College football predictions: JD PicKell gives picks for top Week 5 games

Get ready for more college football predictions for the biggest games of Week 5 of the 2024 season as On3’s JD PicKell gave us the must-watch games.

There are some big headliners but some absurd lines. Still here at On3, no one will shy away from making picks even with lines that might make you look twice.

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PicKell broke down the biggest games of the weekend on The Hard Count and made his predictions. Let’s dive in.

Virginia Tech (+18.5) at Miami

PicKell: “Freaky Friday action … Miami -18.5 over Virginia Tech … Miami’s rolling right now. But again, Friday night, little bit of, like I said, a little bit of Freaky Friday … I’m just saying Friday night all bets are off. It is scientifically proven. Weird things happen on Friday nights when you play a college football game. But again, Miami, they’re rolling right now … The question I have for them, everything has been as advertised at this point. The Florida game got the hype train rolling. Haven’t really played anybody since then. 

“This week, now, short week, can you be business like? On a different routine with a now ramped up level of competition that you’re going to play, because Virginia Tech … You’re playing an ACC opponent, and Virginia Tech, man, they are a lot better than I think their record indicates.”

Miami is a heavy favorite in this game for a reason. The high powered attack led by Cam Ward is one of the best shows in college football. Hosting this game on Friday night just means more buzz in South Florida.

Virginia Tech has some pieces and some close losses. So, as PicKell pointed out, perhaps the Hokies are a little better than the 2-2 record would suggest. While the On3 host wanted to really give Virginia Tech more credit, he’s leaning Miami in this one. However, he likes Virginia Tech to cover.

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Oklahoma (-2.5) at Auburn

PicKell: “We got Oklahoma going to Auburn, Alabama, 3:30 eastern, ABC, Jordan Hare. I think this atmosphere is going to be electric. And I understand Oklahoma looked a little bit lackluster against Tennessee. Auburn has been extremely lackluster to this point this season against power four conference opponents. This one has college football sickos written all over it. I mean, this is a major pulse check game for both sides. 

“Auburn, all kinds of alerts going off on the car. Like, you know, whenever you’re driving your car, you see the check engine light come on? You drive it for a little bit longer and hope that light goes off? That was kind of what Auburn did with the whole Peyton Thorne situation. Switch to Hank Brown, okay hopefully the check engine light goes away, but instead you had the change the oil light come on, you had the low tire pressure alert come on. Like there’s a bunch of alerts going on right now within the Auburn vehicle. We’ll see who’s playing quarterback for them this week.”

Both teams have quarterback issues in terms of musical chairs. Oklahoma will start freshman Michael Hawkins over Jackson Arnold. Meanwhile, Hugh Freeze benched Payton Thorne for Hank Brown but that decision is TBD for Saturday.

As PicKell pointed out, he likes the way Hawkins plays the position and what he showed against Tennessee last weekend. However, Auburn has seen this movie before, as in the style of QB, based on the game against Arkansas Saturday.

PicKell is leaning towards Oklahoma on the road to win outright, 24-21. By that logic as he says, the Sooners will cover.

Georgia (-2.5) at Alabama

PicKell: “Georgia -2.5, headed to Tuscaloosa, Alabama to play the brand new Crimson Tide under Kalen DeBoer … This is what you signed up for both as a college football fan, when you get introduced to this sport, it’s games like this that grab your attention, that put you down in the seat and say ‘This is why you fall in love with college football.’ Matchups like this, brands like this, heck, head coaches like this. And then if you’re committing to either Alabama or Georgia out of high school, you go there to play in games like this, College GameDay, primetime, Herbstreit and Fowler. Like this is the movie of the weekend … We’ve seen the Kalen DeBoer-led Alabama a few games right now. We’ve seen against USF. Saw them throttle Wisconsin in Camp Randall, a good test to pass. But who are they? Who is this new Alabama? 

