College Football Playoff Odds: Early point spreads released on potential CFP quarterfinal matchups
The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff officially kicks off Friday night in South Bend with the first of four first-round matchups. The other three first-round Playoff games will be played Saturday from Austin, Columbus and State College.
But, before those opening-round games even begin, oddsmakers over at FanDuel Sportsbook are already looking ahead to the College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchups set for New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day.
Check out FanDuel Sportsbook‘s early odds on all eight potential CFP quarterfinal games:
No. 4 Penn State vs. No. 9 Boise State
FIESTA BOWL: 7:30 pm ET, Dec. 31 in Glendale, Ariz. (ABC/ESPN)
Point spread: Penn State -11.5
Over/Under: 54.5
In this projected matchup, host Penn State officially ended SMU‘s Cinderella season to advance to a quarterfinal showdown vs. Mountain West champion Boise State (12-1) and Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty. Vegas oddsmakers expect the Big Ten runner-up Nittany Lions (11-2) to win this by double-digits, but don’t count out the impact a motivated Jeanty will have just 131 yards shy of Barry Sanders‘ NCAA single-season rushing record.
No. 9 Boise State vs. No. 10 SMU
FIESTA BOWL: 7:30 pm ET, Dec. 31 in Glendale, Ariz. (ABC/ESPN)
Point spread: SMU -6.5
Over/Under: 59.5
In this scenario, SMU (11-2) keeps dancing in its Cinderella season as the Mustangs upset host Penn State to take on the Mountain West champion Broncos in Arizona. This matchup would pit Jeanty against SMU’s ACC-leading run defense that held opponents to just 93.38 yards per game this season. That’s nearly 100 yards less than Jeanty’s NCAA-leading rushing average (192.08), though oddsmakers give the nod to the Mustangs’ defense.
No. 3 Texas vs. No. 12 Arizona State
PEACH BOWL: 1 pm ET, Jan. 1 in Atlanta, Ga. (ABC/ESPN)
Point spread: Texas -13.5
Over/Under: 51.5
The SEC runner-up Longhorns return to Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium, site of the SEC Championship in early December, looking to avenge its second-straight loss to Georgia against Big 12 champion Arizona State (11-2). These two have only ever met once before, in the 2007 Holiday Bowl when Colt McCoy and Jamaal Charles dominated the Sun Devils in a 52-34 blowout. Vegas oddsmakers believe Texas (11-2) could be in for another two-score win over Arizona State this time around.
No. 12 Arizona State vs. No. 16 Clemson
PEACH BOWL: 1 pm ET, Jan. 1 in Atlanta, Ga. (ABC/ESPN)
Point spread: Clemson -4.5
Over/Under: 53.5
This would be a matchup between two surprise conference champions after both the Tigers and Sun Devils parlayed late-season success into the ACC and Big 12 titles in 2024. Vegas oddsmakers slightly favor Clemson (10-3), despite the strong play of Arizona State RB Cam Skattebo, who has combined for 494 rushing yards and eight touchdowns over the Sun Devils’ last three games.
No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 7 Tennessee
ROSE BOWL: 5 pm ET, Jan. 1 in Pasadena, Calif. (ABC/ESPN)
Point spread: Oregon -4.5
Over/Under: 52.5
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In this scenario, the undefeated Ducks (13-0) would look to keep rolling against a Volunteers squad that took care of business in their first-round matchup at Ohio State. But while some Buckeyes fans will be calling for Ryan Day‘s head, Josh Heupel and Tennessee (10-2) will be seeking a second-straight win over the Big Ten’s best. Still, oddsmakers are confident Oregon will be flying into the CFP semifinals.
No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 6 Ohio State
ROSE BOWL: 5 pm ET, Jan. 1 in Pasadena, Calif. (ABC/ESPN)
Point spread: Oregon -1.5
Over/Under: 53.5
This would be a rematch of their regular-season showdown from mid-October when Heisman Trophy-finalist QB Dillon Gabriel rallied the Ducks not once but twice in a 32-31 victory in Eugene. Vegas oddsmakers believe it’ll be another barnburner, though they continue to give a slight 1.5-point advantage to Oregon (13-0) over Ohio State (10-2) in the all-Big Ten Rose Bowl.
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 8 Indiana
SUGAR BOWL: 8:45 pm ET, Jan. 1 in New Orleans, La. (ABC/ESPN)
Point spread: Georgia -6.5
Over/Under: 52.5
In this scenario, the Hoosiers (11-1) shock not only the state of Indiana but the college football world by upending the Fighting Irish’s 10-game win at home to even make the CFP quarterfinals. But oddsmakers believe Indiana‘s run will end in New Orleans, giving the early nod to the SEC champion Bulldogs (11-2), even without starting QB Carson Beck, who is expected to miss time with a UCL injury.
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 5 Notre Dame
SUGAR BOWL: 8:45 pm ET, Jan. 1 in New Orleans, La. (ABC/ESPN)
Point spread: Notre Dame -1.5
Over/Under: 46.5
If the Fighting Irish (11-1) hold serve at home and knock off the Hoosiers on Friday, that sets up a Sugar Bowl date with the SEC champion Bulldogs. This is where Vegas is projecting the first real quarterfinal upset as Notre Dame‘s elite defense takes advantage of a banged-up Georgia not having its starting quarterback and escapes with a close win in New Orleans. Clearly oddsmakers aren’t quite sold on Gunner Stockton.