Colgate vs. Baylor odds: Win probability, final score prediction in NCAA Tournament

In the first round of the NCAA tournament’s West Region, the No. 3 seed Baylor Bears will take on the No. 14 seed Colgate Raiders.

Colgate is all too familiar with the NCAA tournament, as the program is making its fifth straight trip after winning its fifth consecutive Patriot League championship. But while the Raiders might know a thing or two about making it to the big dance with their five straight trips, they are unfamiliar with how to get out of the first round. In its four previous tries, Colgate has failed to advance to the round of 32.

Like their opponent on Friday, Baylor is quite familiar with qualifying for the men’s March Madness tournament, as this is their fifth straight trip. The only difference is that the Bears not only know how to get out of the first round but also know a thing or two about winning it all, as they captured the 2020-21 national championship. Play Sailor enters as a No. 3 seed following a 22-9 regular season and third place in the Big 12.

Odds for Baylor vs. Colgate

According to FanDuel, the Bears are huge favorites to advance to the Round of 32, being favored at -13.5 points in Friday’s game. As far as the money line for each team, Colgate sits at +810. Meanwhile, Baylor is at -450. Barring a massive collapse, FanDuel sees the Bears continuing the Raiders’ first-round woes.

The current point total for this West Region opening-round NCAA Tournament matchup has been placed at 138.5. Baylor has a team that can get up and down the floor, but experts expect Colgate to slow the tempo down quite a bit.

Final score predictions for Bears vs. Raiders

BPI Predicted winner: Baylor

BPI Predicted point differential: 13.7

BPI Win probability (for Baylor): 90.3%

BPI Matchup Quality: 72.5

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. As far as this matchup is concerned, the sports power’s BPI projects a point differential of 13.7 points in favor of Baylor while also computing an overwhelming 90.3 percent chance of victory for the Bears.

BPI also gives this quarterfinal matchup a quality score of 72.5, which is near the median in quality score for the slate of action on Friday.

KenPom Predicted final score: Baylor 77, Colgate 64
KenPom Win probability (for Baylor): 88 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time without taking factors like injuries into account. In this opening round throwdown, KenPom agrees with ESPN’s BPI and Vegas, projecting the Bears to advance to the Round of 32 in the NCAA tournament.

How to watch Baylor vs. Colgate

Time: 11:40 a.m. CT
Channel: Tru TV, Streaming on Prime Video
Location: Memphis, Tenn.

You can watch the tournament live on Prime Video, add on your favorite channels and watch at home or on your phone and laptop at work!

Baylor and Colgate will tip off at 11:40 a.m. CT. The game will take place at the FedEx Forum in Memphis, TN.

Fans who are unable to make the trip to the home area of the NBA’s Memphis Grizzlies or can’t find tickets for the game can catch all the action live courtesy of Amazon Prime Video.