“Because this is the kind of game where, if you were a Crimson Tide fan, you had a lot of confidence going in. Yes, because it’s at home, yes, because of the way the past few games against Georgia have gone, but more specifically, because you had the GOAT on the sideline. “You had Nick Saban making sure your game plan throughout the week (was good), your focus was right where it needed to be, and you just felt like somehow, some way, he was going to put you in position to win that football game. Nick Saban will be in Tuscaloosa. He will be on the College GameDay desk. He will not be on the sideline. So for Kalen DeBoer, I’m fascinated to watch how this Alabama team attacks the moment.”

This is the biggest game of the weekend, by far. If you go by the AP Poll rankings, it’s No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama. A top four matchup before October, with these teams? Sign us up.

PicKell was fired up too, considering this could be an SEC title game preview. We didn’t forget about you Texas fans, we just said “could.” Both are certainly playoff teams at the moment though.

PicKell wants to pick Alabama because the Crimson Tide arguably have the best athlete on the field: Jalen Milroe. But there’s a holdup as both teams come off bye weeks. He’s leaning towards Carson Beck, a better running game and Kirby Smart over Kalen DeBoer. PicKell picked Georgia 27-24, thereby covering on the road.

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas (+3.5)

PicKell: “Arkansas, Texas A&M, the Southwest Classic in Jerry World … Arkansas, to me, feels a lot like that Paul Rudd meme right now. Paul Rudd from Hot Ones when he walks in there, and there’s that clip where he says, ‘Hey, look at us. Who would have thought, Who would have thought, not me?’ And would I say, not me, not I. I wouldn’t have thought. I think Sam Pittman probably thought. But like the way Arkansas is rolling right now, they should be undefeated. 

“If you watched an Oklahoma State game, they were up at Oklahoma State. They were having their way with Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma State did what good, experienced teams  do under Mike Gundy at home, found a way to get it done. But Arkansas is not like last year’s Arkansas. Everyone was talking about Sam Pittman being done at the end of last year, and he’s a dead man walking. I’m like, I don’t see that. I see Arkansas being a really tough freaking out with Taylen Green at quarterback.”

Here it is, Aggies and Razorbacks in Jerry World (home of the Dallas Cowboys). The Southwest Classic is always must-see TV. The biggest key for PicKell? Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed.

Conner Weigman is a game-time decision for the Aggies according to Mike Elko. But if the Aggies have a chance, they need Reed, per PicKell. Otherwise he’s going with moneyline with Arkansas. PicKell won’t wait though as he’s taking Arkansas to win outright.

Taylen Green is a big factor at QB for the Razorbacks. So it’ll be the Hawgs winning in Jerry World.

Louisville (+6.5) at Notre Dame

PicKell: “Notre Dame’s a 6.5 point favorite … This will be very, very telling for us about who Notre Dame is, because I feel about Notre Dame in the same way that I think most folks felt about Slim Shady for a long time. Will the real Fighting Irish please stand up? Because they’ve been up and down all over this season. Against A&M, I’m like, they were a College Football Playoff team. Don’t even worry about Notre Dame the rest of the way. And then they play NIU, and they lose that one. And you’re like, where’s Notre Dame? I don’t even know what planet Notre Dame is on today. And then they go and play Purdue, and you’re like, okay … we’re back. And then you play Miami of Ohio …  and just look sloppy, man. Just very, very sloppy. And they found a way to win the game … 

“Notre Dame also a little bit dinged up on defense. You hate that for them. This game last year now, was the game that really soured the season for Notre Dame when they went to Louisville. And I think there’s enough people on this roster still from that squad last year. Riley Leonard wasn’t there, Beaux Collins wasn’t there. But still, there’s enough guys a part of this Marcus Freeman team from last year where you would hope they remember that and hope that feels personal.”

PicKell pointed out Riley Leonard running the football is key to this one. If the QB can take the air out of Louisville with his legs, it’s going to be tough for the Cardinals to keep up. But again, Notre Dame is very inconsistent this year.

Those “symptoms,” as PicKell said, could show up as a sickness. And that could happen this week. So here it is: PicKell is picking Louisville outright on the road.