. As far as the 23 team is concerned, there are a few things going for them.

Texas is another intermediate track and that means Toyota is going to be strong. Will it be Wallace’s Toyota? That remains to be seen. In the last two races, Wallace has made the final round of qualifying and started P10 and P9. Of course, that flat at Kansas ruined his chances of a top-5 or a win in the Round of 16.

Even with his back against the wall, at Daytona, at Bristol – Wallace has performed. 14 points below the cutline entering the Round of 12, is not a major deal. If he’s still down double-digits in two weeks, then it is panic time. For right now, you have to like Wallace’s chances of picking up points and possibly advancing.

At 18-1 odds, Wallace has a better chance to win than Ross Chastain. When was the last time that happened? Since Watkins Glen, that Kansas race is the only time Wallace has scored less than 30 points in a race. If he maintains that pace, he might find himself with an improbable Round of 8 appearance.

What is more likely – both Bubba Wallace and Chase Elliott advance in their respective playoff runs? Or that they both are eliminated after the Roval?